[Cardinaltree]

This is just a total misreading of the situation, at least as far as my paradigm.  I don't think I've seen anyone call for different QBs the minute they make a mistake.  That's kind of hyperbole IMO. 

After seeing Burns and Chryst in 2016, it was clear to me they weren't championship QB caliber.  I really didn't feel good about either one.  After seeing Costello in Spring, I wanted him to be the QB to start this season because I felt he was the best QB among the three.  There was no "replace this guy if he screws up, then bring in a new guy if he does too."  If Costello came in and stunk up the joint against UCLA, I'd still be more inclined to play him because he has a higher upside than either of the other two QBs.  Of course, he played pretty well.  He was demonstrably better than Chryst or Burns.  Sure it's one game, but you can see Costello just has more talent and needs an opportunity to get the reps needed to develop into a clear #1 starting QB.

It's just a mischaracterization to claim fans want to change QBs like socks.  I want one.  And I want Costello in 2017, period.  That said, I want to see Mills and Costello battle it out in Spring and Summer next year, and I want whoever wins that competition to be the QB in 2018.

Agree. Also, it isn't just one game. Costello seemed to clearly have more upside than anyone else in the Rice game. After seeing him in the Rice game I told my friend I was very optimistic about Stanford's quarterbacking future as long as Shaw gave him a chance. I'm not a football wizard, but it was clear to me he had something we haven't seen at Stanford in some years at that position.

[Cardinaltree]

This is just a total misreading of the situation, at least as far as my paradigm.  I don't think I've seen anyone call for different QBs the minute they make a mistake.  That's kind of hyperbole IMO. 

After seeing Burns and Chryst in 2016, it was clear to me they weren't championship QB caliber.  I really didn't feel good about either one.  After seeing Costello in Spring, I wanted him to be the QB to start this season because I felt he was the best QB among the three.  There was no "replace this guy if he screws up, then bring in a new guy if he does too."  If Costello came in and stunk up the joint against UCLA, I'd still be more inclined to play him because he has a higher upside than either of the other two QBs.  Of course, he played pretty well.  He was demonstrably better than Chryst or Burns.  Sure it's one game, but you can see Costello just has more talent and needs an opportunity to get the reps needed to develop into a clear #1 starting QB.

It's just a mischaracterization to claim fans want to change QBs like socks.  I want one.  And I want Costello in 2017, period.  That said, I want to see Mills and Costello battle it out in Spring and Summer next year, and I want whoever wins that competition to be the QB in 2018.

Agree. Also, it isn't just one game. Costello seemed to clearly have more upside than anyone else in the Rice game. After seeing him in the Rice game I told my friend I was very optimistic about Stanford's quarterbacking future as long as Shaw gave him a chance. I'm not a football wizard, but it was clear to me he had something we haven't seen at Stanford in some years at that position.

[martyup]

Welcome CardinalTree!

[martyup]

Welcome CardinalTree!

[Cardinaltree]

Welcome CardinalTree!

Thanks. Some folks here may "know" me from other sites, but I'm glad to be here.

[Cardinaltree]

Welcome CardinalTree!

Thanks. Some folks here may "know" me from other sites, but I'm glad to be here.

[CTcard]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=17483.msg202701#msg202701 date=1506306825]So, Shaw brings in Burns when Chryst gets injured on the first play of the second drive when presumably the team might need some calming. But, then it's Costello.
Then, when Stanford gets pinned back inside its own 10, it's back to Burns for one series. Presumably the vet less likely to freak out and create a turnover.
That was it for Burns other than the first play on our first drive of the second half starting inside our own 10 again. Though this time it was unclear if it was the no-turnover caution or (more likely) a single play from the Burns-package that they wanted to run.

Well, at least that's some sort of rationale. I'm not sure it's a good one, but at least it is one...
[/quote]

I agree it doesn't seem particularly good reasoning, but it is my best guess of what Shaw was thinking. 

