10-30-2022, 04:04 PM
6. I have much more positive to say about the defense but first the bad: the run defense had been getting tighter in recent weeks but, as I predicted, got re-exposed by a great run game. Charbonnet, DTR, and Co. are great, but this was a weak performance. Only Colorado has a had a worse yards per carry allowed and no run defense has given up more total rushing yards to UCLA in the last 14 games. PFF judged it our worst run defense game and worst tackling game of the season (only Utah game last year worse last year). Aside from run defense, fourth downs were also a big problem, allowing UCLA to convert all five opportunities. But to some degree I view that as the price of playing Chip Kelly. There were several drives that would have gotten the defense off the field against a lesser or more traditional coach.
7. On the positive side of the ledger, the passing defense held up very nicely. Some may say UCLA didn't need to pass or that DTR got banged up early and that may have limited his throwing, but that doesn't change that one of the best QBs in the country had to labor against us. We're the only team this year to keep DTR out of the end zone via the air and had by far the best pass efficiency defense of any team against UCLA this year, as well as the second best yards per attempt defense behind only Oregon. To my mind, this correlates with an improved pass rush for Stanford more than anything special about our defensive backs. Bailey, Herron (now #37 in America in sacks), and Damuni all had sacks and Bailey had an awesome four hurries. Throughout the broadcast they showed replays of DTR getting hit, getting up gingerly, and favoring one leg. This is what pressure does, I don't think it's a fluke we gave UCLA a tough time in pass defense, and the pressure and aggressiveness seems to be a characteristic in more (but not all) of our games this year than in recent years. I'm getting closer to saying they deserve to use #PartyInTheBackfield again, as this is the best sack team we've had in four years and the best tackles for loss team we've had in eight years (!!!!!). Need to see it continue, but with the emergence of Bailey and Cooper I have some hope on defense finally. Speaking of Bailey, I counted a very impressive seven impact plays, the early ones of which forced a field goal, the forced fumble being the type of play that is a brobdingnagian deal in any halfway competitive game if McGill and Williamson hadn't squandered the opportunity, and the sack to force a punt arguably being as much as a seven point play because UCLA was in obvious four down territory and was victimizing us badly on fourth downs. With this performance, David Bailey now takes over PFF's spot as Stanford's top defender on the season. Fun question for memory lane: has Stanford ever had a defensive true freshman this good?
8. We will have a more complete picture a month from now but in my view the results of the off-season "deep dive" and "stripping down to the studs" are coming into focus: it worked on defense and not on offense. With a disastrously young defensive line, the best player on the defense transferring, and bad inside linebackers, we had no right to expect a serviceable defense. Yet the off-season deep dive remolded the defense around a new scheme/base and nickel alignment as well as a more aggressive and simple/instinctual personality, and we now have our best defense since 2018. If you would have told me we'd have the #6 or so defense in the Pac-12 (the current FEI, almost identical with Pac-12 #5 Oregon), I would have giddily taken it. Meanwhile, an offense with the most returning production of any team in America, including a putative NFL QB, highly experienced veteran line, and supposedly one of the top quartets of receiving targets in the nation was a grouping of talent that a good offensive coach would have been expected to generate greatness with and even Shaw could have been expected to have an above-average offense. Yet the off-season deep dive remolded the offense around a new slow mesh/RPO/etc. scheme and concepts that may or may not be the reason we are now gawking at another Shawful offense. If you would have told me we'd have the #11 offense in the Pac-12 (the current FEI, almost identical with #10 Cal) I wouldn't have believed even Shaw could accomplish that.
9. Special teams played very nicely against UCLA. Karty had field goals of 22 and 49 and is now one of three kickers nationally with 14+ fields goals and no misses. I am not being facetious when I say I was disappointed Shaw went for it on what turned into the Yurosek touchdown. I'm not complaining about the result, but in real time I didn't see the points as important given how out of hand the game was (and to be honest the touchdown drought extending so many quarters is the kind of humiliating narrative we need widely known so the state of our program doesn't escape scrutiny) and giving Karty opportunities to pad his stats is one of our moral victories at this point. For what it's worth, if we let him get that chip shot he would now be tied for the national lead in field goals. Sanborn had a very nice game save one bad mistake, with net punts of 42 (to the 14), 41 (to the 20), 40 (to the 32 and, more importantly, changing possession due to the muff, 48 (to the 9), 23 (to the 42, albeit a remarkable effort to get the punt off on the run but ultimately an inexcusable play for him to have lapse of concentration to cost 15+ yards, and much worse without his incredible save), and 46 (to the 1!). Barrow had a 40 yard return (now third in the conference in kick return average). But the special teams star was Tremayne, as forcing special teams turnovers outweighs the rest and Tremayne was one of the two in position to down the punt at the 1 (seemed like a testy exchange with Bowman on that one).
