[BostonCard]

I think this discussion reinforces why it's so hard to definitively call playcalls or even strategy broadly 'bad' or 'good.' Like the Falcons could've burned more clock -- both shortening the game and resting the defense. But would that have stunted offensive effectiveness? Perhaps!

I cannot believe I am in the position of defending Teejers, but we are talking about degrees here, and at some point the circumstances so dictate a particular call that not doing it, absent a compelling reason, makes no sense.  In this particular case, there were some arguments for throwing the football, but they were weak relative to the arguments for running the ball under those game circumstances.

The problem is that in almost all circumstances, including many that Teejers labels "AYFKM", the benefits of one strategy over another are probably small, and more likely overwhelmed by things that we can't easily take into account (like defensive alignment).  Cases like last night's are very few and far between.

BC

[BostonCard]

I think this discussion reinforces why it's so hard to definitively call playcalls or even strategy broadly 'bad' or 'good.' Like the Falcons could've burned more clock -- both shortening the game and resting the defense. But would that have stunted offensive effectiveness? Perhaps!

I cannot believe I am in the position of defending Teejers, but we are talking about degrees here, and at some point the circumstances so dictate a particular call that not doing it, absent a compelling reason, makes no sense.  In this particular case, there were some arguments for throwing the football, but they were weak relative to the arguments for running the ball under those game circumstances.

The problem is that in almost all circumstances, including many that Teejers labels "AYFKM", the benefits of one strategy over another are probably small, and more likely overwhelmed by things that we can't easily take into account (like defensive alignment).  Cases like last night's are very few and far between.

BC

[Ratmandoo]

[i][b]"And speaking of Brady, it's hard to argue against Greatest of All Time (I'd have given him the nod before yesterday); however, I think it's also fair to characterize him as the GLOAT:  Greatest, Luckiest of All Time.  Think what his resume would look like if:  (a) bogus tuck rule was called correctly against Raiders, (b) Petey chose to run Beast Mode from the 1 yard line instead of passing (which resulted in a pick), and © Atlanta ran the ball 3 times and tried a FG.

I'd say Brady has 2 Super Bowl Ws and 4 (straight) Super Bowl Ls.  He still might be the best, but that resume looks and feels a lot different without the "head-scratching luck" he has enjoyed.

That's true but the two losses that Brady had in the Super Bowl to the Giants were the result of two miracle plays (The Tyree helmet catch and the sideline bomb to Manningham). In both of those games, Brady left the field late in the game with the lead that he handed for the defense to hold. In terms of luck, a really unlucky Brady could be 1-5 in Super Bowls (the Tuck rule keeping him out of one SuperBowl, losing the two games Terry cites and a couple of plays that could have changed the outcome in the Patriot's 3 point win over the Panthers. Their only clear win was over the Eagles). And if he's really lucky, Brady could be 7-0 in Super Bowls. It's amazing how much a legacy can change with a couple bounces of an oblong ball (or some great, bad, awesome or AYFKM playcalls....but I'm not going to get into that argument). It also helps Brady to have Belichick, the best football coach of the modern era.

[Ratmandoo]

[i][b]"And speaking of Brady, it's hard to argue against Greatest of All Time (I'd have given him the nod before yesterday); however, I think it's also fair to characterize him as the GLOAT:  Greatest, Luckiest of All Time.  Think what his resume would look like if:  (a) bogus tuck rule was called correctly against Raiders, (b) Petey chose to run Beast Mode from the 1 yard line instead of passing (which resulted in a pick), and © Atlanta ran the ball 3 times and tried a FG.

I'd say Brady has 2 Super Bowl Ws and 4 (straight) Super Bowl Ls.  He still might be the best, but that resume looks and feels a lot different without the "head-scratching luck" he has enjoyed.

That's true but the two losses that Brady had in the Super Bowl to the Giants were the result of two miracle plays (The Tyree helmet catch and the sideline bomb to Manningham). In both of those games, Brady left the field late in the game with the lead that he handed for the defense to hold. In terms of luck, a really unlucky Brady could be 1-5 in Super Bowls (the Tuck rule keeping him out of one SuperBowl, losing the two games Terry cites and a couple of plays that could have changed the outcome in the Patriot's 3 point win over the Panthers. Their only clear win was over the Eagles). And if he's really lucky, Brady could be 7-0 in Super Bowls. It's amazing how much a legacy can change with a couple bounces of an oblong ball (or some great, bad, awesome or AYFKM playcalls....but I'm not going to get into that argument). It also helps Brady to have Belichick, the best football coach of the modern era.

