[washingtonismoney]

I remember how razor thin the margin of error was in 2012.

In general I would agree -- I place a brobdingnagian importance on margin of victory and an edge in yards per play -- but I don't in this specific case. One: the schedule was quite difficult -- depending on who you ask, it was between a top 25 and top 10 schedule, difficulty-wise. Two: the transformation of the offense by Hogan. You won't see it in the headline statistics -- about 27 points per game pre- and post-Hogan -- but of course Hogan's stretch was by far more difficult, which masks offensive improvement. If the team were playing as well at the beginning of the season as it was at the end,  it would've accumulated much more impressive scoring margins.

But I am wary about Stanford's performance relative to a top 5 preseason standard. The reason for my concern is that you need to have an elite offense and defense. With the amount of overhaul in the offense, my reasonably-good-case scenario is that we'll be at that high standard in 2014, not 2013. Everything might come together perfectly in 2013 offensively, as it did in 2010 or (in the defensive backfield) in 2012. But, on the other hand, it might not. I think the team has the potential to be a top 5 team, but I don't see it as especially more likely than a lot of other teams.

We outscored teams by 10 per game last year -- a solid margin, one that makes a 10 win regular season a nice goal. To get up into the unbeaten regular season range, you need to be outscoring teams (generally; N.D. last year was an exception, but I think it proves the rule) by about 20 or so. Can we jump 10 ppg in a year? Some of the factors I mentioned above can do some of the job, but my intuition is that it's too far too fast in most scenarios. I don't rule out the upside scenario, though.

[washingtonismoney]

I remember how razor thin the margin of error was in 2012.

In general I would agree -- I place a brobdingnagian importance on margin of victory and an edge in yards per play -- but I don't in this specific case. One: the schedule was quite difficult -- depending on who you ask, it was between a top 25 and top 10 schedule, difficulty-wise. Two: the transformation of the offense by Hogan. You won't see it in the headline statistics -- about 27 points per game pre- and post-Hogan -- but of course Hogan's stretch was by far more difficult, which masks offensive improvement. If the team were playing as well at the beginning of the season as it was at the end,  it would've accumulated much more impressive scoring margins.

But I am wary about Stanford's performance relative to a top 5 preseason standard. The reason for my concern is that you need to have an elite offense and defense. With the amount of overhaul in the offense, my reasonably-good-case scenario is that we'll be at that high standard in 2014, not 2013. Everything might come together perfectly in 2013 offensively, as it did in 2010 or (in the defensive backfield) in 2012. But, on the other hand, it might not. I think the team has the potential to be a top 5 team, but I don't see it as especially more likely than a lot of other teams.

We outscored teams by 10 per game last year -- a solid margin, one that makes a 10 win regular season a nice goal. To get up into the unbeaten regular season range, you need to be outscoring teams (generally; N.D. last year was an exception, but I think it proves the rule) by about 20 or so. Can we jump 10 ppg in a year? Some of the factors I mentioned above can do some of the job, but my intuition is that it's too far too fast in most scenarios. I don't rule out the upside scenario, though.