[msqueri]

I don't disagree that counting wins is the ultimate measure of success on the building-back road.
But I suggest that "competitiveness" is a close second.
Which is more of a subjective, hard to rigorously define criteria.
But a simple yardstick for me is, how many games do we go into the half thinking that we still have a chance to win this thing?
Playing a competitive game against a team like, say Notre Dame, that ends in a loss, is still a disappointing loss.
But it would indicate progress and hope compared to the alternative of blow out after blow out.

Systems like Sagarin and SP+ give us objective, independent, meaningful ways to gauge competitiveness so we don’t have to rely on subjective, difficult to define criteria. It says something meaningful to be #60 vs. #80 vs. #100. Indeed, the model I posted about predicts that we won’t win many more games than last year but will be better than last year. That would be progress. Where subjective judgment comes in would be determining how much progress is enough/fast enough. But personally I think it is straightforward for fans to assess whether teams are getting better or not. Thanks to very good algorithms and models I could rank for you every team in my lifetime and feel confident that the distinctions drawn are pretty meaningful. You can’t do that as well with wins but for something like Sagarin or SP+ this isn’t that mysterious. Different models will have slight differences though so it’s worth comparing apples to apples.

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1716390329[/url]']
It's obvious to say, but the team will not improve without significant additions/development of new talent on defensive. I'm excited about the Yale transfer (assuming he actually enrolls). We can be hopeful that JFR takes a step forward. David Bailey failed to have an impact matching his talent level for pretty much all of 2023, but I don't think his talent evaporated.

Who am I missing that can potentially make a big difference on defense with improved play? I think it's a woefully short list, unfortunately.

As for the Stanford offense, I can't help but notice that Stanford faces six top 40 defenses, per the rankings above: ND (No. 9), Clemson (No. 13), Louisville (23), NC State (25), Virginia Tech (33) and SMU (39). The season opener is against TCU, which on defense is ranked 44th. Even for those of you bullish on Taylor's offense (I am not), it will a tough road to improvement on the scoreline.

You forgot our best defensive player, Collin Wright. I would look to him and Bailey as the most likely stars. Before the Yale transfer I would look to Anthony Franklin to step up at DL. Tobin Phillips worth keeping an eye on too. Not sure I share your optimism on JFR but hopefully he can take a step, and Edwards and Manley are already solid. Tafiti strikes me as the best candidate for a breakout beyond these. Can hold our hope that enormous experience unlocks something for one of the inside linebackers, though they haven’t excelled to date. My list to look to for potential stars on defense would be Wright, Bailey, Tafiti, Edwards, Franklin, and Phillips, probably in that order. 

That’s an interesting observation about six of the top 40 defenses. It doesn’t strike me as something to quake at but not easy either.

[msqueri]

I don't disagree that counting wins is the ultimate measure of success on the building-back road.
But I suggest that "competitiveness" is a close second.
Which is more of a subjective, hard to rigorously define criteria.
But a simple yardstick for me is, how many games do we go into the half thinking that we still have a chance to win this thing?
Playing a competitive game against a team like, say Notre Dame, that ends in a loss, is still a disappointing loss.
But it would indicate progress and hope compared to the alternative of blow out after blow out.

Systems like Sagarin and SP+ give us objective, independent, meaningful ways to gauge competitiveness so we don’t have to rely on subjective, difficult to define criteria. It says something meaningful to be #60 vs. #80 vs. #100. Indeed, the model I posted about predicts that we won’t win many more games than last year but will be better than last year. That would be progress. Where subjective judgment comes in would be determining how much progress is enough/fast enough. But personally I think it is straightforward for fans to assess whether teams are getting better or not. Thanks to very good algorithms and models I could rank for you every team in my lifetime and feel confident that the distinctions drawn are pretty meaningful. You can’t do that as well with wins but for something like Sagarin or SP+ this isn’t that mysterious. Different models will have slight differences though so it’s worth comparing apples to apples.

---

1716390329[/url]']
It's obvious to say, but the team will not improve without significant additions/development of new talent on defensive. I'm excited about the Yale transfer (assuming he actually enrolls). We can be hopeful that JFR takes a step forward. David Bailey failed to have an impact matching his talent level for pretty much all of 2023, but I don't think his talent evaporated.

Who am I missing that can potentially make a big difference on defense with improved play? I think it's a woefully short list, unfortunately.

As for the Stanford offense, I can't help but notice that Stanford faces six top 40 defenses, per the rankings above: ND (No. 9), Clemson (No. 13), Louisville (23), NC State (25), Virginia Tech (33) and SMU (39). The season opener is against TCU, which on defense is ranked 44th. Even for those of you bullish on Taylor's offense (I am not), it will a tough road to improvement on the scoreline.

You forgot our best defensive player, Collin Wright. I would look to him and Bailey as the most likely stars. Before the Yale transfer I would look to Anthony Franklin to step up at DL. Tobin Phillips worth keeping an eye on too. Not sure I share your optimism on JFR but hopefully he can take a step, and Edwards and Manley are already solid. Tafiti strikes me as the best candidate for a breakout beyond these. Can hold our hope that enormous experience unlocks something for one of the inside linebackers, though they haven’t excelled to date. My list to look to for potential stars on defense would be Wright, Bailey, Tafiti, Edwards, Franklin, and Phillips, probably in that order. 

That’s an interesting observation about six of the top 40 defenses. It doesn’t strike me as something to quake at but not easy either.