[82lsju]

And speaking of Brady, it's hard to argue against Greatest of All Time (I'd have given him the nod before yesterday); however, I think it's also fair to characterize him as the GLOAT:  Greatest, Luckiest of All Time.  Think what his resume would look like if:  (a) bogus tuck rule was called correctly against Raiders, (b) Petey chose to run Beast Mode from the 1 yard line instead of passing (which resulted in a pick), and © Atlanta ran the ball 3 times and tried a FG.

I'd say Brady has 2 Super Bowl Ws and 4 (straight) Super Bowl Ls.  He still might be the best, but that resume looks and feels a lot different without the "head-scratching luck" he has enjoyed.

what about Otto Graham?

- 10 championship games (4 in the AAFL and 6 in the NFL) in a 10 year career
- 7 championships (4 in the AAFL and 3 in the NFL

and he was also on an NBL (predecessor of the NBA) championship team before he started his professional football career.......

[82lsju]

And speaking of Brady, it's hard to argue against Greatest of All Time (I'd have given him the nod before yesterday); however, I think it's also fair to characterize him as the GLOAT:  Greatest, Luckiest of All Time.  Think what his resume would look like if:  (a) bogus tuck rule was called correctly against Raiders, (b) Petey chose to run Beast Mode from the 1 yard line instead of passing (which resulted in a pick), and © Atlanta ran the ball 3 times and tried a FG.

I'd say Brady has 2 Super Bowl Ws and 4 (straight) Super Bowl Ls.  He still might be the best, but that resume looks and feels a lot different without the "head-scratching luck" he has enjoyed.

what about Otto Graham?

- 10 championship games (4 in the AAFL and 6 in the NFL) in a 10 year career
- 7 championships (4 in the AAFL and 3 in the NFL

and he was also on an NBL (predecessor of the NBA) championship team before he started his professional football career.......

[Phogge]

The Browns were a machine. The Niners could not cover Dante Lavelli. Almost unbeatable.

[Phogge]

The Browns were a machine. The Niners could not cover Dante Lavelli. Almost unbeatable.

[stupac2]

Just stick with it for any of those three plays and walk out of the stadium with a Super Bowl win.

That's going overboard. The sack-fumble helped a lot, but even a punt there leaves the Pats plenty of time to march down the field and get a TD, it's not like Atlanta's defense was putting up much resistance.

The next series of downs isn't even 100%, teams in that position almost always win, but there were a handful of times where the team kicked the FG, then the opposing team got the TD, recovered the on-side kick, and got the FG to tie/win. Plus it's not like that was a gimme FG and they'd already lost a yard on a first-down run, and were averaging an abysmal 2.4 ypc in the second half. If that sequence had gone:

1st and 10: -1 yard.
2nd and 11: 2 yards, holding.
2nd and 21: 2 yards.
3rd and 19: -1 yard.
4th and 20: Matt Bryant 50-yard FG wide left.

Do you think people would be saying "YOU HAVE THE MVP AND THE BEST WR IN FOOTBALL THROW THE DAMN BALL ONCE!" Because I think that is what they would be saying.

[stupac2]

Just stick with it for any of those three plays and walk out of the stadium with a Super Bowl win.

That's going overboard. The sack-fumble helped a lot, but even a punt there leaves the Pats plenty of time to march down the field and get a TD, it's not like Atlanta's defense was putting up much resistance.

The next series of downs isn't even 100%, teams in that position almost always win, but there were a handful of times where the team kicked the FG, then the opposing team got the TD, recovered the on-side kick, and got the FG to tie/win. Plus it's not like that was a gimme FG and they'd already lost a yard on a first-down run, and were averaging an abysmal 2.4 ypc in the second half. If that sequence had gone:

1st and 10: -1 yard.
2nd and 11: 2 yards, holding.
2nd and 21: 2 yards.
3rd and 19: -1 yard.
4th and 20: Matt Bryant 50-yard FG wide left.

Do you think people would be saying "YOU HAVE THE MVP AND THE BEST WR IN FOOTBALL THROW THE DAMN BALL ONCE!" Because I think that is what they would be saying.

[AtlantaBadger]

[quote author=winflop link=topic=16558.msg188243#msg188243 date=1486420966]
All that being said, the Falcons' play calling in the second half was very Shawgren-esque.