It certainly seems a better explanation to me that one that runs along the lines of "Shaw is a football imbecile with emotional problems that are causing him to make decisions to tank the team."

[CTcard]

[quote author=CTcard link=topic=17483.msg202701#msg202701 date=1506306825]So, Shaw brings in Burns when Chryst gets injured on the first play of the second drive when presumably the team might need some calming. But, then it's Costello.
Then, when Stanford gets pinned back inside its own 10, it's back to Burns for one series. Presumably the vet less likely to freak out and create a turnover.
That was it for Burns other than the first play on our first drive of the second half starting inside our own 10 again. Though this time it was unclear if it was the no-turnover caution or (more likely) a single play from the Burns-package that they wanted to run.

Well, at least that's some sort of rationale. I'm not sure it's a good one, but at least it is one...
[/quote]

I agree it doesn't seem particularly good reasoning, but it is my best guess of what Shaw was thinking. 

It certainly seems a better explanation to me that one that runs along the lines of "Shaw is a football imbecile with emotional problems that are causing him to make decisions to tank the team."

[qwerty49]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17483.msg202639#msg202639 date=1506288854]

[/quote]

I found the next line of that article somewhat telling about what we saw vs UCLA.

"It was great to a see a fifth-year senior come in and settle down the offense, call the plays and get the guys pepped up again," said Shaw of Burns, ..."[he] had a calming presence."

So, Shaw brings in Burns when Chryst gets injured on the first play of the second drive when presumably the team might need some calming. But, then it's Costello.
Then, when Stanford gets pinned back inside its own 10, it's back to Burns for one series. Presumably the vet less likely to freak out and create a turnover.
That was it for Burns other than the first play on our first drive of the second half starting inside our own 10 again. Though this time it was unclear if it was the no-turnover caution or (more likely) a single play from the Burns-package that they wanted to run.
[/quote]

My impression of the "steadying influence" was distinctly different from Shaw's.  I thought Burns was not mentally prepared to come in when Chryst got hurt, and I thought that showed in his play.  I suspected last year after he lost the starting job that Burns lost focus and intensity.  When there were moments last year when Chryst was not, um, necessarily stellar, I looked in my binoculars for Burns on the sidelines.  He was never anywhere near the coaches -- always somewhere near the end of the sidelines, smiling, joking, but not outwardly into the flow of what was happening on the field.  I guess I'm just used to the cliche view of the backup QB with a visor and a headset, next to the coach, relaying messages from the eye in the sky OC, clearly engaged with the flow of the game.

Just my impression. 

[qwerty49]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17483.msg202639#msg202639 date=1506288854]

[/quote]

I found the next line of that article somewhat telling about what we saw vs UCLA.

"It was great to a see a fifth-year senior come in and settle down the offense, call the plays and get the guys pepped up again," said Shaw of Burns, ..."[he] had a calming presence."

So, Shaw brings in Burns when Chryst gets injured on the first play of the second drive when presumably the team might need some calming. But, then it's Costello.
Then, when Stanford gets pinned back inside its own 10, it's back to Burns for one series. Presumably the vet less likely to freak out and create a turnover.
That was it for Burns other than the first play on our first drive of the second half starting inside our own 10 again. Though this time it was unclear if it was the no-turnover caution or (more likely) a single play from the Burns-package that they wanted to run.
[/quote]

My impression of the "steadying influence" was distinctly different from Shaw's.  I thought Burns was not mentally prepared to come in when Chryst got hurt, and I thought that showed in his play.  I suspected last year after he lost the starting job that Burns lost focus and intensity.  When there were moments last year when Chryst was not, um, necessarily stellar, I looked in my binoculars for Burns on the sidelines.  He was never anywhere near the coaches -- always somewhere near the end of the sidelines, smiling, joking, but not outwardly into the flow of what was happening on the field.  I guess I'm just used to the cliche view of the backup QB with a visor and a headset, next to the coach, relaying messages from the eye in the sky OC, clearly engaged with the flow of the game.

Just my impression. 

