[M T]

As we await Monday's announcement of our Bridgeport #2 seeding****, I thought I'd leave a pointer back to last year's discussion
    http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?topic=14732.0

538 appears not to be doing a 2017 March Madness Prediction this year, but it was interesting to see the info last year.
Maryland also secured a #2 seed last year, and got its comeuppance from U. Washington.
We almost got our comeuppance from South Dakota State, but we marched on. 

Stanford started off with a 14% chance of Elite Eight.  Once we righted ourselves from almost slipping up in the 2nd round, the big win was over Notre Dame, which looks like it was given about a 85% chance of beating us in that game.
Oregon State started off with a 14% chance of Final Four.
Washington started off with a 0.2% chance of Final Four.

I hadn't really thought about PAC-12 vs PAC-12 matchups in the NCAA.  As we found out last year, those may be the toughest.  Another matchup with UCLA or Oregon State or Washington might be in our future.  Will the committee rig it again so the top 3 PAC-12 teams are in two regionals, preventing more than 2 from getting to the Final Four?

Is the PAC-12 as good this year for the tournament as last year?  Maybe so, but Washington & Stanford have shown some vulnerabilities.  More than any other conference, the PAC-12 has honed the teams to be ready for anything the rest of the country can throw at us.  Possibly even in Bridgeport.



****  Maybe they'll surprise me and rank us as the highest #2, giving us a chance to play UConn on a neutral court (Dallas).  I wouldn't mind that in the least....  I just hope it works out better than in San Antonio.  Of course our chances are better on a neutral court rather than in front of all their fans.

[M T]

As we await Monday's announcement of our Bridgeport #2 seeding****, I thought I'd leave a pointer back to last year's discussion
    http://thecardboard.org/board/index.php?topic=14732.0

538 appears not to be doing a 2017 March Madness Prediction this year, but it was interesting to see the info last year.
Maryland also secured a #2 seed last year, and got its comeuppance from U. Washington.
We almost got our comeuppance from South Dakota State, but we marched on. 

Stanford started off with a 14% chance of Elite Eight.  Once we righted ourselves from almost slipping up in the 2nd round, the big win was over Notre Dame, which looks like it was given about a 85% chance of beating us in that game.
Oregon State started off with a 14% chance of Final Four.
Washington started off with a 0.2% chance of Final Four.

I hadn't really thought about PAC-12 vs PAC-12 matchups in the NCAA.  As we found out last year, those may be the toughest.  Another matchup with UCLA or Oregon State or Washington might be in our future.  Will the committee rig it again so the top 3 PAC-12 teams are in two regionals, preventing more than 2 from getting to the Final Four?

Is the PAC-12 as good this year for the tournament as last year?  Maybe so, but Washington & Stanford have shown some vulnerabilities.  More than any other conference, the PAC-12 has honed the teams to be ready for anything the rest of the country can throw at us.  Possibly even in Bridgeport.



****  Maybe they'll surprise me and rank us as the highest #2, giving us a chance to play UConn on a neutral court (Dallas).  I wouldn't mind that in the least....  I just hope it works out better than in San Antonio.  Of course our chances are better on a neutral court rather than in front of all their fans.

[CompSci87]

Rebkell has some interesting posts.

All the autobid winners with the scores of their conference tournament finals. Stanford/OSU was the lowest-scoring, though only narrowly over the next lowest. http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=91229

Links to several diverse bracket projections. It's surprising how many put neither OSU nor Stanford in the Stockton regional. http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=91295

[CompSci87]

Rebkell has some interesting posts.

All the autobid winners with the scores of their conference tournament finals. Stanford/OSU was the lowest-scoring, though only narrowly over the next lowest. http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=91229

Links to several diverse bracket projections. It's surprising how many put neither OSU nor Stanford in the Stockton regional. http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=91295

[81alum]

The issue is predicting for sure who the 7 seeds will be.  Tennessee, Missouri, Kansas State, Creighton, Temple, West Virginia, Marquette, Arizona State, Texas A&M, LSU, Miami, Syracuse, NC State, and South Florida all appear on one or another of those brackets as 7 seeds.  So while there is practically unanimous agreement around the 1 seeds, there is anything but agreement on the 7 seeds. 

We won't be going to Arizona State, and I sure hope they don't send us to Tennessee for the second away game at Tennessee of the year--that would just be cruel.  But beyond those, we could go to a lot of different places. 

