[81alum]

Lately the committee has been placing #2 seeds by geography instead of following the S-curve. I.e., the top #2 seed plays in the regional closest to home, not the one with the bottom #1 seed. Dunno if that will happen this year or not.

If that is what they will do, then C.al would be the 2 in Spokane and we would get our rubber game in the Elite Eight.  The other teams (Duke, Penn State, and Kentucky) would all think getting sent to Spokane was a major geographic slight. 

So the committee will have a choice:  1) Send a west coast team to play east and an east coast team to play west to prevent conference matchups--making those 2s unhappy, or 2) make all the 2s happy with their geography by throwing away any effort to avoid conference rematches in the Elite Eight.  They could still avoid conference matchups through the sweet sixteen.  And they could rationalize putting Cal in Spokane by noting that we have only played them twice--not three times like UConn/Notre Dame etc.

If we wind up ranked 4 (and with UConn's loss tonight the case can be made that we should be ranked 3 now--our RPI is 2!) and Duke is ranked 5, would you really want to punish the best of the 2 seeds (Duke) by sending them all the way out west?  Wouldn't you give the best of the 2 seeds more favorable geography and punish a lower 2 seed?  That is probably why Creme has Penn State getting the boot out West to play us--but it could also be Kentucky.

Who would we rather play if we get that far?  Cal, Duke, Kentucky, or Penn State?  Duke seems better than they were last year even without Chelsea Gray, and I doubt that we are quite as good, so that match-up worries me.  They have three players shooting more than 40% from three--without Gray.  If we had Toni as a perimeter defender then I would worry about Duke less.  Cal worries me not just because they beat us, but because games become more defensive by the third time around and we are offensively challenged enough as it is.  I don't know much about Kentucky or Penn State.  I'm sure if I did I could find something to worry about with them too!

[81alum]

Lately the committee has been placing #2 seeds by geography instead of following the S-curve. I.e., the top #2 seed plays in the regional closest to home, not the one with the bottom #1 seed. Dunno if that will happen this year or not.

If that is what they will do, then C.al would be the 2 in Spokane and we would get our rubber game in the Elite Eight.  The other teams (Duke, Penn State, and Kentucky) would all think getting sent to Spokane was a major geographic slight. 

So the committee will have a choice:  1) Send a west coast team to play east and an east coast team to play west to prevent conference matchups--making those 2s unhappy, or 2) make all the 2s happy with their geography by throwing away any effort to avoid conference rematches in the Elite Eight.  They could still avoid conference matchups through the sweet sixteen.  And they could rationalize putting Cal in Spokane by noting that we have only played them twice--not three times like UConn/Notre Dame etc.

If we wind up ranked 4 (and with UConn's loss tonight the case can be made that we should be ranked 3 now--our RPI is 2!) and Duke is ranked 5, would you really want to punish the best of the 2 seeds (Duke) by sending them all the way out west?  Wouldn't you give the best of the 2 seeds more favorable geography and punish a lower 2 seed?  That is probably why Creme has Penn State getting the boot out West to play us--but it could also be Kentucky.

Who would we rather play if we get that far?  Cal, Duke, Kentucky, or Penn State?  Duke seems better than they were last year even without Chelsea Gray, and I doubt that we are quite as good, so that match-up worries me.  They have three players shooting more than 40% from three--without Gray.  If we had Toni as a perimeter defender then I would worry about Duke less.  Cal worries me not just because they beat us, but because games become more defensive by the third time around and we are offensively challenged enough as it is.  I don't know much about Kentucky or Penn State.  I'm sure if I did I could find something to worry about with them too!