[pincemob]

I think that it's far too early to have any confidence in Oregon's decline. It's entirely possible that this will turn out to be a brief period of success after decades of mediocrity that they will sink back into, but I sort of doubt it.

I can't be sure, but I think mediocrity is statistically very likely.  Try to name programs to sustain success (through 3 coaches / 20 years) with the following traits:

- History that ranks in the lower half of their conference (i.e. national titles, bowl record, Voldemort winners, NFL HOFers)
- Not in a warm weather / destination location
- No local recruiting
- History of running afoul of the NCAA/law

If Helfrich is a prodigy who decides to stay long-term, then they could probably sustain some success.  Same if Kelly were to return (my Oregon friends are really hoping this is the case).  Short of maintaining a truly amazing coaching staff, they have few unique assets.  The facility/uniform edge they had is pretty much gone.  Nor will they (in my opinion) revert to the Bellotti recruiting strategy of taking a lot of bad actors who were fast. 

[pincemob]

I think that it's far too early to have any confidence in Oregon's decline. It's entirely possible that this will turn out to be a brief period of success after decades of mediocrity that they will sink back into, but I sort of doubt it.

I can't be sure, but I think mediocrity is statistically very likely.  Try to name programs to sustain success (through 3 coaches / 20 years) with the following traits:

- History that ranks in the lower half of their conference (i.e. national titles, bowl record, Voldemort winners, NFL HOFers)
- Not in a warm weather / destination location
- No local recruiting
- History of running afoul of the NCAA/law

If Helfrich is a prodigy who decides to stay long-term, then they could probably sustain some success.  Same if Kelly were to return (my Oregon friends are really hoping this is the case).  Short of maintaining a truly amazing coaching staff, they have few unique assets.  The facility/uniform edge they had is pretty much gone.  Nor will they (in my opinion) revert to the Bellotti recruiting strategy of taking a lot of bad actors who were fast.