[washingtonismoney]

I think I'm the only one who wonders if we might have another change at quarterback next year. Kevin Hogan did a good job for us over the final five games, especially compared to the performance we were getting at quarterback before he took over. But he wasn't Superman. It seems to me there's room for a challenge from Dallas Lloyd, if Lloyd is really the quarterback he was cracked up to be when we recruited him.

I think Hogan's pretty safe unless Lloyd is Superman. He performed quite well for:
a) a redshirt freshmen
b) with so-so at best wide receivers
c) who played four straight ranked opponents
d) whose opponents were mostly on the road (two home games, three away games, one neutral site)

There's probably some recency bias here -- we remember the Rose Bowl. He did struggle against Wisconsin, but I think it's mitigated by two things: one, it was his first real stinker of a game; two, Wisconsin, while possessing a mediocre overall record, actually had a very good defense -- they surrendered under 20 ppg and under 5 yards per play. That's pretty good.

I also can't stress enough the "opponents" factor. Comparing Hogan to any other college QB statistically is highly difficult -- I would guess he was #1 easily in strength of schedule.

What makes me feel most positively about Hogan are his statistics with two TEs on the field. Luck in 2011 averaged 9.7 yards per attempt; Hogan, 9.2. To me, that indicates that when Hogan has good talent surrounding him, he can be more than good enough.

EDIT: that said, it's not as if we have a sure thing on our hands with Hogan. That was Andrew Luck. Hogan's merely a pretty good bet.

Also see: http://www.ruleoftree.com/2012/12/27/380...quite-good

[washingtonismoney]

I think I'm the only one who wonders if we might have another change at quarterback next year. Kevin Hogan did a good job for us over the final five games, especially compared to the performance we were getting at quarterback before he took over. But he wasn't Superman. It seems to me there's room for a challenge from Dallas Lloyd, if Lloyd is really the quarterback he was cracked up to be when we recruited him.

I think Hogan's pretty safe unless Lloyd is Superman. He performed quite well for:
a) a redshirt freshmen
b) with so-so at best wide receivers
c) who played four straight ranked opponents
d) whose opponents were mostly on the road (two home games, three away games, one neutral site)

There's probably some recency bias here -- we remember the Rose Bowl. He did struggle against Wisconsin, but I think it's mitigated by two things: one, it was his first real stinker of a game; two, Wisconsin, while possessing a mediocre overall record, actually had a very good defense -- they surrendered under 20 ppg and under 5 yards per play. That's pretty good.

I also can't stress enough the "opponents" factor. Comparing Hogan to any other college QB statistically is highly difficult -- I would guess he was #1 easily in strength of schedule.

What makes me feel most positively about Hogan are his statistics with two TEs on the field. Luck in 2011 averaged 9.7 yards per attempt; Hogan, 9.2. To me, that indicates that when Hogan has good talent surrounding him, he can be more than good enough.

EDIT: that said, it's not as if we have a sure thing on our hands with Hogan. That was Andrew Luck. Hogan's merely a pretty good bet.

Also see: http://www.ruleoftree.com/2012/12/27/380...quite-good