[pincemob]

The question that matters is When will they take that downward turn? After all, it's pretty trivial to make a prediction without a future date on it and eventually be "proved right". I'm quite confident that sometime during our lives Oregon will be a bottom-dweller, at least for a few seasons. But why do you think it's going to be in the next few years? Do you even?

If Helfrich is no prodigy and Kelly does not come back, then I predict Oregon will be a 7-5 type program in 3 years.  In 5 years they will be a 5-7 program with the occasional 3-9 season

I think sustained success is having a few dominant years in every decade (10+ wins, BCS bowl), and showing that dominance across more than one coach.  A place like Virginia Tech has had sustained success but all with one coach.  Same for a Penn State or BYU.  I would put Texas in the "sustained success" category, along with Alabama, SC, Ohio State, Wisconsin.  Florida State might be entering that category now.  Washington was there, but has blown it with the Tyrone/Sark era.    Miami may be losing it also.  I think it is more likely Oregon goes the way of UW than of those sustaining schools.  Will they go all the way to 0-12?  Maybe.  I definitely never thought UW would get there.   

[pincemob]

The question that matters is When will they take that downward turn? After all, it's pretty trivial to make a prediction without a future date on it and eventually be "proved right". I'm quite confident that sometime during our lives Oregon will be a bottom-dweller, at least for a few seasons. But why do you think it's going to be in the next few years? Do you even?

If Helfrich is no prodigy and Kelly does not come back, then I predict Oregon will be a 7-5 type program in 3 years.  In 5 years they will be a 5-7 program with the occasional 3-9 season

I think sustained success is having a few dominant years in every decade (10+ wins, BCS bowl), and showing that dominance across more than one coach.  A place like Virginia Tech has had sustained success but all with one coach.  Same for a Penn State or BYU.  I would put Texas in the "sustained success" category, along with Alabama, SC, Ohio State, Wisconsin.  Florida State might be entering that category now.  Washington was there, but has blown it with the Tyrone/Sark era.    Miami may be losing it also.  I think it is more likely Oregon goes the way of UW than of those sustaining schools.  Will they go all the way to 0-12?  Maybe.  I definitely never thought UW would get there.