10. Game balls: Nugent, Bailey, Tremayne, Alamar
11. If the team's resilience and morale is what it's appeared to be in recent weeks, this game may not change anything fundamentally about our season. We looked like a 5-ish win team before the game and we still do. The loss does further decrease the odds we can scrape our way to 6-6, but only marginally as it was unlikely we were going to beat UCLA. The Oregon State loss was more significant, as will be the upcoming game against Washington State. That's very much a hinge point in what this season can be. We have a puncher's chance in that one and it's probably a must win if we want to win six games this year. (Opinions vary on whether we do want to win six games)
7. On the positive side of the ledger, the passing defense held up very nicely. Some may say UCLA didn't need to pass or that DTR got banged up early and that may have limited his throwing, but that doesn't change that one of the best QBs in the country had to labor against us. We're the only team this year to keep DTR out of the end zone via the air and had by far the best pass efficiency defense of any team against UCLA this year, as well as the second best yards per attempt defense behind only Oregon. To my mind, this correlates with an improved pass rush for Stanford more than anything special about our defensive backs. Bailey, Herron (now #37 in America in sacks), and Damuni all had sacks and Bailey had an awesome four hurries. Throughout the broadcast they showed replays of DTR getting hit, getting up gingerly, and favoring one leg. This is what pressure does, I don't think it's a fluke we gave UCLA a tough time in pass defense, and the pressure and aggressiveness seems to be a characteristic in more (but not all) of our games this year than in recent years. I'm getting closer to saying they deserve to use #PartyInTheBackfield again, as this is the best sack team we've had in four years and the best tackles for loss team we've had in eight years (!!!!!). Need to see it continue, but with the emergence of Bailey and Cooper I have some hope on defense finally. Speaking of Bailey, I counted a very impressive seven impact plays, the early ones of which forced a field goal, the forced fumble being the type of play that is a brobdingnagian deal in any halfway competitive game if McGill and Williamson hadn't squandered the opportunity, and the sack to force a punt arguably being as much as a seven point play because UCLA was in obvious four down territory and was victimizing us badly on fourth downs. With this performance, David Bailey now takes over PFF's spot as Stanford's top defender on the season. Fun question for memory lane: has Stanford ever had a defensive true freshman this good?
8. We will have a more complete picture a month from now but in my view the results of the off-season "deep dive" and "stripping down to the studs" are coming into focus: it worked on defense and not on offense. With a disastrously young defensive line, the best player on the defense transferring, and bad inside linebackers, we had no right to expect a serviceable defense. Yet the off-season deep dive remolded the defense around a new scheme/base and nickel alignment as well as a more aggressive and simple/instinctual personality, and we now have our best defense since 2018. If you would have told me we'd have the #6 or so defense in the Pac-12 (the current FEI, almost identical with Pac-12 #5 Oregon), I would have giddily taken it. Meanwhile, an offense with the most returning production of any team in America, including a putative NFL QB, highly experienced veteran line, and supposedly one of the top quartets of receiving targets in the nation was a grouping of talent that a good offensive coach would have been expected to generate greatness with and even Shaw could have been expected to have an above-average offense. Yet the off-season deep dive remolded the offense around a new slow mesh/RPO/etc. scheme and concepts that may or may not be the reason we are now gawking at another Shawful offense. If you would have told me we'd have the #11 offense in the Pac-12 (the current FEI, almost identical with #10 Cal) I wouldn't have believed even Shaw could accomplish that.
9. Special teams played very nicely against UCLA. Karty had field goals of 22 and 49 and is now one of three kickers nationally with 14+ fields goals and no misses. I am not being facetious when I say I was disappointed Shaw went for it on what turned into the Yurosek touchdown. I'm not complaining about the result, but in real time I didn't see the points as important given how out of hand the game was (and to be honest the touchdown drought extending so many quarters is the kind of humiliating narrative we need widely known so the state of our program doesn't escape scrutiny) and giving Karty opportunities to pad his stats is one of our moral victories at this point. For what it's worth, if we let him get that chip shot he would now be tied for the national lead in field goals. Sanborn had a very nice game save one bad mistake, with net punts of 42 (to the 14), 41 (to the 20), 40 (to the 32 and, more importantly, changing possession due to the muff, 48 (to the 9), 23 (to the 42, albeit a remarkable effort to get the punt off on the run but ultimately an inexcusable play for him to have lapse of concentration to cost 15+ yards, and much worse without his incredible save), and 46 (to the 1!). Barrow had a 40 yard return (now third in the conference in kick return average). But the special teams star was Tremayne, as forcing special teams turnovers outweighs the rest and Tremayne was one of the two in position to down the punt at the 1 (seemed like a testy exchange with Bowman on that one).
10. Game balls: Nugent, Bailey, Tremayne, Alamar
11. If the team's resilience and morale is what it's appeared to be in recent weeks, this game may not change anything fundamentally about our season. We looked like a 5-ish win team before the game and we still do. The loss does further decrease the odds we can scrape our way to 6-6, but only marginally as it was unlikely we were going to beat UCLA. The Oregon State loss was more significant, as will be the upcoming game against Washington State. That's very much a hinge point in what this season can be. We have a puncher's chance in that one and it's probably a must win if we want to win six games this year. (Opinions vary on whether we do want to win six games)