12-03-2013, 11:27 PM
Sorry I am not buying the 3-5 win stories. Oregon can have a really bad coach and they still have at least 4 games where they will be heavy favorites each year.
Oregon sells out their venue and has megadonor resources, so they can buy 3 OOC cupcakes. Also, unless things change a lot Oregon will be better than OSU. So that gets them 4 pretty solid wins each year. I would subscribe to the idea that they probably could win 50% of the other conference games over the long haul, given their crowd noise they probably can do better than 50/50. So that likely puts their over/under each year at 8 with a mediocre coach or 9 or more with a good, but not great coach.
In order for Oregon to really fall apart they would need UW to start stealing their recruits. That could happen, but I am not sure a team without a coach should be expected to outperform a team with a 10 win level coach and a Voldemort hopeful in 2014.
Oregon sells out their venue and has megadonor resources, so they can buy 3 OOC cupcakes. Also, unless things change a lot Oregon will be better than OSU. So that gets them 4 pretty solid wins each year. I would subscribe to the idea that they probably could win 50% of the other conference games over the long haul, given their crowd noise they probably can do better than 50/50. So that likely puts their over/under each year at 8 with a mediocre coach or 9 or more with a good, but not great coach.
In order for Oregon to really fall apart they would need UW to start stealing their recruits. That could happen, but I am not sure a team without a coach should be expected to outperform a team with a 10 win level coach and a Voldemort hopeful in 2014.