[msqueri]

Why on earth don’t you want to win the most games possible? Do you truly think if they go 3-9 Shaw is going to be fired? I don’t. I don’t think he would’ve been fired if they went 1- 11. 

If you have some insight on this by all means let us know. But my guess is that Shaw  “represents” the university well personally and that is all they care about in regards to football right now. They being the administration.

My real answer is that I don't know what will happen and I don't think you do either, but my guess is the odds of Stanford getting a new coach go up the more disastrous things get. Beyond that general frame, some thoughts:

* I think it is overly simplistic and binary to make it about Shaw being "fired." That's not the only outcome. He could retire. He could pivot to another job (coaching or otherwise, at Stanford or otherwise). And yeah, he could be "fired"/bought out/whatever.

* I think Shaw has built up a crap load of political capital at Stanford but it dwindles somewhat with miserable seasons (and can be replenished somewhat with good ones). I don't think he can have miserable results forever and have that be sustainable, but I don't know where the tipping point lies.

* Shaw representing the university well is a big part of the equation, but his side of that equation becomes less valuable the more disgrace the football program brings on the university. At some point the losing will become too much. Again, I don't know where the tipping point is.

* We also shouldn't think about accountability as being a yes/no binary. Maybe with a 6-6 season everything gets swept under the rug/spun as progress but at 4-8 Shaw faces pressure to make key changes to address glaring problems (the offense for instance). I just offer that notionally. Again, I don't know the dynamics or the tipping points. But I do think it's facile to act like there's no difference between 1-11 and 6-6 in terms of what it means for Shaw's standing, political capital, etc.

Ultimately, my guess (again, I don't think you or I really know how things will play out) is that among all the outcomes for Stanford's long term football prospects a 6-6 regular season is probably the worst. It would be spun as a triumph and buy Shaw even more time, and then we'd have to rebuild with a problematic 2023 roster and no buzz to help recruiting (you need at least 8 wins for that). At least 5-7 would be another losing season/reason for a chip on the shoulder, which could be modestly helpful in trying to apply pressure on Shaw to hand over the reins on offense. All the more true at 4-8, and all the more true still at 3-9.

The best reason to root for 6-6 would be a theory that it's enough success for Shaw to justify going out of his own volition with a modest triumph whereas another losing would likely prompt him to try to take advantage of any easy 2023 schedule to redeem himself.

Anyway, I want to go to a bowl and I tend to prefer when Stanford wins (duh) so I'm hoping that by Christmas I'll be raising a toast to an 8-5 Stanford team on a roll. Of course I hope that. I just think it's not unreasonable that 3-9 would be better for our long term future than 7-6 or 6-7.

[msqueri]

Why on earth don’t you want to win the most games possible? Do you truly think if they go 3-9 Shaw is going to be fired? I don’t. I don’t think he would’ve been fired if they went 1- 11. 

If you have some insight on this by all means let us know. But my guess is that Shaw  “represents” the university well personally and that is all they care about in regards to football right now. They being the administration.

My real answer is that I don't know what will happen and I don't think you do either, but my guess is the odds of Stanford getting a new coach go up the more disastrous things get. Beyond that general frame, some thoughts:

* I think it is overly simplistic and binary to make it about Shaw being "fired." That's not the only outcome. He could retire. He could pivot to another job (coaching or otherwise, at Stanford or otherwise). And yeah, he could be "fired"/bought out/whatever.

* I think Shaw has built up a crap load of political capital at Stanford but it dwindles somewhat with miserable seasons (and can be replenished somewhat with good ones). I don't think he can have miserable results forever and have that be sustainable, but I don't know where the tipping point lies.

* Shaw representing the university well is a big part of the equation, but his side of that equation becomes less valuable the more disgrace the football program brings on the university. At some point the losing will become too much. Again, I don't know where the tipping point is.

* We also shouldn't think about accountability as being a yes/no binary. Maybe with a 6-6 season everything gets swept under the rug/spun as progress but at 4-8 Shaw faces pressure to make key changes to address glaring problems (the offense for instance). I just offer that notionally. Again, I don't know the dynamics or the tipping points. But I do think it's facile to act like there's no difference between 1-11 and 6-6 in terms of what it means for Shaw's standing, political capital, etc.

Ultimately, my guess (again, I don't think you or I really know how things will play out) is that among all the outcomes for Stanford's long term football prospects a 6-6 regular season is probably the worst. It would be spun as a triumph and buy Shaw even more time, and then we'd have to rebuild with a problematic 2023 roster and no buzz to help recruiting (you need at least 8 wins for that). At least 5-7 would be another losing season/reason for a chip on the shoulder, which could be modestly helpful in trying to apply pressure on Shaw to hand over the reins on offense. All the more true at 4-8, and all the more true still at 3-9.

The best reason to root for 6-6 would be a theory that it's enough success for Shaw to justify going out of his own volition with a modest triumph whereas another losing would likely prompt him to try to take advantage of any easy 2023 schedule to redeem himself.

Anyway, I want to go to a bowl and I tend to prefer when Stanford wins (duh) so I'm hoping that by Christmas I'll be raising a toast to an 8-5 Stanford team on a roll. Of course I hope that. I just think it's not unreasonable that 3-9 would be better for our long term future than 7-6 or 6-7.