Oh well.  I can't imagine how hard that loss would be if I was an Atlanta sports fan.  In the end, I am already thinking about March 18th.


[/quote]

I AM an Atlanta sports fan, though after several years in the 90s of living and dying with every Braves pitch, only to get punched in the gut time after time after time after time (except in 1995), I made a conscious decision to pay less attention to most sports (other than the Cardinal when Henry was playing, and the Colts now!), because I realized there is NOTHING I can do to control the outcome and getting upset about losses (and my teams ALWAYS lost big games) was dumb.  So while I certainly was rooting for the Falcons to win, and even in my semi-detached mode that blown Super Bowl hurt, I am less devastated than some.  But let me tell you, this town is like a funeral parlor the last couple of days! 

As for playcalls, Shanahan (and, for reasons cited above about him being the head coach, Quinn) is getting excoriated on sports radio and generally in water cooler conversations for not running the ball after Julio's AMAZING catch**, or, if you are going to pass, why the deep drop that Ryan took?  Should have been a three step quick hit or throwaway. 

But look, the Falcons lost that game for a lot of reasons -- 1-of-8 on third downs, almost complete inability in the second half for the defense to get off the field leading to the enormous disparity in number of plays (and TOP), and the defense being exhausted, etc.  But after going up 28-3 (that is frickin' 25 points!!!!!!!!!!!) midway through the third quarter, Atlanta only ran the ball FOUR TIMES the rest of the game.  I am totally in favor of keeping your foot on the gas and not being Shawgren-esque, but for crying out loud, you need to run the ball a few more times (or do quicker passes).


**  One of the many bummers about the blown game is that the Julio Jones catch should be going down in the annals of Super Bowl history as one of the very great catches of all time, one that should have essentially sealed the game.  That was a sick catch, period.  But unfortunately it will now be meaningless and forgotten.  Too bad.  What a grab.

Eric

[AtlantaBadger]

[quote author=winflop link=topic=16558.msg188243#msg188243 date=1486420966]
All that being said, the Falcons' play calling in the second half was very Shawgren-esque.

Oh well.  I can't imagine how hard that loss would be if I was an Atlanta sports fan.  In the end, I am already thinking about March 18th.


[/quote]

I AM an Atlanta sports fan, though after several years in the 90s of living and dying with every Braves pitch, only to get punched in the gut time after time after time after time (except in 1995), I made a conscious decision to pay less attention to most sports (other than the Cardinal when Henry was playing, and the Colts now!), because I realized there is NOTHING I can do to control the outcome and getting upset about losses (and my teams ALWAYS lost big games) was dumb.  So while I certainly was rooting for the Falcons to win, and even in my semi-detached mode that blown Super Bowl hurt, I am less devastated than some.  But let me tell you, this town is like a funeral parlor the last couple of days! 

As for playcalls, Shanahan (and, for reasons cited above about him being the head coach, Quinn) is getting excoriated on sports radio and generally in water cooler conversations for not running the ball after Julio's AMAZING catch**, or, if you are going to pass, why the deep drop that Ryan took?  Should have been a three step quick hit or throwaway. 

But look, the Falcons lost that game for a lot of reasons -- 1-of-8 on third downs, almost complete inability in the second half for the defense to get off the field leading to the enormous disparity in number of plays (and TOP), and the defense being exhausted, etc.  But after going up 28-3 (that is frickin' 25 points!!!!!!!!!!!) midway through the third quarter, Atlanta only ran the ball FOUR TIMES the rest of the game.  I am totally in favor of keeping your foot on the gas and not being Shawgren-esque, but for crying out loud, you need to run the ball a few more times (or do quicker passes).


**  One of the many bummers about the blown game is that the Julio Jones catch should be going down in the annals of Super Bowl history as one of the very great catches of all time, one that should have essentially sealed the game.  That was a sick catch, period.  But unfortunately it will now be meaningless and forgotten.  Too bad.  What a grab.

Eric

[BigEasyCard]

[quote author=Farm93 link=topic=16558.msg188254#msg188254 date=1486424419]
[quote author=winflop link=topic=16558.msg188243#msg188243 date=1486420966]
All that being said, the Falcons' play calling in the second half was very Shawgren-esque.

Oh well.  I can't imagine how hard that loss would be if I was an Atlanta sports fan.  In the end, I am already thinking about March 18th.


[/quote]
.......

