[washingtonismoney]

[1.]We pass more than we did last year, and while we have a better completion percentage, our yards per attempt are down, likely because we aren't beating teams deep, likely because they are no longer putting eight in the box to stop the run.
[2.]We have been having much more trouble holding onto the ball. Seven fumbles in four games, versus nine in thirteen last year!

1. Think this is deceptive -- skewed by Crower's relief effort. Hogan's YPA (8.9 vs. 8.83) is barely different as a topline. (I do think passing problems are hidden by, as we've alluded to, Hogan's scrambles, which are effectively hidden incompletions. For whatever reason Hogan hasn't been terribly effective scrambling. Is that the offensive line? For whatever reason, is Hogan bailing out rather than completing his progressions? An increased emphasis on zone, potentially stemming from less eight-in-the-box stuffing? Any experts' thoughts here?)

2. Also think this is deceptive. Stanford's been victimized by bad turnovers luck this year. 0 true turnovers against SC and UW (turnovers-on-downs are a *bit* less meaningful though certainly still good -- the difference, say, between a single and a walk.) UW recovered four of five fumbles yesterday; Army recovered two of three; SC recovered three of five; and against Davis Stanford split the recovered fumbles evenly. That means Stanford's only recovered 4 of 15 fumbles. Over the long run, teams recover half of fumbles; there's no such thing as skill in fumble recoveries over the long term. (There's definitely skill in causing and, I presume, preventing fumbles, which goes to your point. But not quite the same thing.)

At any rate, this suggests Stanford's past results have a substantial drag. If it's even -- or reverses itself and turns to turnovers luck -- over the rest of the year, Stanford should perform much better.

[washingtonismoney]

[1.]We pass more than we did last year, and while we have a better completion percentage, our yards per attempt are down, likely because we aren't beating teams deep, likely because they are no longer putting eight in the box to stop the run.
[2.]We have been having much more trouble holding onto the ball. Seven fumbles in four games, versus nine in thirteen last year!

1. Think this is deceptive -- skewed by Crower's relief effort. Hogan's YPA (8.9 vs. 8.83) is barely different as a topline. (I do think passing problems are hidden by, as we've alluded to, Hogan's scrambles, which are effectively hidden incompletions. For whatever reason Hogan hasn't been terribly effective scrambling. Is that the offensive line? For whatever reason, is Hogan bailing out rather than completing his progressions? An increased emphasis on zone, potentially stemming from less eight-in-the-box stuffing? Any experts' thoughts here?)

2. Also think this is deceptive. Stanford's been victimized by bad turnovers luck this year. 0 true turnovers against SC and UW (turnovers-on-downs are a *bit* less meaningful though certainly still good -- the difference, say, between a single and a walk.) UW recovered four of five fumbles yesterday; Army recovered two of three; SC recovered three of five; and against Davis Stanford split the recovered fumbles evenly. That means Stanford's only recovered 4 of 15 fumbles. Over the long run, teams recover half of fumbles; there's no such thing as skill in fumble recoveries over the long term. (There's definitely skill in causing and, I presume, preventing fumbles, which goes to your point. But not quite the same thing.)

At any rate, this suggests Stanford's past results have a substantial drag. If it's even -- or reverses itself and turns to turnovers luck -- over the rest of the year, Stanford should perform much better.