[stupac2]

My impression of the "steadying influence" was distinctly different from Shaw's.  I thought Burns was not mentally prepared to come in when Chryst got hurt, and I thought that showed in his play.  I suspected last year after he lost the starting job that Burns lost focus and intensity.  When there were moments last year when Chryst was not, um, necessarily stellar, I looked in my binoculars for Burns on the sidelines.  He was never anywhere near the coaches -- always somewhere near the end of the sidelines, smiling, joking, but not outwardly into the flow of what was happening on the field.  I guess I'm just used to the cliche view of the backup QB with a visor and a headset, next to the coach, relaying messages from the eye in the sky OC, clearly engaged with the flow of the game.

Just my impression.

The article in question was about the Spring Game, and specifically about Burns coming in after Costello had been bad. CTCard was saying that Shaw might have felt similarly about this game. Shaw didn't say anything about his rationale for swapping Burns and Costello against UCLA, as far as I saw.

[stupac2]

My impression of the "steadying influence" was distinctly different from Shaw's.  I thought Burns was not mentally prepared to come in when Chryst got hurt, and I thought that showed in his play.  I suspected last year after he lost the starting job that Burns lost focus and intensity.  When there were moments last year when Chryst was not, um, necessarily stellar, I looked in my binoculars for Burns on the sidelines.  He was never anywhere near the coaches -- always somewhere near the end of the sidelines, smiling, joking, but not outwardly into the flow of what was happening on the field.  I guess I'm just used to the cliche view of the backup QB with a visor and a headset, next to the coach, relaying messages from the eye in the sky OC, clearly engaged with the flow of the game.

Just my impression.

The article in question was about the Spring Game, and specifically about Burns coming in after Costello had been bad. CTCard was saying that Shaw might have felt similarly about this game. Shaw didn't say anything about his rationale for swapping Burns and Costello against UCLA, as far as I saw.

[qwerty49]

[quote author=qwerty49 link=topic=17483.msg202728#msg202728 date=1506318154]My impression of the "steadying influence" was distinctly different from Shaw's.  I thought Burns was not mentally prepared to come in when Chryst got hurt, and I thought that showed in his play.  I suspected last year after he lost the starting job that Burns lost focus and intensity.  When there were moments last year when Chryst was not, um, necessarily stellar, I looked in my binoculars for Burns on the sidelines.  He was never anywhere near the coaches -- always somewhere near the end of the sidelines, smiling, joking, but not outwardly into the flow of what was happening on the field.  I guess I'm just used to the cliche view of the backup QB with a visor and a headset, next to the coach, relaying messages from the eye in the sky OC, clearly engaged with the flow of the game.

Just my impression.

The article in question was about the Spring Game, and specifically about Burns coming in after Costello had been bad. CTCard was saying that Shaw might have felt similarly about this game. Shaw didn't say anything about his rationale for swapping Burns and Costello against UCLA, as far as I saw.
[/quote]

Ah, yes, my bad. I was actually really hoping Shaw didn't say that about the UCLA game. But I'll stand behind my impression of Burns. He just didn't look like he was ready when called on. Granted, it's a tough situation, but a QB has to be really focused on what's happening, whether he's on the field or not.

[qwerty49]

[quote author=qwerty49 link=topic=17483.msg202728#msg202728 date=1506318154]My impression of the "steadying influence" was distinctly different from Shaw's.  I thought Burns was not mentally prepared to come in when Chryst got hurt, and I thought that showed in his play.  I suspected last year after he lost the starting job that Burns lost focus and intensity.  When there were moments last year when Chryst was not, um, necessarily stellar, I looked in my binoculars for Burns on the sidelines.  He was never anywhere near the coaches -- always somewhere near the end of the sidelines, smiling, joking, but not outwardly into the flow of what was happening on the field.  I guess I'm just used to the cliche view of the backup QB with a visor and a headset, next to the coach, relaying messages from the eye in the sky OC, clearly engaged with the flow of the game.

Just my impression.

