09-28-2025, 02:52 PM
1. 2-0 at home! This is the first time we've had multiple home wins in September since 2018. For a program that has won at home so seldomly in recent years, winning the first two home games means something. We are seeing few signs of progress on the field and likely have to wait at least another year until it feels like we're turning a corner but in the meantime winning feels better than losing and we can hope that we're taking small steps in the right direction. One of the things that has subjectively felt better this season (so I'm told by those in attendance/so I feel watching on tv from across the country) is a modest but perceptible uptick in fan enthusiasm and atmosphere in these first two home games. The only way to build on that into something meaningful is for home fans to have fun watching the team, and nothing is more crucial to that than winning. To me that is the positive takeaway here and the thing we can hope to build on. C-House chants in the locker room and fans leaving the parking lots in a decent mood.
2. The game itself was not much of a feather in our cap for showing that the team is improving so we will have to be content with the win and a few good individual performances. For the second year in a row we looked like an even match for San Jose State and, like last year, the game could have gone either way. Last time we shot ourselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties and lost. This time San Jose State was a bit better than us on a yards per play basis and, alarmingly, at the line of scrimmage, but their two missed chip shot field goals and having a kicker they don't trust (likely impacting the 4th and 7 call that ended up a turnover on downs and maybe the two point conversion call that resulted in no additional points) ended up hurting them significantly more than our brobdingnagian amount of penalties. [Stanford has committed 210 yards of penalties across the last two San Jose State games....] It's pretty depressing that we are so comparable to San Jose State as a program right now. Sagarin says Stanford is #90 and San Jose State #99 after last year San Jose State was #100 and Stanford was #102. [Our scoreboard results this season have been befitting #86, #115, #50, #146, and #123, though in the last case the home field advantage is almost certainly inaccurate. If yesterday were viewed as a neutral site yesterday would have been #94.]
3. The offense was better than the defense for the second time in as many weeks. We scored 2.5 points per drive, making the #78 points per drive defense look like #87, and the offense at least scored more and had more yards and yards per play than Central Michigan and Idaho did against the Spartans. That's not a great performance but it's a heck of a lot better than the defense, which gave up 2.42 points per non-garbage drive (excluding the end of the first half), making the #133 points per drive offense look like the #58 offense, and gave up more than double the points Central Michigan did and only two points less than Idaho while having worse yards per play than Central Michigan. The offense had its highest total yardage and yards per play yet this season, the most yards per play in a win against an FBS opponent since the 2021 games against USC and Vanderbilt. The defense had its second game in a row giving up more than 500 yards and more than 7 yards per play, the first time that has happened since the miserable UCLA-Washington State-Utah stretch in 2022 that cemented Shaw's fate. The offense has been up and the defense down the last two weeks.
4. Fundamentally, though, on both sides of the ball we are seeing struggles in the trenches/at the line of scrimmage that seem to make this team destined to be a bad team. On offense, we gave up four sacks and are 118th in sacks allowed and again could not get the run game going. On defense, we had no sacks of our own and only three tackles for loss (124th on the season in tackles for loss) and again gave a QB enough of a clean pocket to pick us apart for massive damage. Until Stanford can figure out the trenches I don't see how we graduate from being a bad team. In this game the struggles of our run game and pass defense seemed indicative of what happens when you don't get push on either side of the ball. It was the third time in four games we have been held under 40 yards rushing and under a yard and a half per carry. That's pretty sorry to do that against San Jose State, which against a schedule that has included Central Michigan and Idaho as two of the three other games is giving up 4.55 yards per carry and 170 rushing yards per game. We are now 129th in yards per carry and appear to have little shot running the ball against decent defenses. On pass defense, 473 yards is a lot to give up in the air but this was actually right in our season average ballpark both in yards per attempt allowed and defensive passer rating. That's not meant as a compliment. We are 115th in defensive passer rating and yesterday was a lot worse than Central Michigan and Texas pass defenses did. The last two games are throwing some cold water on early season notions the pass defense might be improved. San Jose State basically gave up on the run, only rushing 14 times, but that may unfortunately say as much about the Spartans as it does about us. Central Michigan and Texas both stifled their run better than we did on a yards per carry basis.
5. While we muddle through with the limitations we have in blocking, we are becoming fairly dependent on the big plays, especially in the passing game. We are 105th in the nation in yards per play yet 8th in the nation in 40+ yard passing plays. In other words, we suck but have an offense that, at least so far, can take the top of a defense. I think a lot of credit goes to both Reich, for identifying things in blitzes/coverages like what we exploited on the play of the game on the 4th and 10 connection to High, and to Gulbranson, for his many beautiful deep balls already this season. What I most liked about yesterday, though, was that Gulbranson succeeded not only via the long ball but otherwise too. There were a number of depths and routes that we moved the chains on, and the ball got spread around nicely, with four 60+ yard receivers, including Ford out of the backfield with a brobdingnagian catch and run. It all added up to the historic 444 yards passing stat line, the third most in our history. Gulbranson had half a yard per attempt better than Arch Manning did against San Jose State, though Manning's Total QBR and passer rating were both better than Gulbranson. As can often happen, Total QBR and PFF had different verdicts, with Total QBR pegging Gulbranson as a competent 49th of 102 quarterbacks nationally this week and PFF thinking he was an excellent 15th of 107 nationally (these discrepancies often happen because the former adjusts for competition and the latter does not). By Total QBR's lights, Gulbranson is playing extremely consistently, with the Virginia, San Jose State, and Boston College games the 10th, 11th, and 12th best Total QBR marks of his 20 career QB1 games. It seems we've been seeing the real Gulbranson the last three games. Obviously he is firmly entrenched as QB1. With the offensive line playing how it is, Gulbranson's contributions seem all the more impressive and valuable.
