[Stymie]

[quote author=Stymie link=topic=9957.msg89269#msg89269 date=1399749568]
I rely on tape (much of which of Hogan's long game I have seen), but as one who aced statistics at both Stanford and Harvard Business School I solidly believe the old chestnut of "lies, damned lies and statistics." :)

Better statistics than faulty memory. I mean, here's every single ESPN highlight of a Hogan longball from 2013:
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9649332
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9649995
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9740904
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9741147
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9741283
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9815483
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9850031
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9887303
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9943420
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10098537
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10098652
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10099977

To me I see maybe one longball that even comes close to the description of your memory -- Hogan scrambling around and heaving up a ball to a receiver who comes back and does all the work. (If you'd bothered to consult the statistics rather than memory -- which has a way of forgetting things! -- you'd know Hogan ran and scrambled much less this year than last.) Of course, some of these are perfect strikes, some of them just good balls; and a couple the receiver is doing good work. Fine, whatever; basically every quarterback has receivers helping him out in this day and age. That's where we turn to statistics, where the knowledge that Hogan completed the third-highest percentage on deep passes combines with our view of the tape to say, "Well, he's a pretty good quarterback at throwing deep." Basically every QB sometimes misses guys a bit. It seems like a stretch to say that Hogan is somehow completing the most passes of everyone...but those completions are worse than others.

But I understand you have a different evaluative measure of "using your memory to summon nonexistent plays, and comparing that to your perhaps equally faulty memory of other players."
[/quote]

Thanks for that.  Half of the 12 clips are OK, but it's not a great sample size and by your definition it is the complete ESPN Hogan long throw highlight reel.  Surely not up to Johnny Football standards....  I hope that you and Terry et. al are right and I am wrong, but we will see.

[Stymie]

[quote author=Stymie link=topic=9957.msg89269#msg89269 date=1399749568]
I rely on tape (much of which of Hogan's long game I have seen), but as one who aced statistics at both Stanford and Harvard Business School I solidly believe the old chestnut of "lies, damned lies and statistics." :)

Better statistics than faulty memory. I mean, here's every single ESPN highlight of a Hogan longball from 2013:
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9649332
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9649995
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9740904
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9741147
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9741283
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9815483
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9850031
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9887303
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:9943420
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10098537
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10098652
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10099977

To me I see maybe one longball that even comes close to the description of your memory -- Hogan scrambling around and heaving up a ball to a receiver who comes back and does all the work. (If you'd bothered to consult the statistics rather than memory -- which has a way of forgetting things! -- you'd know Hogan ran and scrambled much less this year than last.) Of course, some of these are perfect strikes, some of them just good balls; and a couple the receiver is doing good work. Fine, whatever; basically every quarterback has receivers helping him out in this day and age. That's where we turn to statistics, where the knowledge that Hogan completed the third-highest percentage on deep passes combines with our view of the tape to say, "Well, he's a pretty good quarterback at throwing deep." Basically every QB sometimes misses guys a bit. It seems like a stretch to say that Hogan is somehow completing the most passes of everyone...but those completions are worse than others.

But I understand you have a different evaluative measure of "using your memory to summon nonexistent plays, and comparing that to your perhaps equally faulty memory of other players."
[/quote]

Thanks for that.  Half of the 12 clips are OK, but it's not a great sample size and by your definition it is the complete ESPN Hogan long throw highlight reel.  Surely not up to Johnny Football standards....  I hope that you and Terry et. al are right and I am wrong, but we will see.