A few thoughts:
A Shaw-determined graceful (or as graceful as record allows) exit remains more likely than him being fired.
To the extent Shaw ever faces accountability or, heaven forfend, firing, it will be more in the "we'll know it when we see it" realm than any particular win/loss threshold. In our history when coaches (Wiggin, Teevens, Harris) have run out of goodwill it's been because the players, or at least an influential/vocal subset, turn on the coach and take their concerns to powers-that-be. That remains the most likely thing to move an administration that loves to pat itself on the back for running the program for the benefit of the student-athletes and for not being like the football factories. But we (and few teams in history) have any history with the program's GOAT reaching this point, plus the transfer portal now allows a safety valve for disenchanted players (thus decreasing the likelihood team leaders would go to the administration), which are among the reasons the Shaw-determined exit remains more likely.
Regarding what it will take to return to respectability, I think at a very bare minimum it has to be a Willingham-level of success, which means winning seasons more than half the time. Less than six wins in any year is bad. The pressure will, and absolutely should, rise on Shaw if 2022 is a losing season.
A Shaw-determined graceful (or as graceful as record allows) exit remains more likely than him being fired.
To the extent Shaw ever faces accountability or, heaven forfend, firing, it will be more in the "we'll know it when we see it" realm than any particular win/loss threshold. In our history when coaches (Wiggin, Teevens, Harris) have run out of goodwill it's been because the players, or at least an influential/vocal subset, turn on the coach and take their concerns to powers-that-be. That remains the most likely thing to move an administration that loves to pat itself on the back for running the program for the benefit of the student-athletes and for not being like the football factories. But we (and few teams in history) have any history with the program's GOAT reaching this point, plus the transfer portal now allows a safety valve for disenchanted players (thus decreasing the likelihood team leaders would go to the administration), which are among the reasons the Shaw-determined exit remains more likely.
Regarding what it will take to return to respectability, I think at a very bare minimum it has to be a Willingham-level of success, which means winning seasons more than half the time. Less than six wins in any year is bad. The pressure will, and absolutely should, rise on Shaw if 2022 is a losing season.