2. The game itself was not much of a feather in our cap for showing that the team is improving so we will have to be content with the win and a few good individual performances. For the second year in a row we looked like an even match for San Jose State and, like last year, the game could have gone either way. Last time we shot ourselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties and lost. This time San Jose State was a bit better than us on a yards per play basis and, alarmingly, at the line of scrimmage, but their two missed chip shot field goals and having a kicker they don't trust (likely impacting the 4th and 7 call that ended up a turnover on downs and maybe the two point conversion call that resulted in no additional points) ended up hurting them significantly more than our brobdingnagian amount of penalties. [Stanford has committed 210 yards of penalties across the last two San Jose State games....] It's pretty depressing that we are so comparable to San Jose State as a program right now. Sagarin says Stanford is #90 and San Jose State #99 after last year San Jose State was #100 and Stanford was #102. [Our scoreboard results this season have been befitting #86, #115, #50, #146, and #123, though in the last case the home field advantage is almost certainly inaccurate. If yesterday were viewed as a neutral site yesterday would have been #94.]
3. The offense was better than the defense for the second time in as many weeks. We scored 2.5 points per drive, making the #78 points per drive defense look like #87, and the offense at least scored more and had more yards and yards per play than Central Michigan and Idaho did against the Spartans. That's not a great performance but it's a heck of a lot better than the defense, which gave up 2.42 points per non-garbage drive (excluding the end of the first half), making the #133 points per drive offense look like the #58 offense, and gave up more than double the points Central Michigan did and only two points less than Idaho while having worse yards per play than Central Michigan. The offense had its highest total yardage and yards per play yet this season, the most yards per play in a win against an FBS opponent since the 2021 games against USC and Vanderbilt. The defense had its second game in a row giving up more than 500 yards and more than 7 yards per play, the first time that has happened since the miserable UCLA-Washington State-Utah stretch in 2022 that cemented Shaw's fate. The offense has been up and the defense down the last two weeks.
4. Fundamentally, though, on both sides of the ball we are seeing struggles in the trenches/at the line of scrimmage that seem to make this team destined to be a bad team. On offense, we gave up four sacks and are 118th in sacks allowed and again could not get the run game going. On defense, we had no sacks of our own and only three tackles for loss (124th on the season in tackles for loss) and again gave a QB enough of a clean pocket to pick us apart for massive damage. Until Stanford can figure out the trenches I don't see how we graduate from being a bad team. In this game the struggles of our run game and pass defense seemed indicative of what happens when you don't get push on either side of the ball. It was the third time in four games we have been held under 40 yards rushing and under a yard and a half per carry. That's pretty sorry to do that against San Jose State, which against a schedule that has included Central Michigan and Idaho as two of the three other games is giving up 4.55 yards per carry and 170 rushing yards per game. We are now 129th in yards per carry and appear to have little shot running the ball against decent defenses. On pass defense, 473 yards is a lot to give up in the air but this was actually right in our season average ballpark both in yards per attempt allowed and defensive passer rating. That's not meant as a compliment. We are 115th in defensive passer rating and yesterday was a lot worse than Central Michigan and Texas pass defenses did. The last two games are throwing some cold water on early season notions the pass defense might be improved. San Jose State basically gave up on the run, only rushing 14 times, but that may unfortunately say as much about the Spartans as it does about us. Central Michigan and Texas both stifled their run better than we did on a yards per carry basis.
5. While we muddle through with the limitations we have in blocking, we are becoming fairly dependent on the big plays, especially in the passing game. We are 105th in the nation in yards per play yet 8th in the nation in 40+ yard passing plays. In other words, we suck but have an offense that, at least so far, can take the top of a defense. I think a lot of credit goes to both Reich, for identifying things in blitzes/coverages like what we exploited on the play of the game on the 4th and 10 connection to High, and to Gulbranson, for his many beautiful deep balls already this season. What I most liked about yesterday, though, was that Gulbranson succeeded not only via the long ball but otherwise too. There were a number of depths and routes that we moved the chains on, and the ball got spread around nicely, with four 60+ yard receivers, including Ford out of the backfield with a brobdingnagian catch and run. It all added up to the historic 444 yards passing stat line, the third most in our history. Gulbranson had half a yard per attempt better than Arch Manning did against San Jose State, though Manning's Total QBR and passer rating were both better than Gulbranson. As can often happen, Total QBR and PFF had different verdicts, with Total QBR pegging Gulbranson as a competent 49th of 102 quarterbacks nationally this week and PFF thinking he was an excellent 15th of 107 nationally (these discrepancies often happen because the former adjusts for competition and the latter does not). By Total QBR's lights, Gulbranson is playing extremely consistently, with the Virginia, San Jose State, and Boston College games the 10th, 11th, and 12th best Total QBR marks of his 20 career QB1 games. It seems we've been seeing the real Gulbranson the last three games. Obviously he is firmly entrenched as QB1. With the offensive line playing how it is, Gulbranson's contributions seem all the more impressive and valuable.