[Goose]

Something to keep in mind is that this exercise, because we're talking about what to expect from McKee, looked at QBs in their third year. As it happened, Elway's third year was his worst as a starter. Elway's second and fourth years would have been behind only Luck, Costello, and Hogan's third years. Elway slumped in 1981. Throwing an interception on every 28th pass does not strike me as doing a great job protecting the ball.
<snip>
Nonetheless, I think QB rating tells us something about what these QBs were doing in terms of the combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, overall yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. I don't see how one can look at the results and think Elway as a third year player was a better college player that one season than Costello, for instance. Again, that was a bad year for Elway and the high point for Costello. I am not saying Costello was a better college player generally. But this stat has some insight.

This is a place I think context matters. Obviously based on his previous and subsequent years Elway knew how to avoid interceptions. This is the reason for my statement that Elway had to take chances others didn't. The coach could have reigned him in, but did not because the coach also believed that to win games that year, Stanford had to take even more chances than usual.
"Modern" football argues that protecting the ball is always a good idea and that if you throw interceptions you are going to lose. However, if your win probability is essentially zero if you don't take some risks, you might as well give it a shot. You will win some games you otherwise would have lost. One also has to consider "arm punts", which Elway had many.  At that point in history, Elway could run and extend the play. Lots of the interceptions were caused by the receiver not catching the ball. The play had broken down and nobody knew what to expect. Elway totally missed/hit quite a few guys in the back because they turned up field or stopped unexpectedly. If you put KJ in Elway's place, I am pretty sure you would see plenty more interceptions from him too, as his later career demonstrated.

Jim Plunkett did in fact throw quite a few interceptions, often for the same reasons as Elway. His career in the NFL had, I think, as similar character. Certainly the Raiders with The Mad Bomber and The Snake took lots of chances before Plunkett got there. It is not as if teams didn't value ball security "back in the day". The Rose Bowl that Stanford won with JP was against a team who carried that to extremes. One has to consider the pass that basically won the game was thrown after the play broke down (Plunkett was running to the right to escape pressure) to a receiver (Bob Moore) that was actually reasonably well covered (bracketed by two defenders). As Woody Hayes said, it was "A mad-dog pass". The experience of losing to U$C twice when you had done everything right can definitely reinforce the idea that if you play "conservative" you will get beat. OJ was going to go down the field. You better too. I don't think the QB rating contains a factor for that.

[Goose]

Something to keep in mind is that this exercise, because we're talking about what to expect from McKee, looked at QBs in their third year. As it happened, Elway's third year was his worst as a starter. Elway's second and fourth years would have been behind only Luck, Costello, and Hogan's third years. Elway slumped in 1981. Throwing an interception on every 28th pass does not strike me as doing a great job protecting the ball.
<snip>
Nonetheless, I think QB rating tells us something about what these QBs were doing in terms of the combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, overall yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. I don't see how one can look at the results and think Elway as a third year player was a better college player that one season than Costello, for instance. Again, that was a bad year for Elway and the high point for Costello. I am not saying Costello was a better college player generally. But this stat has some insight.

This is a place I think context matters. Obviously based on his previous and subsequent years Elway knew how to avoid interceptions. This is the reason for my statement that Elway had to take chances others didn't. The coach could have reigned him in, but did not because the coach also believed that to win games that year, Stanford had to take even more chances than usual.
"Modern" football argues that protecting the ball is always a good idea and that if you throw interceptions you are going to lose. However, if your win probability is essentially zero if you don't take some risks, you might as well give it a shot. You will win some games you otherwise would have lost. One also has to consider "arm punts", which Elway had many.  At that point in history, Elway could run and extend the play. Lots of the interceptions were caused by the receiver not catching the ball. The play had broken down and nobody knew what to expect. Elway totally missed/hit quite a few guys in the back because they turned up field or stopped unexpectedly. If you put KJ in Elway's place, I am pretty sure you would see plenty more interceptions from him too, as his later career demonstrated.

Jim Plunkett did in fact throw quite a few interceptions, often for the same reasons as Elway. His career in the NFL had, I think, as similar character. Certainly the Raiders with The Mad Bomber and The Snake took lots of chances before Plunkett got there. It is not as if teams didn't value ball security "back in the day". The Rose Bowl that Stanford won with JP was against a team who carried that to extremes. One has to consider the pass that basically won the game was thrown after the play broke down (Plunkett was running to the right to escape pressure) to a receiver (Bob Moore) that was actually reasonably well covered (bracketed by two defenders). As Woody Hayes said, it was "A mad-dog pass". The experience of losing to U$C twice when you had done everything right can definitely reinforce the idea that if you play "conservative" you will get beat. OJ was going to go down the field. You better too. I don't think the QB rating contains a factor for that.