[81alum]

The issue is predicting for sure who the 7 seeds will be.  Tennessee, Missouri, Kansas State, Creighton, Temple, West Virginia, Marquette, Arizona State, Texas A&M, LSU, Miami, Syracuse, NC State, and South Florida all appear on one or another of those brackets as 7 seeds.  So while there is practically unanimous agreement around the 1 seeds, there is anything but agreement on the 7 seeds. 

We won't be going to Arizona State, and I sure hope they don't send us to Tennessee for the second away game at Tennessee of the year--that would just be cruel.  But beyond those, we could go to a lot of different places. 

[CompSci87]

Chances are slim, but I'm hoping Marquette will host Stanford in the subregional. I'm an alum of both schools and a Milwaukee native, so it would be a great excuse for a quick visit home to see the games with my sister.

[CompSci87]

Chances are slim, but I'm hoping Marquette will host Stanford in the subregional. I'm an alum of both schools and a Milwaukee native, so it would be a great excuse for a quick visit home to see the games with my sister.

[TheFarm07]

We are NOT in UConn's bracket. UCLA and Oregon got the short straw and both got placed in their region.

UCLA could meet the Huskies in the Sweet 16 and Oregon could match up against Duke, who got a 2 seed in the second round.

Maryland got a #3 seed in that region.


We are NOT in the Stockton region, either. Oregon State got the nod there as the #2 seed, opposite South Carolina.

Arizona State is the #8 seed against Michigan State


C.al gets in, despite doubts that their 6-12 conference record will keep them out, they are a #9 seed in Baylor's quarter


So, we are not in the Oklahoma City regional, so that leaves us going cross-country to Lexington, presumbly to face N.D. if we get that far.

[TheFarm07]

We are NOT in UConn's bracket. UCLA and Oregon got the short straw and both got placed in their region.

UCLA could meet the Huskies in the Sweet 16 and Oregon could match up against Duke, who got a 2 seed in the second round.

Maryland got a #3 seed in that region.


We are NOT in the Stockton region, either. Oregon State got the nod there as the #2 seed, opposite South Carolina.

Arizona State is the #8 seed against Michigan State


C.al gets in, despite doubts that their 6-12 conference record will keep them out, they are a #9 seed in Baylor's quarter


So, we are not in the Oklahoma City regional, so that leaves us going cross-country to Lexington, presumbly to face N.D. if we get that far.

[Spiny_Norman]

UW is #3 seed in Oklahoma City regional (with potential to play Gonzaga in 2nd round in Seattle!). So Stanford is in Lexington regional, apparently as #2 seed with Notre Dame as #1.

[Spiny_Norman]

UW is #3 seed in Oklahoma City regional (with potential to play Gonzaga in 2nd round in Seattle!). So Stanford is in Lexington regional, apparently as #2 seed with Notre Dame as #1.

[BobK]

Cal 9 in the Oklahoma City.  Just shows how strong the PAC 12 has become

[BobK]

Cal 9 in the Oklahoma City.  Just shows how strong the PAC 12 has become

[TheFarm07]

ןɐɔ 9 in the Oklahoma City.  Just shows how strong the PAC 12 has become

Agreed. The consensus seemed to be just 6 Pac-12 teams with Ca.l iffy as a bubble team. To be in and as a #9 seed means that they were not in that much danger of missing out on a tournament bid

[TheFarm07]

ןɐɔ 9 in the Oklahoma City.  Just shows how strong the PAC 12 has become

Agreed. The consensus seemed to be just 6 Pac-12 teams with Ca.l iffy as a bubble team. To be in and as a #9 seed means that they were not in that much danger of missing out on a tournament bid

[TheFarm07]

Yep, we are getting Texas again in the Sweet 16, with Kentucky as the #4 seed

[TheFarm07]

Yep, we are getting Texas again in the Sweet 16, with Kentucky as the #4 seed

[TheFarm07]

#2 seed in the Lexington Region:

Two potential rematches: #3 Texas in the Sweet 16, #1 N.D. in the Elite 8

We travel to Manhattan, Kansas to play New Mexico State on Saturday with a matchup against Kansas State in the second round looming


I'm not thrilled about facing the Longhorns again, since they are very talented, have improved and will certainly be very motivated to avenge their loss to us from November

