[BostonCard]

I think we've played enough conference games that it is reasonable to put up per drive stats for conference only games, which eliminates inflation for some teams who played patsies in the non-conference season.  Stanford comes out looking really good here, of course, because it eliminates our Northwestern game, and also eliminates a lot of big time scoring games for marginal teams (I'm thinking of you, Arizona).

Here are the offensive stats:

Offense	Start	Plays/10	Yds/Play	yds/drive	% yds	eTO%	Pts/Dr
Stanford	66.9	65.0	7.4	48.4	72.2%	5.0%	4.58
Washington St.	67.3	65.2	6.6	43.1	64.1%	16.7%	3.40
UCLA	70.6	54.9	6.8	37.3	52.9%	7.7%	3.15
Arizona	72.8	62.9	6.8	42.5	58.4%	11.9%	2.95
USC	75.8	60.6	6.3	37.9	50.0%	13.9%	2.58
Utah	65.6	51.1	5.7	29.0	44.3%	10.9%	2.50
Oregon	67.0	53.9	6.3	34.0	50.8%	12.2%	2.45
Cal	68.7	58.7	5.9	34.5	50.2%	37.8%	2.04
Arizona St.	69.1	55.0	5.2	28.5	41.2%	15.2%	1.83
Colorado	73.3	56.5	4.9	27.7	37.8%	12.5%	1.71
Oregon St.	75.4	59.0	5.0	29.4	39.0%	16.1%	1.52
Washington	70.8	49.8	5.2	25.8	36.4%	19.0%	1.45
Average	70.0	57.6	6.0	34.8	49.7%	15.0%	2.51

So, we clearly have the most dominant offense in the conference, and that is significant since we've played one of the better defenses in the conference (though per-drive stats don't look as good for UW as some other stats do (see a follow-up post).  Still, 4.58 points per drive is pretty remarkable, and is a full point per drive better than second place, and more than twice as much as Cal's vaunted offense puts up.  It helps us that we have the lowest effective turnover percentage (that includes failed fourth down conversions as turnovers), the best starting field position, the most yards per play, and the most yards per drive.
We are playing the second best per-drive offense this week, for what it is worth.
Not surprisingly, we just played the worst offense.
Cal's vaunted offense is actually fairly midling, and is in the bottom half of the conference.  They are getting killed by effective turnovers, both the kind they committed against Utah and UCLA, and failed fourth down conversions (they are 9/17 on fourth down, giving them 8 additional turnovers).
"Cal's vaunted offense" is actually below average.
USC doesn't look as scary; it starts with absolutely dreadful field position (almost 10 yards worse than we start), and it appears that its yards per play were inflated in the non-conference season, because they are only a little better than average.
Utah has fallen back a bit; I'm sure in part due to its poor performance against USC.  It has an average offense, but as you will see, a good defense (tops in the Pac-12).

BC

[Defense and net stats to follow]

[BostonCard]

I think we've played enough conference games that it is reasonable to put up per drive stats for conference only games, which eliminates inflation for some teams who played patsies in the non-conference season.  Stanford comes out looking really good here, of course, because it eliminates our Northwestern game, and also eliminates a lot of big time scoring games for marginal teams (I'm thinking of you, Arizona).

Here are the offensive stats:

Offense	Start	Plays/10	Yds/Play	yds/drive	% yds	eTO%	Pts/Dr
Stanford	66.9	65.0	7.4	48.4	72.2%	5.0%	4.58
Washington St.	67.3	65.2	6.6	43.1	64.1%	16.7%	3.40
UCLA	70.6	54.9	6.8	37.3	52.9%	7.7%	3.15
Arizona	72.8	62.9	6.8	42.5	58.4%	11.9%	2.95
USC	75.8	60.6	6.3	37.9	50.0%	13.9%	2.58
Utah	65.6	51.1	5.7	29.0	44.3%	10.9%	2.50
Oregon	67.0	53.9	6.3	34.0	50.8%	12.2%	2.45
Cal	68.7	58.7	5.9	34.5	50.2%	37.8%	2.04
Arizona St.	69.1	55.0	5.2	28.5	41.2%	15.2%	1.83
Colorado	73.3	56.5	4.9	27.7	37.8%	12.5%	1.71
Oregon St.	75.4	59.0	5.0	29.4	39.0%	16.1%	1.52
Washington	70.8	49.8	5.2	25.8	36.4%	19.0%	1.45
Average	70.0	57.6	6.0	34.8	49.7%	15.0%	2.51

