[Goose]

A bimodal distribution is reasonable, but I think we could wind up around the spread if UCLA gets a two or three touchdown lead at the half and cruises to the end.  Let’s say it’s 28-6 at the half, UCLA takes its foot off the gas, and we score two touchdowns in garbage time.  Final 35-20, though it won’t have been close… and will wind up right around the spread.

BC

Agree, thus my comment of down to 14 being possible in garbage time. The bimodal distribution creates a bigger standard deviation and makes an outcome near the "mean" 14 point spread much less likely than in a "normal" game. :-)

[Goose]

A bimodal distribution is reasonable, but I think we could wind up around the spread if UCLA gets a two or three touchdown lead at the half and cruises to the end.  Let’s say it’s 28-6 at the half, UCLA takes its foot off the gas, and we score two touchdowns in garbage time.  Final 35-20, though it won’t have been close… and will wind up right around the spread.

BC

Agree, thus my comment of down to 14 being possible in garbage time. The bimodal distribution creates a bigger standard deviation and makes an outcome near the "mean" 14 point spread much less likely than in a "normal" game. :-)