But looking at the other #3 seeds that we could have been matched up with (excluding UW since they are a conference foe): Maryland, who though their SOS got heavily criticized, is very talented and a perennial heavyweight and Florida State, who gave UConn their closest win (by only 2 points), it wouldn't have been an easy game with either of them

[TheFarm07]

#2 seed in the Lexington Region:

Two potential rematches: #3 Texas in the Sweet 16, #1 N.D. in the Elite 8

We travel to Manhattan, Kansas to play New Mexico State on Saturday with a matchup against Kansas State in the second round looming


I'm not thrilled about facing the Longhorns again, since they are very talented, have improved and will certainly be very motivated to avenge their loss to us from November

But looking at the other #3 seeds that we could have been matched up with (excluding UW since they are a conference foe): Maryland, who though their SOS got heavily criticized, is very talented and a perennial heavyweight and Florida State, who gave UConn their closest win (by only 2 points), it wouldn't have been an easy game with either of them

[chimera]

It is not the easiest but it could have been way worse.  KSU is #17 by Sagarin but only 2-7 against Sagarin top 25 teams.  They have plenty of height.  Not a high scoring team.  A couple of good three point shooters but that's it.  Their defense is not as good as our statistically.  They don't look to be a dominant rebounding team.  That's just from a very quick look at their stats.  A rematch with Texas would be tough.  They had a great stretch late in the season and then struggled at the very end.  My theory is I would rather play teams that have been hot, figuring they are due to come back to the mean for them.  I dislike playing a very good team that has struggled because they are due to break out of the struggle (back to their mean).  Well, just win the first two and then we shall see.  Cal as a 9 is a surprise.  They play LSU in the Mediocre Bowl for a chance to play a cranky Baylor team and watch Mulkey go nuts.  I feel bad for UCLA.  I thought they would be a 3 but they are a 4 in UConn's bracket.  They could give the Huskies trouble if their shooters are on and Canada goes wild.

[chimera]

It is not the easiest but it could have been way worse.  KSU is #17 by Sagarin but only 2-7 against Sagarin top 25 teams.  They have plenty of height.  Not a high scoring team.  A couple of good three point shooters but that's it.  Their defense is not as good as our statistically.  They don't look to be a dominant rebounding team.  That's just from a very quick look at their stats.  A rematch with Texas would be tough.  They had a great stretch late in the season and then struggled at the very end.  My theory is I would rather play teams that have been hot, figuring they are due to come back to the mean for them.  I dislike playing a very good team that has struggled because they are due to break out of the struggle (back to their mean).  Well, just win the first two and then we shall see.  Cal as a 9 is a surprise.  They play LSU in the Mediocre Bowl for a chance to play a cranky Baylor team and watch Mulkey go nuts.  I feel bad for UCLA.  I thought they would be a 3 but they are a 4 in UConn's bracket.  They could give the Huskies trouble if their shooters are on and Canada goes wild.

[TheFarm07]

Hope the team doesn't get the Northwestern blues that afflicted the football team in the 2015 opener as we play in the first time slot on Saturday morning at 10:30 Pacific Coast time.

[TheFarm07]

Hope the team doesn't get the Northwestern blues that afflicted the football team in the 2015 opener as we play in the first time slot on Saturday morning at 10:30 Pacific Coast time.

[81alum]

Well, it could have been worse.  We are not in UConn's bracket.  We did get a 2 seed.  We are not going to Tennessee.  We won't have any Pac-12 rematches unless we get to the semis.

I hope we get to see an Oregon State / South Carolina game.  Naturally, I would not mind one bit if North Carlina State knocks off Texas and Kentucky knocks off Notre Dame.  Realistically, we would need to beat Texas, Notre Dame, South Carolina, and UConn to win another championship.  If we did that, we would deserve it!

[81alum]

Well, it could have been worse.  We are not in UConn's bracket.  We did get a 2 seed.  We are not going to Tennessee.  We won't have any Pac-12 rematches unless we get to the semis.

I hope we get to see an Oregon State / South Carolina game.  Naturally, I would not mind one bit if North Carlina State knocks off Texas and Kentucky knocks off Notre Dame.  Realistically, we would need to beat Texas, Notre Dame, South Carolina, and UConn to win another championship.  If we did that, we would deserve it!

