09-14-2026, 02:40 PM
(09-14-2026, 12:56 PM)rogpodge Wrote: https://x.com/CFBNumbers/status/2099519159772061835
For advanced stats folks, Stanford has an average offense and the defense isn't very good. Duke has a significant better defense (a bit above average), but a not great offense. Weird because they looked pretty good last week on offense against a favored Illinois team (and Illinois had a slightly better success rate).
Appreciate the link. Some observations, but first a quote: "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics".
I assume their data is based on 2026 games so far and nothing else? If so, then yes our D doesn't look good in points per play, because in one out of our 2 games, one of the top teams in the country with one of the best QB to WR combos, torched us for a lot of passing yards and pts.
With big passing plays based drives, you get relatively a lot of points per play because it's less plays than if you march down the field on 5 to 10 yard runs per play and then score. So the upside for us was that we had pretty good run prevention (not great, but I'll bet better than average over Miami's course of their season), so when they had more success with the pass, that's what they went with. In Miami's second game they ran wild as well as passed wild, unstoppable in both.
Another quote comes to mind: "Past performance is not indicative of future results"
I think our D going forward the next few games will look better than the statistical past performance that includes Miami, with (hopefully) Miami becoming more of an outlier.
Further to the point of this quote, what about injury reports?
If different guys are playing, that can jumble up any statistical predictions.
In this regard, what about Duke's QB Eget, is he hurt or OK to play, if OK to play, is he mobile or limited to standing in the pocket and maybe taking a sack?
What about our multiple injured OLine starters, are any of them heading out of the infirmary and back onto the field? And Benji Blackburn too?
So I await an injury report to sway some expectations away from prior stats and more towards hoped-for results.