So, we clearly have the most dominant offense in the conference, and that is significant since we've played one of the better defenses in the conference (though per-drive stats don't look as good for UW as some other stats do (see a follow-up post).  Still, 4.58 points per drive is pretty remarkable, and is a full point per drive better than second place, and more than twice as much as Cal's vaunted offense puts up.  It helps us that we have the lowest effective turnover percentage (that includes failed fourth down conversions as turnovers), the best starting field position, the most yards per play, and the most yards per drive.
We are playing the second best per-drive offense this week, for what it is worth.
Not surprisingly, we just played the worst offense.
Cal's vaunted offense is actually fairly midling, and is in the bottom half of the conference.  They are getting killed by effective turnovers, both the kind they committed against Utah and UCLA, and failed fourth down conversions (they are 9/17 on fourth down, giving them 8 additional turnovers).
"Cal's vaunted offense" is actually below average.
USC doesn't look as scary; it starts with absolutely dreadful field position (almost 10 yards worse than we start), and it appears that its yards per play were inflated in the non-conference season, because they are only a little better than average.
Utah has fallen back a bit; I'm sure in part due to its poor performance against USC.  It has an average offense, but as you will see, a good defense (tops in the Pac-12).

BC

[Defense and net stats to follow]

[BostonCard]

Here are the defensive stats:

Defense	Starting field pos	Plays/10 drives	Yds/Play	yds/drive	% yds gained	3 and out %	eTO%	Pts/Dr
Utah	71.9	51.6	4.9	25.3	35.2%	22.2%	22.2%	1.67
Arizona St.	72.1	47.3	5.7	26.8	37.2%	29.5%	11.4%	1.86
Stanford	76.2	54.1	5.9	31.8	41.7%	37.8%	8.1%	2.03
USC	69.1	60.0	5.4	32.5	47.1%	16.2%	16.2%	2.03
Washington	71.5	64.4	5.7	36.9	51.6%	17.8%	15.6%	2.24
Cal	67.7	57.9	5.8	33.8	50.0%	16.7%	27.1%	2.40
Washington St.	70.9	56.3	6.6	37.1	52.4%	22.0%	22.0%	2.54
UCLA	68.4	55.8	5.6	31.5	46.0%	19.4%	13.9%	2.58
Oregon	71.1	58.8	6.0	35.3	49.7%	18.4%	14.3%	2.65
Colorado	67.0	60.2	6.5	39.3	58.7%	6.1%	14.3%	2.71
Arizona	69.5	63.0	6.6	41.4	59.5%	14.9%	6.4%	3.53
Oregon St.	64.3	60.9	7.5	45.8	71.2%	14.7%	5.9%	4.06
Average	70.0	57.6	6.0	34.8	49.7%	19.3%	15.0%	2.51

Here are my observations:
Utah remains the best defensive team in the conference in terms of points per drive given up, yards per play (almost a half yard per play better than USC), and yards per drive.  They also have the second highest effective turnover percent (22.2%) and third best 3-and-out percent, which means that 4/9 times an opponent's drive ends in a turnover or three and out.
Stanford's defense has been undersold.  Sure, we benefitted from playing the two worst offensive teams, but we've also played teams ranked 3, 4, and 5 (and we will face #2 this week) in points per drive.  Really, 2 points per drive is pretty good, especially when you are scoring more than twice that.  We have the highest 3-and-out rate (37.8% of opponents drives).  It also helps that our opponents have the worst starting field position in the Pac-12, by a fair margin.  Yards per play given up is merely average and turnover percentage is in the bottom three of the conference (only Arizona and OSU are worse).
Washington's defense might have been overrated (or may have suffered by playing us).  Nothing really stands out; they seem like a fairly average defense.
On the other hand, our upcoming opponent, WSU, doesn't have as bad a defense as advertised (except the best offense they've played is Arizona, who scored fairly easily).  They have a pretty good turnover percentage, and an above average yards per play.
Cal's defense is between the two.
BC

