11-05-2023, 01:55 PM
6. Back to last night's game, what a run defense performance! Washington State sucks at rushing (#127 in yards per carry and #130 in rushing yards per game) but we stuffed them above and beyond the norm. This was the most they've been stifled on the ground in a little over five years. The main takeaway for me is that even adjusting for opponent we have been good at run defense three weeks in a row (UCLA, Washington, Washington State all in succession). Run defense has been on a clear upswing, showing signs of that vaunted Wisconsin run defense we hired April to bring. Super encouraging. Lest anyone think run defense had all the fun yesterday, the pass defense was great too. This was squarely one of the three best jobs any team has done containing Ward and the Wazzu passing game, behind UCLA and comparable to Arizona. Despite Washington State being a good (top 40) passing offense, this was the best pass defense game for Stanford all season, our best since the Notre Dame game 16 games ago. The upward trajectory for the pass defense isn't as evident as it is for run defense but I think it's there too. We have a much better defense right now than we did earlier in the season.
7. The offense's passing game, on the other hand....sigh. This was one to forget. And considering one of the biggest pass plays came from Lamson and Daniels' stats were spared what could have easily been multiple interceptions (though in fairness Farrell did Daniels no favors on a deep one), it was a really bad night for Daniels. Washington State is thoroughly mediocre in pass defense (#75 in yards per attempt allowed, #57 in passer rating allowed), yet last night was by far our worst yards per attempt of the season and right there with the USC game for our worst passer rating. It was the worst anybody has done against Washington State since Air Force in 2019, and Air Force doesn't really pass. Among offenses that try to pass, you have to go back over five years to 2018 Wyoming and San Jose State to find passing games this horrible against Washington State. Just an abomination by Daniels and Co. yesterday. In terms of the run game, as we know we don't have much there outside of QB runs. Only Colorado State has been more ineffectual rushing against WSU than we were. What's amazing to me, though, is how many programs struggle on the ground. We actually have a higher yards per carry on the season than Arizona State, Washington State, and Colorado. As we evaluate our team we need to keep in mind evolution in football and the personality of offenses. It turns out that we are equally competitive, relative to Pac-12 opponents, rushing as we are passing (ninth in the Pac-12 in both according to various metrics). Food for thought before anybody gets too excited about what the passing game has done this season.
8. The fan rhetoric on Daniels got a bit over-inflated following the Washington game and can now come down to earth a bit. I am confident he is better than he played yesterday, but on balance I think it's premature to say we have a good QB. Total QBR says #84 of 132 QBs nationally this season. While it was Daniels' worst Total QBR score of the year among the games with significant pass attempts (41.8), it was somewhat in line with his average performances nationally (#88 of 129 QBs nationally this week), which I presume is due to numbers deflating writ large as competition gets tighter. Lamson was #100 in that weekly ranking, but I don't think Total QBR can really measure what Lamson does for our offense. [By way of comparison, PFF gave Lamson an elite 86.8 grade, though I often prefer Total QBR to PFF for QBs.] Lamson is a crucial component in helping us manage short yardage high leverage conversions, all the more important given our general struggles on offense, and he even had the pass yesterday that most contributed to our scoring. Conversely, I viewed Daniels' game as worse than Total QBR assessed. After typically showing good judgment this season, he had several total bonehead plays and easily could (should?) have lost us the game on the throw in the end zone that wasn't intercepted (the one Ungar couldn't come down with over the deflection). I am hopeful this is a good learning opportunity for Daniels and we see more games like the Washington game than like this going forward. I think the jury is still deliberating on Daniels. Elsewhere on offense, Rogers had his best PFF grade this season and still hasn't missed a snap all year, Baklenko graded even better than he did in his first game (so far so good but I'm still a bit chastened by the Leyrer experience), Roush made nice contributions in the passing game, and Ayomanor's grit contributed by drawing the defense's attention (and a few pass interferences and some of our best success getting at least a modicum of chunk yardage, though there wasn't much at all of that overall especially given the penalty that nullified the really long gain). [This week's moving the chains (first downs) leaderboard: Lamson (6), Roush (3), Daniels (3), Ayomanor (2, plus drew two interference penalties), Bachmeier, Smith] As I said last week, I need Farrell to be over-recruited.
9. I don't recall if I've ever seen PFF grade a game like this for Stanford's defense. Among our top 17 defenders in snaps every single one had a 58+ grade and 11 of the 13 main defenders had a 63+ grade. Truly a full team defensive effort. Nobody was dominant but everybody played well. Highlighting individuals sort of misses the point on a night like that but I do like to recognize performance so I'll note that it may have been the strongest ILB game I've seen from Stanford in a long, long time. Both Bernadel and Sinclair had five positively contributing plays. Elsewhere on defense Tafiti continues to emerge as our playmaker in lieu of Bailey, this time with a hurry, sack, and tackle for loss while Bailey rode the pine, and Franklin had a pretty nice bounce back. Due to Gilman's injury, special teams standout Morris got his first significant defensive action and acquitted himself solidly. Edwards was pretty lucky on the interception but always have to shout out takeaways. Manley had a quiet game, which is good for a corner, and then had a key pass breakup to force a punt in crunch time. A week after seeming to lose out on his role to Aybar, Keneley had his first 70+ PFF grade of the season, though I only counted two positively contributing plays. It really was a fantastic team effort all around from a group of defenders who lack impact players but showed themselves capable of playing well together to combine for an elite performance. Like I said, I am not sure if there is precedent for a Stanford defensive performance with such solid weak links across the board. I also am not sure how much precedent there is for a dominant team defensive performance without any 80+ PFF grades. Total team effort by the defense.