[oldalum]

I would just love for the seniors to get back to the final four, which seems within the realm of the possible.

[oldalum]

I would just love for the seniors to get back to the final four, which seems within the realm of the possible.

[JJJ]

I put this in the band thread, but it's cleared for March Madness travel!

Is round 2 also in Kansas? Round 3 in Lexington? Having trouble finding that info in the brackets I've seen so far.

[JJJ]

I put this in the band thread, but it's cleared for March Madness travel!

Is round 2 also in Kansas? Round 3 in Lexington? Having trouble finding that info in the brackets I've seen so far.

[CompSci87]

Yes and yes.

[CompSci87]

Yes and yes.

[JJJ]

Yes and yes.

Thanks!  8)

[JJJ]

Yes and yes.

Thanks!  8)

[M T]

Needless to say, I am quite pleased and surprised with the seeding we got. 

538 has their bracket predictions up again:
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201...ns/womens/

They calculate we (or whoever beats us) have about a 70% chance of beating K State (if they get that far),
51% chance of beating Texas (iwgtf & if they get that far, 70% drops to 36%), but they have Texas at a 60% chance of beating us (90% drops to 54%)??  [Oh, I understand,  Texas's chances are against the winner of our bracket.  Stanford's chances are against the winner of their bracket.  That's why the numbers don't sum to 100%]
 
28% chance of beating ND (iwgtf & iftgtf).  [Up from 17% last year ]
50% chance of beating Oregon State (iwgtf & iftgtf)
20% chance of beating UConn (iwgth & iftgtf).

538 got burned by the PAC-12 last year.  I hope it is a bonfire this year.
I wouldn't mind another match-up with Washington this year.  Or, maybe we even the series with Oregon State.  Heck, I'd even be pleased if we got another shot at UCLA.

[M T]

Needless to say, I am quite pleased and surprised with the seeding we got. 

538 has their bracket predictions up again:
  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201...ns/womens/

They calculate we (or whoever beats us) have about a 70% chance of beating K State (if they get that far),
51% chance of beating Texas (iwgtf & if they get that far, 70% drops to 36%), but they have Texas at a 60% chance of beating us (90% drops to 54%)??  [Oh, I understand,  Texas's chances are against the winner of our bracket.  Stanford's chances are against the winner of their bracket.  That's why the numbers don't sum to 100%]
 
28% chance of beating ND (iwgtf & iftgtf).  [Up from 17% last year ]
50% chance of beating Oregon State (iwgtf & iftgtf)
20% chance of beating UConn (iwgth & iftgtf).

538 got burned by the PAC-12 last year.  I hope it is a bonfire this year.
I wouldn't mind another match-up with Washington this year.  Or, maybe we even the series with Oregon State.  Heck, I'd even be pleased if we got another shot at UCLA.

[81alum]

Creme may not have been right in his own bracket in many ways, but he is always a good critic of the bracket that actually comes out.  Among his remarks he points out the irrational and disparate way Baylor and Stanford were treated.  Baylor was sent to the Oklahoma City regional since it can make it there on a bus, but as a result South Carolina has to fly across the country to Stockton.  By that logic, he says, Stanford should go to Stockton instead of Oregon State.  In fairness, his criticism seems to be be meant more of a criticism of the way South Carolina was treated than of the way Stanford was treated.

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-baske...nt-bracket

[81alum]

Creme may not have been right in his own bracket in many ways, but he is always a good critic of the bracket that actually comes out.  Among his remarks he points out the irrational and disparate way Baylor and Stanford were treated.  Baylor was sent to the Oklahoma City regional since it can make it there on a bus, but as a result South Carolina has to fly across the country to Stockton.  By that logic, he says, Stanford should go to Stockton instead of Oregon State.  In fairness, his criticism seems to be be meant more of a criticism of the way South Carolina was treated than of the way Stanford was treated.

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-baske...nt-bracket

[BigEasyCard]

Barack Obama picks Stanford Women to advance to the Elite Eight and lose to Notre Dame:

https://www.obama.org/updates/sportsmans...ce=twitter

Geaux Cardinal!

[BigEasyCard]

Barack Obama picks Stanford Women to advance to the Elite Eight and lose to Notre Dame:

https://www.obama.org/updates/sportsmans...ce=twitter

Geaux Cardinal!