[BillBradley]

I think the whole conversation about Tara pulling players too quickly when they foul, as if this is some kind of punishment for the player, is completely off base.

It is my understanding that Tara pulls players after they foul not to "punish" them for fouling or even to teach them how not to foul (although that might be a side benefit) but because statistically it is far more likely that they will pick up a second foul quickly if left in.  Once a ref starts watching a particular player, they often call two fouls in a row.  Taking the player out--even if only for a short time--breaks that ref's immediate attention to that player.

The players must know this.  It is in their own interest to come out of the game after each foul to stop the refs watching them too carefully.

This is just another example of what Tara knows that most fans do not.  She was deeply into analytics before that became a word in basketball.

Once a ref starts watching a particular player, they often call two fouls in a row.  Taking the player out--even if only for a short time--breaks that ref's immediate attention to that player.

Do you have some statistics to support that?  Common sense tells me all refs would publicly say they apply rules in an even-handed manner throughout the game.   It would be helpful to see statistical proof that refs are more inclined to call two fouls in a row on a player.


...because statistically it is far more likely that they will pick up a second foul quickly if left in.

I'd be interested to see statistics on this. The premise goes against human nature.  Usually a foul is considered a mistake.  Generally speaking human beings are less inclined to repeat a mistake when the mistake is fresh in their mind. At best I would expect a random distribution of the time intervals between when a player fouls and then commits a subsequent foul.

That is how one of the assistant coaches explained it at a chalk talk years ago.  I no longer remember which one it was.  I have no statistics to back this up but I am sure the coaching staff does, or they would not do it.  I just took the coaches' word for it.  It does seems to conform with my experience watching as a fan.  Getting two quick fouls is a common occurrence, and the second has sometimes come while Tara is trying to get the player subbed out.

Even if the coaches were wrong about their analytics, the explanation nonetheless has to change the players' mindset about these substitutions, since they believe that their coaches are protecting them.

I think the rationale holds up. Even if there's no statistical support, the players know that it's a hot button for Tara and she sticks to it, so...better learn how to defend without fouling. Move your feet, arms straight up, etc. Other coaches have a quick trigger on things like turnovers. So...don't turn it over.

[BillBradley]

I think the whole conversation about Tara pulling players too quickly when they foul, as if this is some kind of punishment for the player, is completely off base.

It is my understanding that Tara pulls players after they foul not to "punish" them for fouling or even to teach them how not to foul (although that might be a side benefit) but because statistically it is far more likely that they will pick up a second foul quickly if left in.  Once a ref starts watching a particular player, they often call two fouls in a row.  Taking the player out--even if only for a short time--breaks that ref's immediate attention to that player.

The players must know this.  It is in their own interest to come out of the game after each foul to stop the refs watching them too carefully.

This is just another example of what Tara knows that most fans do not.  She was deeply into analytics before that became a word in basketball.

Once a ref starts watching a particular player, they often call two fouls in a row.  Taking the player out--even if only for a short time--breaks that ref's immediate attention to that player.

Do you have some statistics to support that?  Common sense tells me all refs would publicly say they apply rules in an even-handed manner throughout the game.   It would be helpful to see statistical proof that refs are more inclined to call two fouls in a row on a player.


...because statistically it is far more likely that they will pick up a second foul quickly if left in.

I'd be interested to see statistics on this. The premise goes against human nature.  Usually a foul is considered a mistake.  Generally speaking human beings are less inclined to repeat a mistake when the mistake is fresh in their mind. At best I would expect a random distribution of the time intervals between when a player fouls and then commits a subsequent foul.

That is how one of the assistant coaches explained it at a chalk talk years ago.  I no longer remember which one it was.  I have no statistics to back this up but I am sure the coaching staff does, or they would not do it.  I just took the coaches' word for it.  It does seems to conform with my experience watching as a fan.  Getting two quick fouls is a common occurrence, and the second has sometimes come while Tara is trying to get the player subbed out.

Even if the coaches were wrong about their analytics, the explanation nonetheless has to change the players' mindset about these substitutions, since they believe that their coaches are protecting them.

I think the rationale holds up. Even if there's no statistical support, the players know that it's a hot button for Tara and she sticks to it, so...better learn how to defend without fouling. Move your feet, arms straight up, etc. Other coaches have a quick trigger on things like turnovers. So...don't turn it over.