[stupac2]

If Helfrich is no prodigy and Kelly does not come back, then I predict Oregon will be a 7-5 type program in 3 years.  In 5 years they will be a 5-7 program with the occasional 3-9 season

Well, yes, if Oregon's coaching goes to hell in a handbasket then they'll regress significantly, we all know that. What I'm not sure about is if we can be confident at all that Helfrich is a bad coach. There are some signs that point that way, yes, but at the same time coaching transitions are rarely seamless (Shaw was fortunate to have Luck during his, I'm sure that covered some of the seams), and even coaches who turn out to be fantastic (like Kelly) tend to have poor first years. I think you're assigning a probability to Helfrich fizzling that isn't justified by this first year.

Though if they bomb their bowl game I may come around to your view.

[stupac2]

If Helfrich is no prodigy and Kelly does not come back, then I predict Oregon will be a 7-5 type program in 3 years.  In 5 years they will be a 5-7 program with the occasional 3-9 season

Well, yes, if Oregon's coaching goes to hell in a handbasket then they'll regress significantly, we all know that. What I'm not sure about is if we can be confident at all that Helfrich is a bad coach. There are some signs that point that way, yes, but at the same time coaching transitions are rarely seamless (Shaw was fortunate to have Luck during his, I'm sure that covered some of the seams), and even coaches who turn out to be fantastic (like Kelly) tend to have poor first years. I think you're assigning a probability to Helfrich fizzling that isn't justified by this first year.

Though if they bomb their bowl game I may come around to your view.