11-13-2013, 11:16 AM
Right. A zero percent chance of Stanford finishing ahead of a non-Big East AQ conference undefeated team for a championship spot. (I could see Stanford finishing ahead of an undefeated team if that doesn't deny said team a NCG berth -- e.g. if it were unbeaten bama versus unbeaten FSU, with Stanford in third and Baylor fourth or something.)
However, if it's a one loss team situation, I have no idea what will happen -- the factor used to separate teams will be arbitrary. For example, David Pollack's UTAH IS AWFUL AND STANFORD SUCKS HERP DERP argument might end up dominating the bloodstream. On the other hand, it might be quality wins. Or it could be something like, "Alabama is undefeated and Stanford's uniforms are too similar, so let's take Baylor so as not to confuse the viewing audiences." Speaking objectively, it's hard to figure out a single right factor to separate approximately equal teams, which is why there's been so much support for a playoff all these years. Who knows.
But that still minimizes the winning-out task, which is more difficult than we give it credit for. I would not at all be surprised by a regular-season or Pac-12 CCG loss.
EDIT: just to follow up. I prefer yards per play -- and specifically margin between gained and given up -- as a quick heuristic stat to summarize the strength of the team. Since Kiff was fired, SC's been averaging a 1.67 yards per play gap -- which is gigantic, national-title contender stuff. That's obviously quite biased, however, from getting to play our dear friends the 59ers. So if you discount that completely, SC's only gained a yard per play more than given up -- about 6.04 to 5.04. In 2012, our team only averaged about .7 yards per play more. So SC is playing quite well, although to be fair they haven't played one of the elite Pac-12 teams post-Kiffin. Still, they soundly beat both Utah and Oregon State, which are solid Pac-12 team, and played even with N.D. on the road.
But I think the stats are a bit deceptive in another way: the state of injuries. SC is still banged up but it's not in the crisis situation it was previously. Lee is reportedly healthy. Agholor is healthy. Neither of these guys were fully healthy post-Kiff, IIRC. So these stats might understate their strength.
I expect Stanford to dominate SC's offensive line. It's our OL versus SC's defensive front that holds the key to the game. Our OL has struggled this year on the road, for one. For another, our team has found it relatively difficult to run the ball on two teams: the one that employs Tosh Lupoi, and Ed Orgeron's Tr.ojans. If SC can stalemate or better with our OL, our offense runs into a lot of problems, because suddenly Hogan has to carry the team. He's only really been successful at doing this early in the season -- against WSU and against ASU. SC's secondary doesn't impress me, but it's not a bet I'm interested in.
However, if it's a one loss team situation, I have no idea what will happen -- the factor used to separate teams will be arbitrary. For example, David Pollack's UTAH IS AWFUL AND STANFORD SUCKS HERP DERP argument might end up dominating the bloodstream. On the other hand, it might be quality wins. Or it could be something like, "Alabama is undefeated and Stanford's uniforms are too similar, so let's take Baylor so as not to confuse the viewing audiences." Speaking objectively, it's hard to figure out a single right factor to separate approximately equal teams, which is why there's been so much support for a playoff all these years. Who knows.
But that still minimizes the winning-out task, which is more difficult than we give it credit for. I would not at all be surprised by a regular-season or Pac-12 CCG loss.
EDIT: just to follow up. I prefer yards per play -- and specifically margin between gained and given up -- as a quick heuristic stat to summarize the strength of the team. Since Kiff was fired, SC's been averaging a 1.67 yards per play gap -- which is gigantic, national-title contender stuff. That's obviously quite biased, however, from getting to play our dear friends the 59ers. So if you discount that completely, SC's only gained a yard per play more than given up -- about 6.04 to 5.04. In 2012, our team only averaged about .7 yards per play more. So SC is playing quite well, although to be fair they haven't played one of the elite Pac-12 teams post-Kiffin. Still, they soundly beat both Utah and Oregon State, which are solid Pac-12 team, and played even with N.D. on the road.
But I think the stats are a bit deceptive in another way: the state of injuries. SC is still banged up but it's not in the crisis situation it was previously. Lee is reportedly healthy. Agholor is healthy. Neither of these guys were fully healthy post-Kiff, IIRC. So these stats might understate their strength.
I expect Stanford to dominate SC's offensive line. It's our OL versus SC's defensive front that holds the key to the game. Our OL has struggled this year on the road, for one. For another, our team has found it relatively difficult to run the ball on two teams: the one that employs Tosh Lupoi, and Ed Orgeron's Tr.ojans. If SC can stalemate or better with our OL, our offense runs into a lot of problems, because suddenly Hogan has to carry the team. He's only really been successful at doing this early in the season -- against WSU and against ASU. SC's secondary doesn't impress me, but it's not a bet I'm interested in.