03-21-2022, 03:04 PM
After an easy first game and a second game that started badly and ended in a rout, our women have a tough path ahead of them to defend their national championship. I am discouraged by the flame-out of P12 teams - Colorado and Oregon were the most disappointing. Now only Stanford and Arizona remain, and UA has to win tonight to move on.
When down to 16 teams, obviously we have to beat 4 of the best teams to win the NC. It looks to me that among the #1 seeds, Stanford and NC State have the toughest path to the Final Four as the Greensboro and Wichita regionals had upsets whereas the Spokane and Bridgeport regionals have all the 2,3, and 4 seeds remaining. We face a good Maryland (who webeat earlier, but they were short-handed), and if we beat them, we will get a rematch with Texas (who beat us) or the winner of LSU/Ohio State. I don't know much about LSU, but a Kim Mulkey coached team is always tough. Ohio State is a mystery to me. Based on what I have seen, Texas looks like the team to emerge from the Sweet 16 into the Elite 8. Then if we can take down Texas (or LSU/Ohio St.), we will likely face the winner of NC State/UConn in the Final Four. Oklahoma and Indiana are the other two most likely. Anything can happen, but NC State and UConn seem too talented to be upset by OK or Ind.
Getting by the high octane O of MD and the 40 minute high pressure of Texas is quite a challenge for us. Then we will have to face either elite team NC State or UConn. NC State looks to me like a complete team. Watching them play Kansas St., they started slow but now are dominating - did so without their AA post who got 2 early fouls. UConn is a sleeper IMO. Now that they are healthy, their talent and depth is daunting. If we win in the semis, we will likely play the tournament prohibitive favorite, South Carolina in the finals for the NC. I would love to have that happen as I believe that we match up well with SC and I respect their team.
As I'm sure Tara has drilled into the team, our women have to take it one game at a time, so the projections above are only meant to emphasize how difficult it is to win the NC. As good and strong as we are, nothing can be taken for granted. Bottom line for our success as we all know, we will need to handle the styles of play which are extremely aggressive and high pressure. We've learned to handle teams playing real physical and we actually canplay real physical too. But if the refs let them play without calling fouls, a super aggressive and high pressure D team may cause us too many turnovers and take us out of offense.
Despite my concerns regarding the quality of opponents we will need to beat, it's clearly true that to be the best, you have to beat quality teams. From a positive standpoint and why I like our chances, we have a few critical strengths.
First, we all know how deep we are, but our depth is even more significant by being so balanced. A good example was when Wilson got two early fouls. Tara had a range of options at replacement PGs including going big and letting Haley run the offense. We are best with Anna at PG, but the point is that our depth allows Tara to do all kinds of match ups that are best against an opponent and keep us competitive if a starter has to sit with fouls. Another example is Tara had Belibi and Prechtel on the floor at the same time. Tara obviously wanted a physical and size presence to counter Kansas. The beauty of it was that on offense, Fran is almost exclusively a low post threat while Ashten can hang out at the 3 point line and be a threat there. Same with playing Brink and Kiki at the same time. So even going bigger, we present a diverse offense. Overall, we have a nice mix of players with a variety of skills and abilities, so Tara can balance out our O and D as she sees fit.
Second, I am totally impressed with how many different players can step up and be major factors. As commentators have noted, opponents cannot effectively focus on one or two of our players because we can score with anyone and from anywhere. Sure, Brink, Jones, and Lexie are our first options who typically can take over games. But it can be more than one of them. Moreover, if teams focus on that trio and leave Anna, Lacie, or Jump open, those guards will bury the other team. Then we also have a number of scoring weapons that come off the bench. The only way teams slow us down is if they play tight defense on all fice of our players. Packing in and forcing us to beat them from the outside has not worked because we either have shot well, or if we miss, rebounded well, or find openings for back door plays.
Third, our team has great chemistry, on the court and apparently off the court too. That's a brobdingnagian plus. I normally don't like too much mixing and matching of lineups on the floor, but with this team, many of the players have played together for a long time and know how to adapt to each other. And because we have often won by large margins, almost every player has gotten a significant amount of PT including time with starters and the first few off the bench. Some may think Tara is being cliche about emphasizing how much these players are a real team and are all in together, except it's so true and thye really epitomize the team concept.
Finally, our players have tremendous experience, not just playing, but more importantly playing on the big stage, playing under pressure, and playing in tight games. Everyone experiences more adrenaline and emotions when the stakes are highest, but our women have been through it and caan handle it as well or better than the field.
