11-17-2013, 05:39 PM
Getting further off topic, your comments about how hard it is to go undefeated...
I looked at Alabama's schedule and basically concluded that it was three mini seasons with bye weeks built in. Chattanooga upcoming is one of the byes or course; scheduling a game like this basically gives Bama the opportunity to heal up, get experience for players who might not otherwise play, and take two weeks to scheme for Auburn. Shaw commented on the "cupcakes", others have pointed out how many difficult road games a Pac 12 team has to play with 9 conference games vs. the eight for SEC teams. In our case we play $C and UCLA year in and year out in addition to all the North schools. It is very hard for me to believe that any of the undefeateds could have managed it playing Stanford's (or almost any Pac 12 team's) schedule. Lots of computers love even lowly Utah because of how well it has done with an incredibly difficult schedule.
All of these factors (fewer league games, fewer away games, cupcake games) reduce opportunities to lose; speaking probabilistically it would take a very special year for a Pac 12 team to overcome all those opportunities to lose. Not so for some other teams, and hence you have the SEC in the championship game year end and year out. This seems obvious to me but is largely ignored by most, especially our Lord and Master ESPN. Hopefully the new format will iron some of this out; certainly a one loss team with a schedule like ours will have a better chance to get into the playoff and perhaps the Natty also. I'm cautiously optimistic until my cynicism kicks in; there will be alot of one loss teams...
I looked at Alabama's schedule and basically concluded that it was three mini seasons with bye weeks built in. Chattanooga upcoming is one of the byes or course; scheduling a game like this basically gives Bama the opportunity to heal up, get experience for players who might not otherwise play, and take two weeks to scheme for Auburn. Shaw commented on the "cupcakes", others have pointed out how many difficult road games a Pac 12 team has to play with 9 conference games vs. the eight for SEC teams. In our case we play $C and UCLA year in and year out in addition to all the North schools. It is very hard for me to believe that any of the undefeateds could have managed it playing Stanford's (or almost any Pac 12 team's) schedule. Lots of computers love even lowly Utah because of how well it has done with an incredibly difficult schedule.
All of these factors (fewer league games, fewer away games, cupcake games) reduce opportunities to lose; speaking probabilistically it would take a very special year for a Pac 12 team to overcome all those opportunities to lose. Not so for some other teams, and hence you have the SEC in the championship game year end and year out. This seems obvious to me but is largely ignored by most, especially our Lord and Master ESPN. Hopefully the new format will iron some of this out; certainly a one loss team with a schedule like ours will have a better chance to get into the playoff and perhaps the Natty also. I'm cautiously optimistic until my cynicism kicks in; there will be alot of one loss teams...