[BostonCard]

Here are the defensive stats:

Defense	Starting field pos	Plays/10 drives	Yds/Play	yds/drive	% yds gained	3 and out %	eTO%	Pts/Dr
Utah	71.9	51.6	4.9	25.3	35.2%	22.2%	22.2%	1.67
Arizona St.	72.1	47.3	5.7	26.8	37.2%	29.5%	11.4%	1.86
Stanford	76.2	54.1	5.9	31.8	41.7%	37.8%	8.1%	2.03
USC	69.1	60.0	5.4	32.5	47.1%	16.2%	16.2%	2.03
Washington	71.5	64.4	5.7	36.9	51.6%	17.8%	15.6%	2.24
Cal	67.7	57.9	5.8	33.8	50.0%	16.7%	27.1%	2.40
Washington St.	70.9	56.3	6.6	37.1	52.4%	22.0%	22.0%	2.54
UCLA	68.4	55.8	5.6	31.5	46.0%	19.4%	13.9%	2.58
Oregon	71.1	58.8	6.0	35.3	49.7%	18.4%	14.3%	2.65
Colorado	67.0	60.2	6.5	39.3	58.7%	6.1%	14.3%	2.71
Arizona	69.5	63.0	6.6	41.4	59.5%	14.9%	6.4%	3.53
Oregon St.	64.3	60.9	7.5	45.8	71.2%	14.7%	5.9%	4.06
Average	70.0	57.6	6.0	34.8	49.7%	19.3%	15.0%	2.51

Here are my observations:
Utah remains the best defensive team in the conference in terms of points per drive given up, yards per play (almost a half yard per play better than USC), and yards per drive.  They also have the second highest effective turnover percent (22.2%) and third best 3-and-out percent, which means that 4/9 times an opponent's drive ends in a turnover or three and out.
Stanford's defense has been undersold.  Sure, we benefitted from playing the two worst offensive teams, but we've also played teams ranked 3, 4, and 5 (and we will face #2 this week) in points per drive.  Really, 2 points per drive is pretty good, especially when you are scoring more than twice that.  We have the highest 3-and-out rate (37.8% of opponents drives).  It also helps that our opponents have the worst starting field position in the Pac-12, by a fair margin.  Yards per play given up is merely average and turnover percentage is in the bottom three of the conference (only Arizona and OSU are worse).
Washington's defense might have been overrated (or may have suffered by playing us).  Nothing really stands out; they seem like a fairly average defense.
On the other hand, our upcoming opponent, WSU, doesn't have as bad a defense as advertised (except the best offense they've played is Arizona, who scored fairly easily).  They have a pretty good turnover percentage, and an above average yards per play.
Cal's defense is between the two.
BC

[cardcoug]

Thanks BC. On the offensive side, our ypp would be good for #3 in the country, behind Baylor (off the charts at 8.4) and TCU. Defensively, it seems the 3 and out % has got to be one of the most important stats for us, given our TOP emphasis.

[cardcoug]

Thanks BC. On the offensive side, our ypp would be good for #3 in the country, behind Baylor (off the charts at 8.4) and TCU. Defensively, it seems the 3 and out % has got to be one of the most important stats for us, given our TOP emphasis.

[BostonCard]

Here are the net stats

Net	Start	Plays/10	Yds/Play	yds/drive	yards %	TO %	eTO%	Pts/Dr
Stanford	-9.3	10.9	1.6	16.6	30.5%	-0.4%	-3.1%	2.55
Washington St.	-3.6	8.9	0.0	6.0	11.7%	2.7%	-5.3%	0.86
Utah	-6.3	-0.5	0.8	3.7	9.1%	-6.9%	-11.4%	0.83
UCLA	2.1	-1.0	1.2	5.8	6.8%	-6.0%	-6.2%	0.57
USC	6.7	0.6	0.8	5.3	2.9%	-5.1%	-2.3%	0.56
Arizona St.	-3.0	7.7	-0.5	1.7	4.0%	4.0%	3.9%	-0.04
Oregon	-4.1	-4.9	0.3	-1.3	1.1%	-4.1%	-2.0%	-0.20
Cal	1.0	0.7	0.0	0.7	0.2%	-2.8%	10.7%	-0.35
Arizona	3.3	-0.1	0.2	1.1	-1.1%	5.3%	5.5%	-0.58
Washington	-0.8	-14.7	-0.5	-11.1	-15.2%	5.6%	3.5%	-0.79
Colorado	6.3	-3.7	-1.6	-11.6	-20.9%	4.3%	-1.8%	-1.01
Oregon St.	11.1	-1.9	-2.5	-16.4	-32.2%	3.8%	10.2%	-2.54

