[msqueri]

By citing the bottom of the roster, you are using the benefit of hindsight.  The 80th through 85th recruits aren’t necessarily the 80th through 85th players on the roster, given the uncertain translatability between recruiting rankings and eventual outcome.  And while the last guys on the roster are unlikely to be stars (though there are notable exceptions, like Ben Gardner), we are talking about depth, where we do benefit from more shots on goal.  I think that there’s a pretty good chance that had we filled our scholarship quota to 85 consistently, that a couple of those counterfactual players might have been meaningful contributors had they been on the roster.



There’s a reason that imposing scholarship limits is viewed as a punishment for NCAA violations.  If your average school could laugh it off, then it wouldn’t be imposed.  But scholarship reductions are one of the more meaningful punishments that the NCAA metes out, and it’s the one schools really don’t want.



BC

I wasn't citing the bottom of the roster or using the benefit of hindsight, I was citing the most marginal guys in each class. If I were using the benefit of hindsight there would have been Plan A guys I could have cited like Colby Bowman, Lukas Ungar, Mitch Leigber, etc. You misunderstand me: the guys I picked out are exactly the kind of guys we'd be without if we didn't fill our scholarships. As an outsider I can't know exactly who the most marginal guy in each class is, but I assure you that the marginal guys Shaw has brought on in the last decade haven't been big boons to depth. I agree with the logic of your post, but in reality the guys Shaw fills out the 80th-85th spots with - not based on hindsight - aren't becoming meaningful contributors like you think they are.

If you look at Shaw's recruiting ever since the incredible 2012 class (for which the players who weren't reputed to be no doubt about it Power Five guys, like Caspers and Rector, turned out to be amazing takes), what you'll see is that Shaw tends to fill out classes as far as he can with guys who aren't stretches. Oftentimes when a guy does seem like a stretch it's because we can't do better at that position, like our 2022 ILB recruits Rose and Hudson, not marginal recruits we're adding just to get to 85 scholarships. The true flyer/marginal recruits haven't been helpful hardly whatsoever - Paxton Segina, Dorian Maddox (arguably more of the Rose/Hudson category anyway), Jay Tyler, Caleb Kelly.

Again, not hindsight, just looking at when Shaw has/hasn't filled space with marginal guys. I think Shaw coached long enough at Stanford to know that getting somebody like these guys is not really any more valuable than leaving the spot open to reward a walk-on. If you're at 84 scholarships, does it help you to add one of these guys for depth? Nah.

It basically boils down to this: you fill the roster with guys in your most cold-eyed assessment you think will make your team better. If you can only get to 82/83/84 of those guys, it's not really leaving meat on the bone to refrain from concocting a case that the marginal guy really helps you.

[msqueri]

By citing the bottom of the roster, you are using the benefit of hindsight.  The 80th through 85th recruits aren’t necessarily the 80th through 85th players on the roster, given the uncertain translatability between recruiting rankings and eventual outcome.  And while the last guys on the roster are unlikely to be stars (though there are notable exceptions, like Ben Gardner), we are talking about depth, where we do benefit from more shots on goal.  I think that there’s a pretty good chance that had we filled our scholarship quota to 85 consistently, that a couple of those counterfactual players might have been meaningful contributors had they been on the roster.



There’s a reason that imposing scholarship limits is viewed as a punishment for NCAA violations.  If your average school could laugh it off, then it wouldn’t be imposed.  But scholarship reductions are one of the more meaningful punishments that the NCAA metes out, and it’s the one schools really don’t want.



BC

I wasn't citing the bottom of the roster or using the benefit of hindsight, I was citing the most marginal guys in each class. If I were using the benefit of hindsight there would have been Plan A guys I could have cited like Colby Bowman, Lukas Ungar, Mitch Leigber, etc. You misunderstand me: the guys I picked out are exactly the kind of guys we'd be without if we didn't fill our scholarships. As an outsider I can't know exactly who the most marginal guy in each class is, but I assure you that the marginal guys Shaw has brought on in the last decade haven't been big boons to depth. I agree with the logic of your post, but in reality the guys Shaw fills out the 80th-85th spots with - not based on hindsight - aren't becoming meaningful contributors like you think they are.

If you look at Shaw's recruiting ever since the incredible 2012 class (for which the players who weren't reputed to be no doubt about it Power Five guys, like Caspers and Rector, turned out to be amazing takes), what you'll see is that Shaw tends to fill out classes as far as he can with guys who aren't stretches. Oftentimes when a guy does seem like a stretch it's because we can't do better at that position, like our 2022 ILB recruits Rose and Hudson, not marginal recruits we're adding just to get to 85 scholarships. The true flyer/marginal recruits haven't been helpful hardly whatsoever - Paxton Segina, Dorian Maddox (arguably more of the Rose/Hudson category anyway), Jay Tyler, Caleb Kelly.

Again, not hindsight, just looking at when Shaw has/hasn't filled space with marginal guys. I think Shaw coached long enough at Stanford to know that getting somebody like these guys is not really any more valuable than leaving the spot open to reward a walk-on. If you're at 84 scholarships, does it help you to add one of these guys for depth? Nah.

It basically boils down to this: you fill the roster with guys in your most cold-eyed assessment you think will make your team better. If you can only get to 82/83/84 of those guys, it's not really leaving meat on the bone to refrain from concocting a case that the marginal guy really helps you.