[CTcard]

Thanks for that.  Half of the 12 clips are OK, but it's not a great sample size and by your definition it is the complete ESPN Hogan long throw highlight reel.  Surely not up to Johnny Football standards....  I hope that you and Terry et. al are right and I am wrong, but we will see.

I know I shouldn't prolong this, but somehow I cannot help noting that there is no way that "we will [future tense] see" how well Hogan threw the long ball in 2013.

I also don't think I can add better evidence than that presented above, but just a comment on the small sample size. Apparently ESPN has 12 highlight videos of Hogan completing passes of 30+ yards. WIM showed at least one other in his earlier post that was not an ESPN highlight (vs UW). To check how big the numbers actually are IS a question of statistics. Hogan threw 28 completions of 30+ yards in 2013. That was tied for 5th in the country. [He was also tied for 5th for number of 40+ yard passes. Behind Manziel in # of 30+ yds passes, ahead in # of 40+ yd passes.]

It is my opinion that these numbers should be considered along with percentage of throws at these distances - though neither alone. Obviously, if you throw more passes, your total number of long completions will go up. However, if you don't throw many passes, you probably are running an offense looking for a big strike when throwing. So, the percentage of attempts or completions over 30+ yards is not readily available as far as I can tell. I can calculate it on my own for a few.

I cannot find anybody with a higher than Hogan for percentage of attempts ending up as completions of 30+ yards, though I could have missed somebody.

Hogan completed 28 30+ yards passes, 9.5% of his attempts
The others in the top 10 for most 30+ yard completions were:
Petty (Baylor) 38 long completions, 9.4% of attempts
Manziel (Texas AM) 33 long completions, 7.7% of attempts
Morris (Miami) 32 long completions, 9.3% of attempts
Fales (SJS) 31 long completions, 6.4% of attempts
Boyd (Clemson) 28 long completions, 6.7% of attempts
Bortles (UCF) 26 long completions, 6.8% of atttempts
Carr (Fresno) 26 long completions, 3.9% of atttempts
Mannion (OSU) 26 long completions, 4.3% of atttempts
Wenning (Ball St) 26 long completions, 5.2% of atttempts

[These numbers all come from http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/nati...ort03.html and http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/nati...ort06.html]

I don't think there is any meaningful way to combine this stuff to make an overall ranked list. It does seem fair to say that the Stanford offense, with Hogan as its quarterback, was among the best teams in the NCAA FBS in 2013 at hitting long passes.

[CTcard]

Thanks for that.  Half of the 12 clips are OK, but it's not a great sample size and by your definition it is the complete ESPN Hogan long throw highlight reel.  Surely not up to Johnny Football standards....  I hope that you and Terry et. al are right and I am wrong, but we will see.

I know I shouldn't prolong this, but somehow I cannot help noting that there is no way that "we will [future tense] see" how well Hogan threw the long ball in 2013.

I also don't think I can add better evidence than that presented above, but just a comment on the small sample size. Apparently ESPN has 12 highlight videos of Hogan completing passes of 30+ yards. WIM showed at least one other in his earlier post that was not an ESPN highlight (vs UW). To check how big the numbers actually are IS a question of statistics. Hogan threw 28 completions of 30+ yards in 2013. That was tied for 5th in the country. [He was also tied for 5th for number of 40+ yard passes. Behind Manziel in # of 30+ yds passes, ahead in # of 40+ yd passes.]

It is my opinion that these numbers should be considered along with percentage of throws at these distances - though neither alone. Obviously, if you throw more passes, your total number of long completions will go up. However, if you don't throw many passes, you probably are running an offense looking for a big strike when throwing. So, the percentage of attempts or completions over 30+ yards is not readily available as far as I can tell. I can calculate it on my own for a few.

I cannot find anybody with a higher than Hogan for percentage of attempts ending up as completions of 30+ yards, though I could have missed somebody.

Hogan completed 28 30+ yards passes, 9.5% of his attempts
The others in the top 10 for most 30+ yard completions were:
Petty (Baylor) 38 long completions, 9.4% of attempts
Manziel (Texas AM) 33 long completions, 7.7% of attempts
Morris (Miami) 32 long completions, 9.3% of attempts
Fales (SJS) 31 long completions, 6.4% of attempts
Boyd (Clemson) 28 long completions, 6.7% of attempts
Bortles (UCF) 26 long completions, 6.8% of atttempts
Carr (Fresno) 26 long completions, 3.9% of atttempts
Mannion (OSU) 26 long completions, 4.3% of atttempts
Wenning (Ball St) 26 long completions, 5.2% of atttempts

[These numbers all come from http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/nati...ort03.html and http://www.cfbstats.com/2013/leader/nati...ort06.html]

I don't think there is any meaningful way to combine this stuff to make an overall ranked list. It does seem fair to say that the Stanford offense, with Hogan as its quarterback, was among the best teams in the NCAA FBS in 2013 at hitting long passes.