10-22-2012, 04:00 PM
OK, Stanford is undesirable relative to typical NCAA FBS AQ conference programs, but in the Pac-12 Stanford is not THAT undesirable.
Remember, Oregon State does not travel well that's just the way it is.
In the scenario you noted, and assuming USC beats Notre Dame.
Oregon - BCS CG
USC - Rose Bowl
Stanford - Alamo Bowl
Oregon State - Holiday Bowl
The Alamo Bowl is new to the Pac-12. In theory they could go out of their way and grab OSU. It would be their choice. But it would be an odd choice. Stanford would have beaten OSU a few weeks earlier. Stanford would have only 3 road losses. And Stanford, after two BCS at-large bowls, is a bigger national TV brand than Oregon State. But it could happen that Alamo takes OSU. Not that big a deal to me since I would prefer San Diego.
The Holiday Bowl would take Stanford over those 5-4 options, even if they wanted to grab something there is nothing there to take that looks good. Remember, the Holiday Bowl had to suffer with a mediocre 6-6 UCB team. The last thing they want is to voluntarily take another ~500 team.
In the most doomsday one Pac-12 at large scenario from your table.
Oregon - Rose
SC - Alamo
Holiday - Oregon State (but they would take Stanford first for sure)
Sun - ASU (they might want ASUs crowd in El Paso, but ASU does not exactly pack their own house)
And then Stanford would have to go next because the Sun should have taken Stanford.
That puts Stanford in Las Vegas bowl.
Imagine Stanford loses to Oregon State - Then it is still Sun or Las Vegas even with only one BCS at-large for the conference.
If you run the numbers it looks likely that the Pac-12 will get an at-large invite even if Pac-12 #2 has three losses because Oregon/SC/Stanford/Oregon State as #2 will likely beat out ACC #2 or Big East #2. The SEC has so many teams in the top 20 that they crowd out possible qualifiers from other conferences.
Stanford could end up in lower tier bowls, but not if the team finishes 7-2 in conference.
Remember, Oregon State does not travel well that's just the way it is.
In the scenario you noted, and assuming USC beats Notre Dame.
Oregon - BCS CG
USC - Rose Bowl
Stanford - Alamo Bowl
Oregon State - Holiday Bowl
The Alamo Bowl is new to the Pac-12. In theory they could go out of their way and grab OSU. It would be their choice. But it would be an odd choice. Stanford would have beaten OSU a few weeks earlier. Stanford would have only 3 road losses. And Stanford, after two BCS at-large bowls, is a bigger national TV brand than Oregon State. But it could happen that Alamo takes OSU. Not that big a deal to me since I would prefer San Diego.
The Holiday Bowl would take Stanford over those 5-4 options, even if they wanted to grab something there is nothing there to take that looks good. Remember, the Holiday Bowl had to suffer with a mediocre 6-6 UCB team. The last thing they want is to voluntarily take another ~500 team.
In the most doomsday one Pac-12 at large scenario from your table.
Oregon - Rose
SC - Alamo
Holiday - Oregon State (but they would take Stanford first for sure)
Sun - ASU (they might want ASUs crowd in El Paso, but ASU does not exactly pack their own house)
And then Stanford would have to go next because the Sun should have taken Stanford.
That puts Stanford in Las Vegas bowl.
Imagine Stanford loses to Oregon State - Then it is still Sun or Las Vegas even with only one BCS at-large for the conference.
If you run the numbers it looks likely that the Pac-12 will get an at-large invite even if Pac-12 #2 has three losses because Oregon/SC/Stanford/Oregon State as #2 will likely beat out ACC #2 or Big East #2. The SEC has so many teams in the top 20 that they crowd out possible qualifiers from other conferences.
Stanford could end up in lower tier bowls, but not if the team finishes 7-2 in conference.