[needle]

I haven't followed this thread 100 percent, but The Upshot (a New York Times vertical, is how I'd describe it) weighs in using Census data and stats on foreign admits to claim it is harder than ever to get into the most selective schools.

In 2012, about 33 out of every 100,000 American 18- to 21-year-olds were attending Harvard, down from 45 per 100,000 in 1994. These changes in the share tell you how much harder, or easier, admission has become for American teenagers on average. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/upshot...?src=rechp

This analysis seems way oversimplified to me. Looking at how the universe of 18- to 21-year-olds who are high school graduates has changed over time would be more meaningful. And I would actually be interested if financial data on admits (admits by class) could be matched with the universe of 18- to 21-year-olds with high school degrees in that same economic class (general college-ready pop. by class).

But any analysis assuming *everyone* wants to go to a highly-selective university (I would reluctantly accept Harvard as a proxy for these schools) is not especially grounded in reality.

[needle]

I haven't followed this thread 100 percent, but The Upshot (a New York Times vertical, is how I'd describe it) weighs in using Census data and stats on foreign admits to claim it is harder than ever to get into the most selective schools.

In 2012, about 33 out of every 100,000 American 18- to 21-year-olds were attending Harvard, down from 45 per 100,000 in 1994. These changes in the share tell you how much harder, or easier, admission has become for American teenagers on average. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/upshot...?src=rechp

This analysis seems way oversimplified to me. Looking at how the universe of 18- to 21-year-olds who are high school graduates has changed over time would be more meaningful. And I would actually be interested if financial data on admits (admits by class) could be matched with the universe of 18- to 21-year-olds with high school degrees in that same economic class (general college-ready pop. by class).

But any analysis assuming *everyone* wants to go to a highly-selective university (I would reluctantly accept Harvard as a proxy for these schools) is not especially grounded in reality.