11-17-2013, 02:53 PM
The challenge with supporting Stanford is that too many people actually understand the random walk, 50/50, nature of sports.
The USC fans really believe, and believed pre-Stanford game, that they will win the Pac-12 South and then go to the Rose Bowl. Even though ASU must lose to UCLA, USC must then beat Stanford and UCLA, and then USC must go to Eugene to beat the Ducks. Crazy? Sure, but they believe at some level.
Here is all that needs to happen for Stanford to go to a BCS bowl THIS year.
Path #1 - Oregon loses their rivalry game to a decent Oregon State team and then Stanford hosts and then wins the Pac-12 CG. That is a far more likely path to Roses than USC's crazy dream BTW.
Path #2 - Stanford beats the stuffing out of UCB and UND. This allows Stanford to get back up to BCS #8 or so. The right mix of teams falls into the top 14 slots of the BCS forcing one of the other BCS bowls to either want or need to pick Stanford. The biggest problem here is Northern Illinois/CSFU, but hey no reason to let that stuff trouble us. Keep the faith.
Stanford can also be a BCS force for several years because....sometimes schools stay relevant for quite a while if they can stay at the top long enough to recruit excellence to replace excellence. The insane faith that many schools have in their excellence is really built of the same sketchy foundation. Rational Stanford types can't help but see that the belief is not exactly solid, but it would be enough for most programs. Believe because it is possible.
It does bother me that Stanford plays UCLA and USC every year. Not only does Stanford get the honor of playing far and away the two biggest powers in the Pac-12 South, but Oregon and Washington will generally avoid playing both (USC did not play Oregon or Washington, for example). That's such a crazy schedule disadvantage that it is hard to believe Stanford and UCB wanted this insanity and it is that schedule that probable makes our walk more like 45/55 than 50/50. UCB needs the money game for their sorry budget issues, but now just three years into the Pac-12 Stanford's loyalty to tradition has already had a big negative impact. I would have been perfectly happy making our one annual trip to the LA market in January rather than November. >:(
The USC fans really believe, and believed pre-Stanford game, that they will win the Pac-12 South and then go to the Rose Bowl. Even though ASU must lose to UCLA, USC must then beat Stanford and UCLA, and then USC must go to Eugene to beat the Ducks. Crazy? Sure, but they believe at some level.
Here is all that needs to happen for Stanford to go to a BCS bowl THIS year.
Path #1 - Oregon loses their rivalry game to a decent Oregon State team and then Stanford hosts and then wins the Pac-12 CG. That is a far more likely path to Roses than USC's crazy dream BTW.
Path #2 - Stanford beats the stuffing out of UCB and UND. This allows Stanford to get back up to BCS #8 or so. The right mix of teams falls into the top 14 slots of the BCS forcing one of the other BCS bowls to either want or need to pick Stanford. The biggest problem here is Northern Illinois/CSFU, but hey no reason to let that stuff trouble us. Keep the faith.
Stanford can also be a BCS force for several years because....sometimes schools stay relevant for quite a while if they can stay at the top long enough to recruit excellence to replace excellence. The insane faith that many schools have in their excellence is really built of the same sketchy foundation. Rational Stanford types can't help but see that the belief is not exactly solid, but it would be enough for most programs. Believe because it is possible.
It does bother me that Stanford plays UCLA and USC every year. Not only does Stanford get the honor of playing far and away the two biggest powers in the Pac-12 South, but Oregon and Washington will generally avoid playing both (USC did not play Oregon or Washington, for example). That's such a crazy schedule disadvantage that it is hard to believe Stanford and UCB wanted this insanity and it is that schedule that probable makes our walk more like 45/55 than 50/50. UCB needs the money game for their sorry budget issues, but now just three years into the Pac-12 Stanford's loyalty to tradition has already had a big negative impact. I would have been perfectly happy making our one annual trip to the LA market in January rather than November. >:(