When you have the best per-drive offense and an above average per drive defense, you wind up with dominant net stats.  We  score over 2.5 points per drive more than we allow, which is pretty impressive.  We start almost 10 yards closer to the end zone than our opponents, on average (next best is 6.3), we run over a play more per drive than our opponents, gain 1.6 yards per play more than our opponents, almost 17 yards per drive more than we give up (next best is 6), capture 30% more available yards than we give up.  The only place where we are relatively weak is in turnover percentage, and we still force more than we give up (especially when fourth down conversions are taken into account).  Without Cardinal colored glasses, we are a frankly scary team.
That being said, our upcoming opponent is second best in conference.  To some extent, that is because the data are not adjusted for opponent quality; WSU has faced 4 out of the 6 worst teams in conference, and the best team they've faced is #7 Oregon.  The quality of their opponent is about to jump.  Stanford has played some lousy teams too (3 out of the bottom 4), but UCLA and USC are above average, and we both of them soundly.
Despite the game at USC, Utah is still a good football team.
Cal is a middling team.
After the WSU game, our three remaining games will be against below-average teams, and then, hopefully, the Pac-12 championship.

BC

[BostonCard]

Here are the net stats

Net	Start	Plays/10	Yds/Play	yds/drive	yards %	TO %	eTO%	Pts/Dr
Stanford	-9.3	10.9	1.6	16.6	30.5%	-0.4%	-3.1%	2.55
Washington St.	-3.6	8.9	0.0	6.0	11.7%	2.7%	-5.3%	0.86
Utah	-6.3	-0.5	0.8	3.7	9.1%	-6.9%	-11.4%	0.83
UCLA	2.1	-1.0	1.2	5.8	6.8%	-6.0%	-6.2%	0.57
USC	6.7	0.6	0.8	5.3	2.9%	-5.1%	-2.3%	0.56
Arizona St.	-3.0	7.7	-0.5	1.7	4.0%	4.0%	3.9%	-0.04
Oregon	-4.1	-4.9	0.3	-1.3	1.1%	-4.1%	-2.0%	-0.20
Cal	1.0	0.7	0.0	0.7	0.2%	-2.8%	10.7%	-0.35
Arizona	3.3	-0.1	0.2	1.1	-1.1%	5.3%	5.5%	-0.58
Washington	-0.8	-14.7	-0.5	-11.1	-15.2%	5.6%	3.5%	-0.79
Colorado	6.3	-3.7	-1.6	-11.6	-20.9%	4.3%	-1.8%	-1.01
Oregon St.	11.1	-1.9	-2.5	-16.4	-32.2%	3.8%	10.2%	-2.54

When you have the best per-drive offense and an above average per drive defense, you wind up with dominant net stats.  We  score over 2.5 points per drive more than we allow, which is pretty impressive.  We start almost 10 yards closer to the end zone than our opponents, on average (next best is 6.3), we run over a play more per drive than our opponents, gain 1.6 yards per play more than our opponents, almost 17 yards per drive more than we give up (next best is 6), capture 30% more available yards than we give up.  The only place where we are relatively weak is in turnover percentage, and we still force more than we give up (especially when fourth down conversions are taken into account).  Without Cardinal colored glasses, we are a frankly scary team.
That being said, our upcoming opponent is second best in conference.  To some extent, that is because the data are not adjusted for opponent quality; WSU has faced 4 out of the 6 worst teams in conference, and the best team they've faced is #7 Oregon.  The quality of their opponent is about to jump.  Stanford has played some lousy teams too (3 out of the bottom 4), but UCLA and USC are above average, and we both of them soundly.
Despite the game at USC, Utah is still a good football team.
Cal is a middling team.
After the WSU game, our three remaining games will be against below-average teams, and then, hopefully, the Pac-12 championship.

