[msqueri]

* I had the "benefit" (ha!) of well over a hundred data points of listening to Shaw talk about matchups with opposing defenses and eventually became very cynical, coming to the viewpoint that he used buzz words/jargon/familiar talking points to describe opponents rather than true insight into particular opponents. It was one of numerous things that led me to believe he was a pretender when it came to offensive acumen. In contrast, it's very early days with Taylor and I hesitate to opine anything. That said, the way he talked about passing windows and the "one high" defense sounded like insight, though on the other hand it also sounded cribbed from Fisch's self-description and maybe Taylor watched that press conference as it was a day earlier. Anyway, a big part of Taylor's theory of the case is that he can scheme advantage on offense in a way Shaw proved incapable, so it would be great to start seeing signs of Taylor knowing how to diagnose and exploit defenses. Obviously the Sacramento State success is an important body of evidence, but it's the big leagues now. Fingers crossed (not that this season is when we should expect to see advantage).

* For what it's worth, Arizona's defense is less touted than their offense. There's a discrepancy so far between conventional stats and advanced metrics - 27th in scoring and 43rd in yards per play (46th in points per drive), but 94th in SP+ and #103 in FEI. As I noted, PFF also thinks they have real vulnerabilities. If we're going to compete in this game, in addition to turnovers I think the offense/Karty need to put points on the board. I think a reasonable sign of progress would be scoring more than we did against Sacramento State (also about our average this season of 23.3).

* Taylor made a comment that as the year goes on people will see that Arizona is a really good team and that we need to play well to give ourselves a shot. This sounds like expectation management and understanding we're quite likely to be outclassed again. But I also find this interesting for Taylor's forecast of the kind of team Arizona is. I think they are the team in the Pac-12 nobody talks about. Fisch came in 2021 and, after inheriting an 0-5 team from the pandemic year, went 1-11/Sagarin #118 team in 2021, 5-7/Sagarin #68 in 2022, and now is, like I said, the team nobody is talking about at Sagarin #63 (which is still influenced by preseason expectations but could go up if Taylor and I are right about their promising trajectory). This is the trajectory we want out of Taylor and I think he is probably conscious to the comparison.

* I was somewhat encouraged by Taylor's answer about building the guys back up after a demoralizing loss. I fully expected the "I'm not worried about that" happy talk about the team's great attitude and how much it means to them. That was fine in the off-season but becomes decreasingly credible, drivel even, as losses mount (especially demoralizing losses like the last two, though to an important degree all losses are demoralizing). Instead, we got a different tune from Taylor, that he's always concerned about that given how much they put into it and how it's "definitely demoralizing" when it doesn't work out. I appreciate the candor and clear eyes. He was also honest that wins are energizing and defeats are deflating. He said what you want to focus on is that the hangover only lasts 24 hours. He also seemed clear eyed that there's a tradeoff between the Monday day off (important to heal physically) and getting back to work. Reading between the lines, I think Taylor knows that mounting losses and the inescapable effect on morale is one of the major challenges he faces, maybe the biggest one. It's one thing to understand intellectually that a rebuild takes time and we're slowly putting in place the building blocks, but it's another to emotionally ride it out. If fun and confidence and buy-in and willingness to stick it out get zapped, the window to effect change (i.e., rebuild) can close. Taylor has to guard against this. I don't know what the secret is for a rebuilding program to navigate that, which is one of many reasons Taylor gets paid the big bucks. Taylor talked about how emotionally tough, resilient, and hard fighting the players are, so part of this sounded a bit like a leap of faith that our players' constitutions will get us through this. That didn't work the last few years but at this point we can only have faith in Taylor and hope it turns out differently. If I picked up on any motivational tactic in this department, it may have been in Taylor's talk about the character and resiliency of our players and how character will define you and define the team. He may be challenging our players to be resilient and judging (and maybe playing?) players based on how they answer that call.

[msqueri]

* I had the "benefit" (ha!) of well over a hundred data points of listening to Shaw talk about matchups with opposing defenses and eventually became very cynical, coming to the viewpoint that he used buzz words/jargon/familiar talking points to describe opponents rather than true insight into particular opponents. It was one of numerous things that led me to believe he was a pretender when it came to offensive acumen. In contrast, it's very early days with Taylor and I hesitate to opine anything. That said, the way he talked about passing windows and the "one high" defense sounded like insight, though on the other hand it also sounded cribbed from Fisch's self-description and maybe Taylor watched that press conference as it was a day earlier. Anyway, a big part of Taylor's theory of the case is that he can scheme advantage on offense in a way Shaw proved incapable, so it would be great to start seeing signs of Taylor knowing how to diagnose and exploit defenses. Obviously the Sacramento State success is an important body of evidence, but it's the big leagues now. Fingers crossed (not that this season is when we should expect to see advantage).

* For what it's worth, Arizona's defense is less touted than their offense. There's a discrepancy so far between conventional stats and advanced metrics - 27th in scoring and 43rd in yards per play (46th in points per drive), but 94th in SP+ and #103 in FEI. As I noted, PFF also thinks they have real vulnerabilities. If we're going to compete in this game, in addition to turnovers I think the offense/Karty need to put points on the board. I think a reasonable sign of progress would be scoring more than we did against Sacramento State (also about our average this season of 23.3).

* Taylor made a comment that as the year goes on people will see that Arizona is a really good team and that we need to play well to give ourselves a shot. This sounds like expectation management and understanding we're quite likely to be outclassed again. But I also find this interesting for Taylor's forecast of the kind of team Arizona is. I think they are the team in the Pac-12 nobody talks about. Fisch came in 2021 and, after inheriting an 0-5 team from the pandemic year, went 1-11/Sagarin #118 team in 2021, 5-7/Sagarin #68 in 2022, and now is, like I said, the team nobody is talking about at Sagarin #63 (which is still influenced by preseason expectations but could go up if Taylor and I are right about their promising trajectory). This is the trajectory we want out of Taylor and I think he is probably conscious to the comparison.

* I was somewhat encouraged by Taylor's answer about building the guys back up after a demoralizing loss. I fully expected the "I'm not worried about that" happy talk about the team's great attitude and how much it means to them. That was fine in the off-season but becomes decreasingly credible, drivel even, as losses mount (especially demoralizing losses like the last two, though to an important degree all losses are demoralizing). Instead, we got a different tune from Taylor, that he's always concerned about that given how much they put into it and how it's "definitely demoralizing" when it doesn't work out. I appreciate the candor and clear eyes. He was also honest that wins are energizing and defeats are deflating. He said what you want to focus on is that the hangover only lasts 24 hours. He also seemed clear eyed that there's a tradeoff between the Monday day off (important to heal physically) and getting back to work. Reading between the lines, I think Taylor knows that mounting losses and the inescapable effect on morale is one of the major challenges he faces, maybe the biggest one. It's one thing to understand intellectually that a rebuild takes time and we're slowly putting in place the building blocks, but it's another to emotionally ride it out. If fun and confidence and buy-in and willingness to stick it out get zapped, the window to effect change (i.e., rebuild) can close. Taylor has to guard against this. I don't know what the secret is for a rebuilding program to navigate that, which is one of many reasons Taylor gets paid the big bucks. Taylor talked about how emotionally tough, resilient, and hard fighting the players are, so part of this sounded a bit like a leap of faith that our players' constitutions will get us through this. That didn't work the last few years but at this point we can only have faith in Taylor and hope it turns out differently. If I picked up on any motivational tactic in this department, it may have been in Taylor's talk about the character and resiliency of our players and how character will define you and define the team. He may be challenging our players to be resilient and judging (and maybe playing?) players based on how they answer that call.