[murky]

You're really reaching trying to equate the two. One has coached for over a decade, resulting in some incredible seasons, some really solid seasons, and 2 really bad seasons. The other hasn't done squat. It may turn out that Shaw has seen his best days, but the overall bodies of work of these two coaches are nowhere close.

How long before the "overall body of work" no longer suffices as an argument? 2 more years of crap? 3? 5? 10?

Sort of depends, I guess, on how bad the crap smells. If he only wins a couple games for 2 straight years, then yes, IMO the "overall body of work" argument is out the window. But he could go .500 for a bunch of years before the AD would act. 

Backatcha - what's your take on the counter question? What would it take for him to get back in everyone's good graces? If he wins the P12 north in the next 3 years, is that enough? What is?

If he wins the P12 north in the next 3 years, that would both surprise the ever-loving s*** out of me and certainly buy him a lot more time. I just have zero faith that happens.

The other question is whether he wins the P12 north and the other 2 seasons are still crap...what then? I don't know if we've really seen examples of teams doing that, though.

Didn't Willingham do something like that, in the Pac 10.  Went to the Rose Bowl after 2 losing seasons.

[murky]

You're really reaching trying to equate the two. One has coached for over a decade, resulting in some incredible seasons, some really solid seasons, and 2 really bad seasons. The other hasn't done squat. It may turn out that Shaw has seen his best days, but the overall bodies of work of these two coaches are nowhere close.

How long before the "overall body of work" no longer suffices as an argument? 2 more years of crap? 3? 5? 10?

Sort of depends, I guess, on how bad the crap smells. If he only wins a couple games for 2 straight years, then yes, IMO the "overall body of work" argument is out the window. But he could go .500 for a bunch of years before the AD would act. 

Backatcha - what's your take on the counter question? What would it take for him to get back in everyone's good graces? If he wins the P12 north in the next 3 years, is that enough? What is?

If he wins the P12 north in the next 3 years, that would both surprise the ever-loving s*** out of me and certainly buy him a lot more time. I just have zero faith that happens.

The other question is whether he wins the P12 north and the other 2 seasons are still crap...what then? I don't know if we've really seen examples of teams doing that, though.

Didn't Willingham do something like that, in the Pac 10.  Went to the Rose Bowl after 2 losing seasons.