BC

[BostonCard]

Thanks BC. On the offensive side, our ypp would be good for #3 in the country, behind Baylor (off the charts at 8.4) and TCU. Defensively, it seems the 3 and out % has got to be one of the most important stats for us, given our TOP emphasis.

Keep in mind that the data is only for conference games, and excludes garbage time.  Since we don't run many drives to begin with and three of the games featured extensive garbage time (OSU, Arizona, UCLA), there may be some small samples here.

BC

[BostonCard]

Thanks BC. On the offensive side, our ypp would be good for #3 in the country, behind Baylor (off the charts at 8.4) and TCU. Defensively, it seems the 3 and out % has got to be one of the most important stats for us, given our TOP emphasis.

Keep in mind that the data is only for conference games, and excludes garbage time.  Since we don't run many drives to begin with and three of the games featured extensive garbage time (OSU, Arizona, UCLA), there may be some small samples here.

BC

[stupac2]

Would it be easy to do this for a handful of interesting non-Pac teams? Maybe the AP top 10? I'm not sure where you're getting the non-garbage-time data, otherwise I'd do it myself (although tomorrow, no excel at home and google sheets is annoying).

[stupac2]

Would it be easy to do this for a handful of interesting non-Pac teams? Maybe the AP top 10? I'm not sure where you're getting the non-garbage-time data, otherwise I'd do it myself (although tomorrow, no excel at home and google sheets is annoying).

[BostonCard]

Would it be easy to do this for a handful of interesting non-Pac teams? Maybe the AP top 10? I'm not sure where you're getting the non-garbage-time data, otherwise I'd do it myself (although tomorrow, no excel at home and google sheets is annoying).

Yeah, it's possible... the raw data is here:

http://fbsdrivestats.com/categorized-rankings-2015/

(this is for all FBS teams, and includes all games, not just conference).  Stanford is 8th in the country (and fourth among Power 5 schools) in points per drive.  On defense, Stanford is 29th in the country, 21st among Power 5 schools (Michigan is tops, Northwestern is 18th, Notre Dame is 42nd) in points per drive.  In net points per drive, Stanford is sixth, fourth among Power5 schools.  Of interest, only schools in the Big12 are ahead of Stanford (Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech).

BC

[BostonCard]

Would it be easy to do this for a handful of interesting non-Pac teams? Maybe the AP top 10? I'm not sure where you're getting the non-garbage-time data, otherwise I'd do it myself (although tomorrow, no excel at home and google sheets is annoying).

Yeah, it's possible... the raw data is here:

http://fbsdrivestats.com/categorized-rankings-2015/

(this is for all FBS teams, and includes all games, not just conference).  Stanford is 8th in the country (and fourth among Power 5 schools) in points per drive.  On defense, Stanford is 29th in the country, 21st among Power 5 schools (Michigan is tops, Northwestern is 18th, Notre Dame is 42nd) in points per drive.  In net points per drive, Stanford is sixth, fourth among Power5 schools.  Of interest, only schools in the Big12 are ahead of Stanford (Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech).

BC

[stupac2]

Texas Tech is in the top? Is this for all opponents? They've been clowned a few times in conference, though they did play TCU pretty close.

[stupac2]

Texas Tech is in the top? Is this for all opponents? They've been clowned a few times in conference, though they did play TCU pretty close.

[BostonCard]

Sorry, I put the wrong numbers up for net points.  Baylor is top, Stanford is fourth (and second among Power5 conferences).  Texas Tech is fifth (and third among Power5 Conference teams) in offense, but not so good in defense (121st).

BC

[BostonCard]

Sorry, I put the wrong numbers up for net points.  Baylor is top, Stanford is fourth (and second among Power5 conferences).  Texas Tech is fifth (and third among Power5 Conference teams) in offense, but not so good in defense (121st).

BC

[martyup]

Very impressive analysis BC.  I thought we were pretty good, but I'm fairly biased.  ::)

[martyup]

Very impressive analysis BC.  I thought we were pretty good, but I'm fairly biased.  ::)

[PrinceLightfoot]

This is great, BC! Thanks for writing it up and sharing.

[PrinceLightfoot]

This is great, BC! Thanks for writing it up and sharing.