11-12-2021, 10:04 PM
(11-12-2021, 01:24 PM)Lorcan Wrote:(11-12-2021, 12:50 PM)M T Wrote: In case someone didn't get that, both men & women XC take first at the Regionals.
The West Regional looks like it was slightly weaker this year than it has been in the past.
We're probably going to see the national title go to New Mexico. They just trounced Colorado and BYU who are both in the Top 4 nationally at the Mountain Regional winning by about 20 points. I'd say that North Carolina State has an outside shot as well, but Colorado and BYU are right up there if they have a good day at nationals. For reference, Colorado scored just 24 points en route to winning Pac-12's and couldn't even win their regional.
#1 NC State has more than an "outside shot." Nothing happened today to change that they're the favorite. More generally, you're over-reading into today's results. A lot of top teams, including Stanford's men today as an example, do not run regionals all-out. Nats is in 8 days and this is just a qualifying meet. Barring an epic collapse, Stanford men and other such teams had no chance of *not* qualifying but still need to participate in a fairly casual way (let's call it a "strong tempo"). Top 5 in the West Region went through, and Stanford didn't even bother winning two years ago before destroying the regional winner (Portland) at Nats. I didn't see today's race, but I guarantee that Hicks and Teare were just cruising at the end.
My only concerns for Stanford's men are that Boyden is still out and Cole Sprout was surprisingly far back. Don't know if Sprout had some reason for that (maybe he has a cold or a niggle?), but that didn't bode well. On the plus side, Hart ran well and we need him not to tank the last 2k like he has been doing all season. I'm worried about a legitimate 5th at Nats without Boyden.
Stanford women were different. They have woefully underperformed all season, some of it injury-related, and needed to finish top 2 to get through as they almost certainly weren't going to be selected as an at-large pick. Nice to see JHey back in form. Seems like it has been a while! But they're not making any noise at Nats. Don't have the depth.
