[washingtonismoney]

I recall seeing an analysis that said the median outcome for a preseason top-10 team is like 10-2 or 9-3 (I don't remember exactly). I'd say that worse than 10-2 preseason would be a disappointment, given what we know now.

Well, let's look at last year's consensus preseason ranking:
1. Literature's Greatest Losers
2 Alabama
3 LSU
4 Oklahoma
5 Oregon
6 FSU
7 Georgia
8 Michigan
9 Texas
10 Arkansas

Just looking at 12 regular season games, the average number of wins for 2012 preseason were 9.
2011 = 10.2
2010 9.7

So your guess is about right. It seems like there's at least one (or more) teams with an embarrassing implosion per year from the consensus preseason top ten. Hoping it's not us.

[washingtonismoney]

I recall seeing an analysis that said the median outcome for a preseason top-10 team is like 10-2 or 9-3 (I don't remember exactly). I'd say that worse than 10-2 preseason would be a disappointment, given what we know now.

Well, let's look at last year's consensus preseason ranking:
1. Literature's Greatest Losers
2 Alabama
3 LSU
4 Oklahoma
5 Oregon
6 FSU
7 Georgia
8 Michigan
9 Texas
10 Arkansas

Just looking at 12 regular season games, the average number of wins for 2012 preseason were 9.
2011 = 10.2
2010 9.7

So your guess is about right. It seems like there's at least one (or more) teams with an embarrassing implosion per year from the consensus preseason top ten. Hoping it's not us.