[msqueri]

Now you got me curious.  Let’s look at the bottom five non-specialist players (by 247 composite) from the 2016-2018, which I think is when we had the biggest scholarship gaps. Lots of caveats here, which you identify (like, we don’t know that the bottom of the 247 rankings was the bottom of the internal rankings) and I’m using a limited time frame, but still a useful exercise, I think.

2016: Dorian Maddox, Paxton Segina, Dylan Powell, Nate Hebrig, Malik Antoine
2017: Drew Dalman, Tucker Fisk, Stuart Head, Levani Damuni, Dalyn Wade-Pery
2018: Tae Le, Ethan Bonner, Jay Symonds, Donjae Logan, Justus Woods

So, yeah, a lot of total non-contributors, like Segina, Le, Logan, and Woods, but some guys who were back-ups like Maddox and a bona fide star, Dalman, who was our lowest ranked recruit in 2017.  In fact the bottom of that 2017 class produced not just contributors, but a number of multi-year starters.

Given the uncertainties over recruiting, I’m a big fan of taking as many shots on goal as we can, especially for positions where we historically struggle, like d-line.  I’m not polyanna enough to expect that they will all be Dalman’s or even Damuni’s, but if maybe 1 in 10 is a hidden star, 1 in 5 can be a starter, and 1/2 can be marginally better contributor than the person we had to trot out in their stead, then that’s a case for filling the class.

BC

I don't think it's helpful to think about bottom of the class as if the bottom of the class in 2017 means the same thing as the bottom of the class in 2022. Your bottom five for 2017 includes multiple guys who were 4-stars on major services. In years with small classes (2013, 2017) it's questionable whether you should even think of the class having a "bottom." Dalman was the composite #650 recruit in the country. Not only is that no doubt about it Power Five recruit, it's a very high 3-star.

Rather than thinking about Dalman as the last guy in his class, it would be more accurate to say he was the 14th highest-regarded guy in one of the most talented classes in Stanford history. For what it's worth, Dalman's ranking would have been the 10th highest of the 21 person most recent class. That's a far cry from a marginal recruit for any program. You can't call the third OL in a class a marginal recruit. Because we were able to get Little, Sarell, and Dalman, that year we passed on 4-star Brett Neilon, among other extremely coveted linemen. [Indeed, USC's highly touted current line are largely guys who could have gone to Stanford if we weren't so high on the hog.]

In other words, you don't have marginal recruits every year. Some years you go light and it's about quality rather than quantity. I don't think it makes sense to view anybody in the 2013 or 2017 classes as the 85th man.

If you look at things like which recruit at a position a player was and when we offered (i.e., were they Plan A or otherwise good enough to be a no doubt about it member of the class), you'll find that there haven't really been the hidden stars you're talking about. Herbig originally committed to us before his senior year even began. Levani Damuni was a 4-star according to Rivals. In what world are these marginal recruits? They simply were not.

[msqueri]

Now you got me curious.  Let’s look at the bottom five non-specialist players (by 247 composite) from the 2016-2018, which I think is when we had the biggest scholarship gaps. Lots of caveats here, which you identify (like, we don’t know that the bottom of the 247 rankings was the bottom of the internal rankings) and I’m using a limited time frame, but still a useful exercise, I think.

2016: Dorian Maddox, Paxton Segina, Dylan Powell, Nate Hebrig, Malik Antoine
2017: Drew Dalman, Tucker Fisk, Stuart Head, Levani Damuni, Dalyn Wade-Pery
2018: Tae Le, Ethan Bonner, Jay Symonds, Donjae Logan, Justus Woods

So, yeah, a lot of total non-contributors, like Segina, Le, Logan, and Woods, but some guys who were back-ups like Maddox and a bona fide star, Dalman, who was our lowest ranked recruit in 2017.  In fact the bottom of that 2017 class produced not just contributors, but a number of multi-year starters.

Given the uncertainties over recruiting, I’m a big fan of taking as many shots on goal as we can, especially for positions where we historically struggle, like d-line.  I’m not polyanna enough to expect that they will all be Dalman’s or even Damuni’s, but if maybe 1 in 10 is a hidden star, 1 in 5 can be a starter, and 1/2 can be marginally better contributor than the person we had to trot out in their stead, then that’s a case for filling the class.

BC

I don't think it's helpful to think about bottom of the class as if the bottom of the class in 2017 means the same thing as the bottom of the class in 2022. Your bottom five for 2017 includes multiple guys who were 4-stars on major services. In years with small classes (2013, 2017) it's questionable whether you should even think of the class having a "bottom." Dalman was the composite #650 recruit in the country. Not only is that no doubt about it Power Five recruit, it's a very high 3-star.

Rather than thinking about Dalman as the last guy in his class, it would be more accurate to say he was the 14th highest-regarded guy in one of the most talented classes in Stanford history. For what it's worth, Dalman's ranking would have been the 10th highest of the 21 person most recent class. That's a far cry from a marginal recruit for any program. You can't call the third OL in a class a marginal recruit. Because we were able to get Little, Sarell, and Dalman, that year we passed on 4-star Brett Neilon, among other extremely coveted linemen. [Indeed, USC's highly touted current line are largely guys who could have gone to Stanford if we weren't so high on the hog.]

In other words, you don't have marginal recruits every year. Some years you go light and it's about quality rather than quantity. I don't think it makes sense to view anybody in the 2013 or 2017 classes as the 85th man.

If you look at things like which recruit at a position a player was and when we offered (i.e., were they Plan A or otherwise good enough to be a no doubt about it member of the class), you'll find that there haven't really been the hidden stars you're talking about. Herbig originally committed to us before his senior year even began. Levani Damuni was a 4-star according to Rivals. In what world are these marginal recruits? They simply were not.