[Redrum]

I am sure most universities will fight to keep student-athletes from collecting compensation, but I believe Stanford university will survive even if it is forced to provide lifetime health care, a weekly paycheck and/or a percentage of the gate to the student-athlete-employees.

The question is, will Stanford survive as a Div. 3 equivalent program if pay-for-play is instituted. Our AD Muir is on record with that threat. 

But the question is:  Do you believe him?  Once you start tearing down the frame, how much of the building remains standing?  With reduced revenues,  does the athletically "pure" program remain at its same size in sports and number of athletes participating.  At the top end, it theoretically means that Stanford would leave the Pac12.  Walk away from that revenue stream, those rivalries and that  prestige?  I tend to think not, but at that point it might be just Revenge of the Academicians, refusing to accept that much more money flowing out to the Athletic Dept. (although, actually it would mostly just flow through the AD,  not from the rest of the university. 

I would say that some sort of "stipend" system for athletes is more likely on a national level, but it will be a temporary fallback position that won't stand long against the momentum for substantial compensation at some "Super division" level.  That point is where Stanford will step off the train.

My guess is Muir didn't sign on to be the leader who surrendered Div. 1 status, so he and many other athletic directors and NCAA big wigs will try to define themselves into some sort of compromise.  I reckon there are two interactive probability calculations: At NCAA level and individual school's level.  I give full-blown compensation and individual athlete promotional rights about a 50% chance of happening at the NCAA level.  At Stanford's internal policy level I see a > 50% chance of bailing off the escalator if the pay-for-play scheme advances.  Perhaps -- as many schools will-- trying to implement split-tiered competition domains, with the sports outside of football, basketball and baseball  dropping to the equivalent of Div. 3 status (no pay or very limited pay).  That split-tier approach might be the way the NCAA keeps the whole thing from flying apart and that organization losing its power and control to new, commercially-centric organizations ( Think Mega-BCS type org).  On any individual school's level, it will suck to be a "small sport" athlete.

[Redrum]

I am sure most universities will fight to keep student-athletes from collecting compensation, but I believe Stanford university will survive even if it is forced to provide lifetime health care, a weekly paycheck and/or a percentage of the gate to the student-athlete-employees.

The question is, will Stanford survive as a Div. 3 equivalent program if pay-for-play is instituted. Our AD Muir is on record with that threat. 

But the question is:  Do you believe him?  Once you start tearing down the frame, how much of the building remains standing?  With reduced revenues,  does the athletically "pure" program remain at its same size in sports and number of athletes participating.  At the top end, it theoretically means that Stanford would leave the Pac12.  Walk away from that revenue stream, those rivalries and that  prestige?  I tend to think not, but at that point it might be just Revenge of the Academicians, refusing to accept that much more money flowing out to the Athletic Dept. (although, actually it would mostly just flow through the AD,  not from the rest of the university. 

I would say that some sort of "stipend" system for athletes is more likely on a national level, but it will be a temporary fallback position that won't stand long against the momentum for substantial compensation at some "Super division" level.  That point is where Stanford will step off the train.

My guess is Muir didn't sign on to be the leader who surrendered Div. 1 status, so he and many other athletic directors and NCAA big wigs will try to define themselves into some sort of compromise.  I reckon there are two interactive probability calculations: At NCAA level and individual school's level.  I give full-blown compensation and individual athlete promotional rights about a 50% chance of happening at the NCAA level.  At Stanford's internal policy level I see a > 50% chance of bailing off the escalator if the pay-for-play scheme advances.  Perhaps -- as many schools will-- trying to implement split-tiered competition domains, with the sports outside of football, basketball and baseball  dropping to the equivalent of Div. 3 status (no pay or very limited pay).  That split-tier approach might be the way the NCAA keeps the whole thing from flying apart and that organization losing its power and control to new, commercially-centric organizations ( Think Mega-BCS type org).  On any individual school's level, it will suck to be a "small sport" athlete.