12-04-2022, 01:16 PM
While it's weird to look backward when we're turning the page (and will probably lack most of the players going forward), I do like to revisit my preseason top players prediction and see what PFF grades actually looked like compared to what I forecast pre-season. Here are the top 35 contributors for 2022 Stanford football ranked in order of PFF grades (with the delta between predicted and actual included parenthetically):
1. Drake Nugent - 80.2 (nailed it!)
2. Tanner McKee - 75.1 (nailed it!)
3. Michael Wilson - 74.5 (+6)
4. Jonathan McGill - 73.7 (+18)
5. Ethan Bonner - 70.7 (+19)
6. David Bailey - 68.9 (+12)
7. Stephen Herron - 68.2 (+12)
8. Kendall Williamson - 67.9 (+7)
9. Walter Rouse - 67.3 (-6)
10. Casey Filkins - 66.9 (+4)
10. Barrett Miller - 66.9 (+3)
10. Jack Leyrer - 66.9 (not on the board preseason)
13. Elijah Higgins - 65.4 (-6)
14. Brycen Tremayne - 65.2 (-4)
15. Lance Keneley - 62.8 (+13)
16. John Humphreys - 62.7 (nailed it!)
17. Jake Hornibrook - 62.6 (-6)
18. Kyu Blu Kelly - 62.4 (-10)
19. Levani Damuni - 60.6 (-7)
20. Benjamin Yurosek - 60.2 (-16)
21. Patrick Fields - 59.6 (-4)
22. Levi Rogers - 57.7 (not on the board preseason)
22. Aeneas DiCosmo - 57.7 (not on the board preseason)
24. Mitch Leigber - 56.9 (not on the board preseason)
25. Ricky Miezan - 54.3 (+4)
25. Nicolas Toomer - 54.3 (-5)
27. Myles Hinton - 54.2 (+3)
28. Alaka'i Gilman - 53.3 (not on the board preseason)
29. Tristan Sinclair - 52.4 (+3)
30. Salim Turner-Muhammad - 51.2 (-3)
31. Anthony Franklin - 47.0 (nailed it!)
32. Sam Roush - 44.9 (not on the board preseason)
33. Tobin Phillips - 44.3 (-7)
34. Jaxson Moi - 43.8 (+1)
35. Jacob Mangum-Farrar - 36.9 (-14)
Observations:
* This was my second year in a row only getting four of the top ten (compared to my remarkable call of eight of the top ten in 2020). As I did in 2020 I nailed the top two. My minor breakthrough this year was getting 29 of the top 35 right, compared to 28 each of the last two years. If I had had the information on the Bragg retirement I would have gotten to 30, but I'm happy with calling 29 right.
* The players I got wrong were Branson Bragg, EJ Smith, Aaron Armitage, Jimmy Wyrick, Collin Wright, and Bradley Archer. Bragg, Smith, and Wyrick were the kind of injuries that happen every year. Armitage (vs. DiCosmo) and Archer (vs. Roush) were position battles we had strong indication would play out like they did and I made judgment calls that guessed wrong, but I could/should have gotten those right. In the former I was being wishful about the higher ceiling player and in the latter I was going with precedent when it comes to tight end playing time. I made a usage projection error with Wright (in part because Bonner stayed healthier than I thought he would) but I also think I would have been right if Stanford football were a meritocracy (Wright clearly better than STM).
* Nugent was the top player on the team two years in a row. I wonder how many Power Five teams have players like that transfer out.
* McKee was frustrating but ultimately not the player who failed to deliver compared to his teammates.
* McGill and Bonner were very pleasant surprises. We knew McGill was a playmaker with limitations, but he played legitimately quite well. According to PFF, he was #16 of 88 Pac-12 starting DBs. Bonner was a guy I had not trust in but proved me wrong.
* Keneley is another guy who played nicely relative to expectations. Edge is far and away our most promising position (if Bailey and Cooper stay that is). Bailey's performance as a true freshman was astounding. Bailey's true freshman grade was identical to Peter Kalambayi's fifth year senior grade, the 11th best grade among the 28 starting edge defenders in Anderson's tenure (with the top ten of course being studded with upperclassmen). Quite a debut for a true freshmen, one of the best in the nation.
* The season was an absolute nightmare relative to expectations for Kelly, Yurosek, and Mangum-Farrar. Very ugly. I hope Yurosek comes back and get the taste out of his mouth.
* We knew the DL would be a dumpster fire and it was. But these grades are so bad it doesn't give me much hope for this group going forward. Regardless, more than any other position this is where we have to hope new coaching and strength and conditioning will unlock something better. If we can unlock a trash can rather than a dumpster fire even that would dramatically improve the team's chance of competing.
* In general, this season (maybe as a result of off-season scheme changes) got noticeably less out of pass catchers than expected and noticeably more out of edge rushers.
* Overall, I'd say individual performances were significantly better in 2022 than in 2021. We squandered it, but at least in PFF's view we took strides. Our best player was even better in 2022 than 2021. We had five key contributors with 70+ grades compared to four last year. We had five with disastrously incompetent sub-50 grades compared to eight last year. We had one with a laughable sub-40 grade compared to two last year. In short, we definitely graded better in 2022.
