I am wondering if there have been any high quality studies done comparing the publicly available ratings of high school talent to the actual college performances of those players, in various sports and over time.
I am sure that there is some relationship of talent as perceived in high school players to how well they do in college, but can it be empirically quantified just how strong that relationship has been, for various sports?
We always hear anecdotes of players that blossom in college and were off the radar in high school. Lili Thompson is one of our own examples. But it also seems that the teams that win championships are always led by players who have been superstars since junior high.
On the other hand, at least in WBB, while there frequently seems to be a big difference between a player ranked 5 by ESPN and a player ranked 20, I've never thought that the differences between a 20 or a 30 or a 40 or a 50 really seemed to be noticeable.
I have to believe that the coaches who lead recruiting efforts understand these things quite well and use their own metrics. What are they? Is it strictly the eyeball test? If analytics are so important for determining tactics in games, what do the analytics say about recruiting players?
I am sure that there is some relationship of talent as perceived in high school players to how well they do in college, but can it be empirically quantified just how strong that relationship has been, for various sports?
We always hear anecdotes of players that blossom in college and were off the radar in high school. Lili Thompson is one of our own examples. But it also seems that the teams that win championships are always led by players who have been superstars since junior high.
On the other hand, at least in WBB, while there frequently seems to be a big difference between a player ranked 5 by ESPN and a player ranked 20, I've never thought that the differences between a 20 or a 30 or a 40 or a 50 really seemed to be noticeable.
I have to believe that the coaches who lead recruiting efforts understand these things quite well and use their own metrics. What are they? Is it strictly the eyeball test? If analytics are so important for determining tactics in games, what do the analytics say about recruiting players?