In the end, as I'm sure Tara knows and emphasizes with the team, playing strong defense and rebounding are keys for consistent high level play. For offense, we need to do the things taught to handle high pressure D. If we do those things, our advantages will make us successful defending our national title. Looking forward to the next game, one at a time.
When down to 16 teams, obviously we have to beat 4 of the best teams to win the NC. It looks to me that among the #1 seeds, Stanford and NC State have the toughest path to the Final Four as the Greensboro and Wichita regionals had upsets whereas the Spokane and Bridgeport regionals have all the 2,3, and 4 seeds remaining. We face a good Maryland (who webeat earlier, but they were short-handed), and if we beat them, we will get a rematch with Texas (who beat us) or the winner of LSU/Ohio State. I don't know much about LSU, but a Kim Mulkey coached team is always tough. Ohio State is a mystery to me. Based on what I have seen, Texas looks like the team to emerge from the Sweet 16 into the Elite 8. Then if we can take down Texas (or LSU/Ohio St.), we will likely face the winner of NC State/UConn in the Final Four. Oklahoma and Indiana are the other two most likely. Anything can happen, but NC State and UConn seem too talented to be upset by OK or Ind.
Getting by the high octane O of MD and the 40 minute high pressure of Texas is quite a challenge for us. Then we will have to face either elite team NC State or UConn. NC State looks to me like a complete team. Watching them play Kansas St., they started slow but now are dominating - did so without their AA post who got 2 early fouls. UConn is a sleeper IMO. Now that they are healthy, their talent and depth is daunting. If we win in the semis, we will likely play the tournament prohibitive favorite, South Carolina in the finals for the NC. I would love to have that happen as I believe that we match up well with SC and I respect their team.
As I'm sure Tara has drilled into the team, our women have to take it one game at a time, so the projections above are only meant to emphasize how difficult it is to win the NC. As good and strong as we are, nothing can be taken for granted. Bottom line for our success as we all know, we will need to handle the styles of play which are extremely aggressive and high pressure. We've learned to handle teams playing real physical and we actually canplay real physical too. But if the refs let them play without calling fouls, a super aggressive and high pressure D team may cause us too many turnovers and take us out of offense.
Despite my concerns regarding the quality of opponents we will need to beat, it's clearly true that to be the best, you have to beat quality teams. From a positive standpoint and why I like our chances, we have a few critical strengths.
First, we all know how deep we are, but our depth is even more significant by being so balanced. A good example was when Wilson got two early fouls. Tara had a range of options at replacement PGs including going big and letting Haley run the offense. We are best with Anna at PG, but the point is that our depth allows Tara to do all kinds of match ups that are best against an opponent and keep us competitive if a starter has to sit with fouls. Another example is Tara had Belibi and Prechtel on the floor at the same time. Tara obviously wanted a physical and size presence to counter Kansas. The beauty of it was that on offense, Fran is almost exclusively a low post threat while Ashten can hang out at the 3 point line and be a threat there. Same with playing Brink and Kiki at the same time. So even going bigger, we present a diverse offense. Overall, we have a nice mix of players with a variety of skills and abilities, so Tara can balance out our O and D as she sees fit.
Second, I am totally impressed with how many different players can step up and be major factors. As commentators have noted, opponents cannot effectively focus on one or two of our players because we can score with anyone and from anywhere. Sure, Brink, Jones, and Lexie are our first options who typically can take over games. But it can be more than one of them. Moreover, if teams focus on that trio and leave Anna, Lacie, or Jump open, those guards will bury the other team. Then we also have a number of scoring weapons that come off the bench. The only way teams slow us down is if they play tight defense on all fice of our players. Packing in and forcing us to beat them from the outside has not worked because we either have shot well, or if we miss, rebounded well, or find openings for back door plays.
Third, our team has great chemistry, on the court and apparently off the court too. That's a brobdingnagian plus. I normally don't like too much mixing and matching of lineups on the floor, but with this team, many of the players have played together for a long time and know how to adapt to each other. And because we have often won by large margins, almost every player has gotten a significant amount of PT including time with starters and the first few off the bench. Some may think Tara is being cliche about emphasizing how much these players are a real team and are all in together, except it's so true and thye really epitomize the team concept.
Finally, our players have tremendous experience, not just playing, but more importantly playing on the big stage, playing under pressure, and playing in tight games. Everyone experiences more adrenaline and emotions when the stakes are highest, but our women have been through it and caan handle it as well or better than the field.
In the end, as I'm sure Tara knows and emphasizes with the team, playing strong defense and rebounding are keys for consistent high level play. For offense, we need to do the things taught to handle high pressure D. If we do those things, our advantages will make us successful defending our national title. Looking forward to the next game, one at a time.