* Usually the main point of doing this post every year is to get a picture of the quality of key returning contributors for the next year. Right now we really don't have any sense of how many of these guys will return. This is a thread we should revisit a few months from now. But it seems likely that we're only going to have a few of the team's top players back.
1. Drake Nugent - 80.2 (nailed it!)
2. Tanner McKee - 75.1 (nailed it!)
3. Michael Wilson - 74.5 (+6)
4. Jonathan McGill - 73.7 (+18)
5. Ethan Bonner - 70.7 (+19)
6. David Bailey - 68.9 (+12)
7. Stephen Herron - 68.2 (+12)
8. Kendall Williamson - 67.9 (+7)
9. Walter Rouse - 67.3 (-6)
10. Casey Filkins - 66.9 (+4)
10. Barrett Miller - 66.9 (+3)
10. Jack Leyrer - 66.9 (not on the board preseason)
13. Elijah Higgins - 65.4 (-6)
14. Brycen Tremayne - 65.2 (-4)
15. Lance Keneley - 62.8 (+13)
16. John Humphreys - 62.7 (nailed it!)
17. Jake Hornibrook - 62.6 (-6)
18. Kyu Blu Kelly - 62.4 (-10)
19. Levani Damuni - 60.6 (-7)
20. Benjamin Yurosek - 60.2 (-16)
21. Patrick Fields - 59.6 (-4)
22. Levi Rogers - 57.7 (not on the board preseason)
22. Aeneas DiCosmo - 57.7 (not on the board preseason)
24. Mitch Leigber - 56.9 (not on the board preseason)
25. Ricky Miezan - 54.3 (+4)
25. Nicolas Toomer - 54.3 (-5)
27. Myles Hinton - 54.2 (+3)
28. Alaka'i Gilman - 53.3 (not on the board preseason)
29. Tristan Sinclair - 52.4 (+3)
30. Salim Turner-Muhammad - 51.2 (-3)
31. Anthony Franklin - 47.0 (nailed it!)
32. Sam Roush - 44.9 (not on the board preseason)
33. Tobin Phillips - 44.3 (-7)
34. Jaxson Moi - 43.8 (+1)
35. Jacob Mangum-Farrar - 36.9 (-14)
Observations:
* This was my second year in a row only getting four of the top ten (compared to my remarkable call of eight of the top ten in 2020). As I did in 2020 I nailed the top two. My minor breakthrough this year was getting 29 of the top 35 right, compared to 28 each of the last two years. If I had had the information on the Bragg retirement I would have gotten to 30, but I'm happy with calling 29 right.
* The players I got wrong were Branson Bragg, EJ Smith, Aaron Armitage, Jimmy Wyrick, Collin Wright, and Bradley Archer. Bragg, Smith, and Wyrick were the kind of injuries that happen every year. Armitage (vs. DiCosmo) and Archer (vs. Roush) were position battles we had strong indication would play out like they did and I made judgment calls that guessed wrong, but I could/should have gotten those right. In the former I was being wishful about the higher ceiling player and in the latter I was going with precedent when it comes to tight end playing time. I made a usage projection error with Wright (in part because Bonner stayed healthier than I thought he would) but I also think I would have been right if Stanford football were a meritocracy (Wright clearly better than STM).
* Nugent was the top player on the team two years in a row. I wonder how many Power Five teams have players like that transfer out.
* McKee was frustrating but ultimately not the player who failed to deliver compared to his teammates.
* McGill and Bonner were very pleasant surprises. We knew McGill was a playmaker with limitations, but he played legitimately quite well. According to PFF, he was #16 of 88 Pac-12 starting DBs. Bonner was a guy I had not trust in but proved me wrong.
* Keneley is another guy who played nicely relative to expectations. Edge is far and away our most promising position (if Bailey and Cooper stay that is). Bailey's performance as a true freshman was astounding. Bailey's true freshman grade was identical to Peter Kalambayi's fifth year senior grade, the 11th best grade among the 28 starting edge defenders in Anderson's tenure (with the top ten of course being studded with upperclassmen). Quite a debut for a true freshmen, one of the best in the nation.
* The season was an absolute nightmare relative to expectations for Kelly, Yurosek, and Mangum-Farrar. Very ugly. I hope Yurosek comes back and get the taste out of his mouth.
* We knew the DL would be a dumpster fire and it was. But these grades are so bad it doesn't give me much hope for this group going forward. Regardless, more than any other position this is where we have to hope new coaching and strength and conditioning will unlock something better. If we can unlock a trash can rather than a dumpster fire even that would dramatically improve the team's chance of competing.
* In general, this season (maybe as a result of off-season scheme changes) got noticeably less out of pass catchers than expected and noticeably more out of edge rushers.
* Overall, I'd say individual performances were significantly better in 2022 than in 2021. We squandered it, but at least in PFF's view we took strides. Our best player was even better in 2022 than 2021. We had five key contributors with 70+ grades compared to four last year. We had five with disastrously incompetent sub-50 grades compared to eight last year. We had one with a laughable sub-40 grade compared to two last year. In short, we definitely graded better in 2022.
* Usually the main point of doing this post every year is to get a picture of the quality of key returning contributors for the next year. Right now we really don't have any sense of how many of these guys will return. This is a thread we should revisit a few months from now. But it seems likely that we're only going to have a few of the team's top players back.