7. The offense's passing game, on the other hand....sigh. This was one to forget. And considering one of the biggest pass plays came from Lamson and Daniels' stats were spared what could have easily been multiple interceptions (though in fairness Farrell did Daniels no favors on a deep one), it was a really bad night for Daniels. Washington State is thoroughly mediocre in pass defense (#75 in yards per attempt allowed, #57 in passer rating allowed), yet last night was by far our worst yards per attempt of the season and right there with the USC game for our worst passer rating. It was the worst anybody has done against Washington State since Air Force in 2019, and Air Force doesn't really pass. Among offenses that try to pass, you have to go back over five years to 2018 Wyoming and San Jose State to find passing games this horrible against Washington State. Just an abomination by Daniels and Co. yesterday. In terms of the run game, as we know we don't have much there outside of QB runs. Only Colorado State has been more ineffectual rushing against WSU than we were. What's amazing to me, though, is how many programs struggle on the ground. We actually have a higher yards per carry on the season than Arizona State, Washington State, and Colorado. As we evaluate our team we need to keep in mind evolution in football and the personality of offenses. It turns out that we are equally competitive, relative to Pac-12 opponents, rushing as we are passing (ninth in the Pac-12 in both according to various metrics). Food for thought before anybody gets too excited about what the passing game has done this season.
8. The fan rhetoric on Daniels got a bit over-inflated following the Washington game and can now come down to earth a bit. I am confident he is better than he played yesterday, but on balance I think it's premature to say we have a good QB. Total QBR says #84 of 132 QBs nationally this season. While it was Daniels' worst Total QBR score of the year among the games with significant pass attempts (41.8), it was somewhat in line with his average performances nationally (#88 of 129 QBs nationally this week), which I presume is due to numbers deflating writ large as competition gets tighter. Lamson was #100 in that weekly ranking, but I don't think Total QBR can really measure what Lamson does for our offense. [By way of comparison, PFF gave Lamson an elite 86.8 grade, though I often prefer Total QBR to PFF for QBs.] Lamson is a crucial component in helping us manage short yardage high leverage conversions, all the more important given our general struggles on offense, and he even had the pass yesterday that most contributed to our scoring. Conversely, I viewed Daniels' game as worse than Total QBR assessed. After typically showing good judgment this season, he had several total bonehead plays and easily could (should?) have lost us the game on the throw in the end zone that wasn't intercepted (the one Ungar couldn't come down with over the deflection). I am hopeful this is a good learning opportunity for Daniels and we see more games like the Washington game than like this going forward. I think the jury is still deliberating on Daniels. Elsewhere on offense, Rogers had his best PFF grade this season and still hasn't missed a snap all year, Baklenko graded even better than he did in his first game (so far so good but I'm still a bit chastened by the Leyrer experience), Roush made nice contributions in the passing game, and Ayomanor's grit contributed by drawing the defense's attention (and a few pass interferences and some of our best success getting at least a modicum of chunk yardage, though there wasn't much at all of that overall especially given the penalty that nullified the really long gain). [This week's moving the chains (first downs) leaderboard: Lamson (6), Roush (3), Daniels (3), Ayomanor (2, plus drew two interference penalties), Bachmeier, Smith] As I said last week, I need Farrell to be over-recruited.
9. I don't recall if I've ever seen PFF grade a game like this for Stanford's defense. Among our top 17 defenders in snaps every single one had a 58+ grade and 11 of the 13 main defenders had a 63+ grade. Truly a full team defensive effort. Nobody was dominant but everybody played well. Highlighting individuals sort of misses the point on a night like that but I do like to recognize performance so I'll note that it may have been the strongest ILB game I've seen from Stanford in a long, long time. Both Bernadel and Sinclair had five positively contributing plays. Elsewhere on defense Tafiti continues to emerge as our playmaker in lieu of Bailey, this time with a hurry, sack, and tackle for loss while Bailey rode the pine, and Franklin had a pretty nice bounce back. Due to Gilman's injury, special teams standout Morris got his first significant defensive action and acquitted himself solidly. Edwards was pretty lucky on the interception but always have to shout out takeaways. Manley had a quiet game, which is good for a corner, and then had a key pass breakup to force a punt in crunch time. A week after seeming to lose out on his role to Aybar, Keneley had his first 70+ PFF grade of the season, though I only counted two positively contributing plays. It really was a fantastic team effort all around from a group of defenders who lack impact players but showed themselves capable of playing well together to combine for an elite performance. Like I said, I am not sure if there is precedent for a Stanford defensive performance with such solid weak links across the board. I also am not sure how much precedent there is for a dominant team defensive performance without any 80+ PFF grades. Total team effort by the defense.