09-10-2023, 02:22 PM
1. Well that was no fun. In case anybody had any doubt, it's official: this is a rebuild from a very lowly state and Taylor won't be able to turn it around overnight. It's possible that given the hollowed out roster the team is even worse than Shaw's worst teams. [Certainly this game and the massive 3.53 yard per play differential even with half of it played in garbage time was less competitive than the 2022 USC game (2.51 yard per play differential) and the 2019 USC game (2.99 yard per play differential). It's really a shame that such a venerable rivalry is for now ending with so many of the recent games being such stinkers.] We just looked completely undeserving of being on the field against a good team, and we play many good teams this year. Looking more broadly at the rebuild, a game like this sets a baseline for how low we've fallen. Improvement from very lowly baselines is possible but not assured. A lot of work to do.
2. There's always diminished utility in stats early in a season and in this case that's even more true because the entire second half was garbage time. It's not much of an exaggeration to say that everything Stanford did well was when it didn't matter and USC wasn't playing the A team. That makes it even more disturbing that even with all the garbage time letting us off the hook (anybody saying Lincoln Riley lacked class must have missed that the Voldemort winner didn't pad stats in the least and USC took its foot all the way off the gas for an entire half), we gave up 1.56 more yards per play than Jose State State and gained 0.71 fewer yards per play than the Spartans. It was fair last week to say the evidence pointed to us being a better team than Vanderbilt, but if we're trying to triangulate results - fraught at this early stage but more reliable each week - it's just as fair to say we're worse than San Jose State. That is sobering but not at all shocking as the Cardinal and Spartans were viewed as fairly comparable going into the season.
3. From a macro perspective, this failure seemed familiar to me as a fan of the 2002-2007 teams, albeit especially lopsided and hopeless of a final result: outmatched offense that can't get anything going and as a result puts far too much on the defense, which may be talented and/or well enough coached to compete gamely in some contests but in general is going to look bad with short fields, constantly being on the field, and watching points get put on the board against the other units. The 6.43 yards per carry the defense allowed was a wake-up call that we haven't fully figured out run defense even with the vaunted Wisconsin approach, though the insufferable announcers made a good point that the combination of our offensive ineptitude and Riley's pace created a very difficult situation for the defense. I still think run defense is likely to be stronger for us than pass defense. In this game the pass defense did a tick worse than San Jose State did. I don't want to judge on video game numbers by Caleb Williams per se as he's Caleb Williams, but so far I think there are signs of significant vulnerability in our pass defense. Albany did as well in pass defense against Hawaii as we did.
4. But to me the biggest problem with our team is the offense. Three points against the starting USC defense (ten points and 5.29 yards per play total inclusive of garbage time) is bad. It's the least anybody has scored on them in two years and second least in six years. Even the inflated yards per play is a level that's bottom quarter of USC opponent offenses in recent years. I've seen a lot of commentary that last night was the arrival of the championship-contending USC defense and I just don't buy it. USC still has a long way to go to prove it has a good defense. I fear last night said more about us than it said about them. I think this 2023 Stanford offense is really, really bad. The overarching problem is talent and experience (tough one-two punch!), leading to difficulty stringing together good plays and sustaining drives. There was one glimmer of hope last night, which was a 5.1 yards per carry run game. That's encouraging but a product of garbage time, both breaking some runs when it didn't matter and not having USC come after the QBs much for yards per carry-stunting sacks. It's a thin reed to hold on to in light of the overall comprehensive failure.
2. There's always diminished utility in stats early in a season and in this case that's even more true because the entire second half was garbage time. It's not much of an exaggeration to say that everything Stanford did well was when it didn't matter and USC wasn't playing the A team. That makes it even more disturbing that even with all the garbage time letting us off the hook (anybody saying Lincoln Riley lacked class must have missed that the Voldemort winner didn't pad stats in the least and USC took its foot all the way off the gas for an entire half), we gave up 1.56 more yards per play than Jose State State and gained 0.71 fewer yards per play than the Spartans. It was fair last week to say the evidence pointed to us being a better team than Vanderbilt, but if we're trying to triangulate results - fraught at this early stage but more reliable each week - it's just as fair to say we're worse than San Jose State. That is sobering but not at all shocking as the Cardinal and Spartans were viewed as fairly comparable going into the season.
3. From a macro perspective, this failure seemed familiar to me as a fan of the 2002-2007 teams, albeit especially lopsided and hopeless of a final result: outmatched offense that can't get anything going and as a result puts far too much on the defense, which may be talented and/or well enough coached to compete gamely in some contests but in general is going to look bad with short fields, constantly being on the field, and watching points get put on the board against the other units. The 6.43 yards per carry the defense allowed was a wake-up call that we haven't fully figured out run defense even with the vaunted Wisconsin approach, though the insufferable announcers made a good point that the combination of our offensive ineptitude and Riley's pace created a very difficult situation for the defense. I still think run defense is likely to be stronger for us than pass defense. In this game the pass defense did a tick worse than San Jose State did. I don't want to judge on video game numbers by Caleb Williams per se as he's Caleb Williams, but so far I think there are signs of significant vulnerability in our pass defense. Albany did as well in pass defense against Hawaii as we did.
4. But to me the biggest problem with our team is the offense. Three points against the starting USC defense (ten points and 5.29 yards per play total inclusive of garbage time) is bad. It's the least anybody has scored on them in two years and second least in six years. Even the inflated yards per play is a level that's bottom quarter of USC opponent offenses in recent years. I've seen a lot of commentary that last night was the arrival of the championship-contending USC defense and I just don't buy it. USC still has a long way to go to prove it has a good defense. I fear last night said more about us than it said about them. I think this 2023 Stanford offense is really, really bad. The overarching problem is talent and experience (tough one-two punch!), leading to difficulty stringing together good plays and sustaining drives. There was one glimmer of hope last night, which was a 5.1 yards per carry run game. That's encouraging but a product of garbage time, both breaking some runs when it didn't matter and not having USC come after the QBs much for yards per carry-stunting sacks. It's a thin reed to hold on to in light of the overall comprehensive failure.