09-21-2024, 01:57 PM
It looks like SP+ before the game gave Syracuse a 67% chance to win: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...=258607518
So, Friday night's result qualifies as a Stanford upset victory, but certainly it wasn't a shocking result to SP+ (for some frame of reference, other games with the same 67% win probabilities this weekend are Arkansas at projected winner Auburn and projected winner Tennessee at Oklahoma, both of which I'd describe as coin flip games, fwliw).
So, Friday night's result qualifies as a Stanford upset victory, but certainly it wasn't a shocking result to SP+ (for some frame of reference, other games with the same 67% win probabilities this weekend are Arkansas at projected winner Auburn and projected winner Tennessee at Oklahoma, both of which I'd describe as coin flip games, fwliw).