[97fan]

The talking heads on ESPN have precisely 0 influence on this outcome. The coaches sure don't listen to them, neither do the computers. The Harris poll? Maybe.

If Alabama loses they'll be behind us. The computers will put us ahead of them and enough voters will drop them behind us that we'll move up. The problem is that we need Baylor and OSU to lose, oh and also we need to win our next 4 games. That combination of events just isn't very likely.

ESPN reflects, but to a large degree also establishes, the conventional wisdom of the college football world. And coaches who have a vote -- or the sports information directors who fill out the ballot for them -- will be influenced by the conventional wisdom in the same way that everyone else will.

But regardless of ESPN's role, I just don't see how Stanford would be able to overcome the irrational-but-still-powerful idea that Alabama, like a heavyweight champion, should get a chance to defend its title. To a large degree this is because they've won the championship two years in a row, and three out of the last four. Of course this is an unfair way to look at the situation, but it will shape people's perceptions.

There's certainly precedent for a one-loss team that didn't even play in its conference championship game getting a shot at the national title. It happened in 2011. Alabama was the team. And they won the title game. None of which would be forgotten in a scenario in which voters are comparing a one-loss Stanford to a one-loss Alabama.

[97fan]

The talking heads on ESPN have precisely 0 influence on this outcome. The coaches sure don't listen to them, neither do the computers. The Harris poll? Maybe.

If Alabama loses they'll be behind us. The computers will put us ahead of them and enough voters will drop them behind us that we'll move up. The problem is that we need Baylor and OSU to lose, oh and also we need to win our next 4 games. That combination of events just isn't very likely.

ESPN reflects, but to a large degree also establishes, the conventional wisdom of the college football world. And coaches who have a vote -- or the sports information directors who fill out the ballot for them -- will be influenced by the conventional wisdom in the same way that everyone else will.

But regardless of ESPN's role, I just don't see how Stanford would be able to overcome the irrational-but-still-powerful idea that Alabama, like a heavyweight champion, should get a chance to defend its title. To a large degree this is because they've won the championship two years in a row, and three out of the last four. Of course this is an unfair way to look at the situation, but it will shape people's perceptions.

There's certainly precedent for a one-loss team that didn't even play in its conference championship game getting a shot at the national title. It happened in 2011. Alabama was the team. And they won the title game. None of which would be forgotten in a scenario in which voters are comparing a one-loss Stanford to a one-loss Alabama.