**  One of the many bummers about the blown game is that the Julio Jones catch should be going down in the annals of Super Bowl history as one of the very great catches of all time, one that should have essentially sealed the game.  That was a sick catch, period.  But unfortunately it will now be meaningless and forgotten.  Too bad.  What a grab.

Eric
[/quote]

Saints fan here who was rooting for the Falcons.

The catch by Julio Jones was meaningless as far as the final score, but memorable nonetheless.  IIRC, he had another great catch on the other sideline earlier in the game.

Geaux Cardinal!

[BigEasyCard]

[quote author=Farm93 link=topic=16558.msg188254#msg188254 date=1486424419]
[quote author=winflop link=topic=16558.msg188243#msg188243 date=1486420966]
All that being said, the Falcons' play calling in the second half was very Shawgren-esque.

Oh well.  I can't imagine how hard that loss would be if I was an Atlanta sports fan.  In the end, I am already thinking about March 18th.


[/quote]
.......

**  One of the many bummers about the blown game is that the Julio Jones catch should be going down in the annals of Super Bowl history as one of the very great catches of all time, one that should have essentially sealed the game.  That was a sick catch, period.  But unfortunately it will now be meaningless and forgotten.  Too bad.  What a grab.

Eric
[/quote]

Saints fan here who was rooting for the Falcons.

The catch by Julio Jones was meaningless as far as the final score, but memorable nonetheless.  IIRC, he had another great catch on the other sideline earlier in the game.

Geaux Cardinal!

[CowboyIndian]

But look, the Falcons lost that game for a lot of reasons -- 1-of-8 on third downs, almost complete inability in the second half for the defense to get off the field leading to the enormous disparity in number of plays (and TOP), and the defense being exhausted, etc.

Another reason....and I put this squarely on Matt Ryan: he was calling for the ball with 10-15 seconds left on the play clock. The clock is your friend with a 25-point lead. Use it!

[CowboyIndian]

But look, the Falcons lost that game for a lot of reasons -- 1-of-8 on third downs, almost complete inability in the second half for the defense to get off the field leading to the enormous disparity in number of plays (and TOP), and the defense being exhausted, etc.

Another reason....and I put this squarely on Matt Ryan: he was calling for the ball with 10-15 seconds left on the play clock. The clock is your friend with a 25-point lead. Use it!

[Farm93]

[quote author=AtlantaBadger link=topic=16558.msg188294#msg188294 date=1486489185]
But look, the Falcons lost that game for a lot of reasons -- 1-of-8 on third downs, almost complete inability in the second half for the defense to get off the field leading to the enormous disparity in number of plays (and TOP), and the defense being exhausted, etc.

Another reason....and I put this squarely on Matt Ryan: he was calling for the ball with 10-15 seconds left on the play clock. The clock is your friend with a 25-point lead. Use it!
[/quote]

The MVP wasn't making Super Bowl MVP choices.  The OC was making odd choices.  And the Head Coach apparently has no control over the offense as the blame seems to be put on the other two. 

MVP could have attempted shorter passes or gone with a run game even if they were not getting big yards they would have consumed time.  A number of mediocre NFL teams could have won with that 28-3 lead, but the Falcons didn't have the players, plays, or staff needed to shorten the second half.

"Do what you do" and all.

[Farm93]

[quote author=AtlantaBadger link=topic=16558.msg188294#msg188294 date=1486489185]
But look, the Falcons lost that game for a lot of reasons -- 1-of-8 on third downs, almost complete inability in the second half for the defense to get off the field leading to the enormous disparity in number of plays (and TOP), and the defense being exhausted, etc.

Another reason....and I put this squarely on Matt Ryan: he was calling for the ball with 10-15 seconds left on the play clock. The clock is your friend with a 25-point lead. Use it!
[/quote]

The MVP wasn't making Super Bowl MVP choices.  The OC was making odd choices.  And the Head Coach apparently has no control over the offense as the blame seems to be put on the other two. 

MVP could have attempted shorter passes or gone with a run game even if they were not getting big yards they would have consumed time.  A number of mediocre NFL teams could have won with that 28-3 lead, but the Falcons didn't have the players, plays, or staff needed to shorten the second half.

"Do what you do" and all.

[Langdude]

ATL center also playing with a broken leg. I can imagine how it must have felt by the end of the game...

-m.

[Langdude]

ATL center also playing with a broken leg. I can imagine how it must have felt by the end of the game...

-m.

[fullmetal]

He gave up the sack that Ryan shouldn't have taken :(

[fullmetal]

He gave up the sack that Ryan shouldn't have taken :(