The article in question was about the Spring Game, and specifically about Burns coming in after Costello had been bad. CTCard was saying that Shaw might have felt similarly about this game. Shaw didn't say anything about his rationale for swapping Burns and Costello against UCLA, as far as I saw.
[/quote]

Ah, yes, my bad. I was actually really hoping Shaw didn't say that about the UCLA game. But I'll stand behind my impression of Burns. He just didn't look like he was ready when called on. Granted, it's a tough situation, but a QB has to be really focused on what's happening, whether he's on the field or not.

[Goose]

IPlus, Costello had a better completion percentage in high school than Burns or Chryst, against better competition.

I was pretty impressed with this fact, until I looked a bit deeper. Yes, Costello had a higher carer completion percentage than Chryst. HOWEVER, Chryst had a higher quarterback rating than Costello every single year. Chryst also threw for more touchdowns and more yards. For those of you who want to check, look at

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kj-coste...-stats.htm
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/keller-c...-stats.htm

So "cherry-picking" one stat can create a probably misleading impression. What do these stats really mean? Probably very little. I kick myself for paying attention to this red herring. That said, I still hope that they start Costello, but this is a bogus data point.

[Goose]

IPlus, Costello had a better completion percentage in high school than Burns or Chryst, against better competition.

I was pretty impressed with this fact, until I looked a bit deeper. Yes, Costello had a higher carer completion percentage than Chryst. HOWEVER, Chryst had a higher quarterback rating than Costello every single year. Chryst also threw for more touchdowns and more yards. For those of you who want to check, look at

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kj-coste...-stats.htm
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/keller-c...-stats.htm

So "cherry-picking" one stat can create a probably misleading impression. What do these stats really mean? Probably very little. I kick myself for paying attention to this red herring. That said, I still hope that they start Costello, but this is a bogus data point.

[FarmBoy]

[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=17483.msg202688#msg202688 date=1506301116]
IPlus, Costello had a better completion percentage in high school than Burns or Chryst, against better competition.

I was pretty impressed with this fact, until I looked a bit deeper. Yes, Costello had a higher carer completion percentage than Chryst. HOWEVER, Chryst had a higher quarterback rating than Costello every single year. Chryst also threw for more touchdowns and more yards. For those of you who want to check, look at

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kj-coste...-stats.htm
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/keller-c...-stats.htm

So "cherry-picking" one stat can create a probably misleading impression. What do these stats really mean? Probably very little. I kick myself for paying attention to this red herring. That said, I still hope that they start Costello, but this is a bogus data point.
[/quote]

Can some of that difference be explained by the level of competition they went against? I don't know much about high school football, but I do know the names St. John Bosco, Long Beach Poly, Mater Dei, Oaks Christian, and Servite.

I also recall Chryst underwhelming at the elite 11 camp. True, it's an elite group, but he went in with a very high rating and seemed to drop throughout the week. Perhaps that was a sign that his high rating wasn't as well substantiated?

[FarmBoy]

[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=17483.msg202688#msg202688 date=1506301116]
IPlus, Costello had a better completion percentage in high school than Burns or Chryst, against better competition.

I was pretty impressed with this fact, until I looked a bit deeper. Yes, Costello had a higher carer completion percentage than Chryst. HOWEVER, Chryst had a higher quarterback rating than Costello every single year. Chryst also threw for more touchdowns and more yards. For those of you who want to check, look at

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kj-coste...-stats.htm
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/keller-c...-stats.htm

So "cherry-picking" one stat can create a probably misleading impression. What do these stats really mean? Probably very little. I kick myself for paying attention to this red herring. That said, I still hope that they start Costello, but this is a bogus data point.
[/quote]

Can some of that difference be explained by the level of competition they went against? I don't know much about high school football, but I do know the names St. John Bosco, Long Beach Poly, Mater Dei, Oaks Christian, and Servite.

I also recall Chryst underwhelming at the elite 11 camp. True, it's an elite group, but he went in with a very high rating and seemed to drop throughout the week. Perhaps that was a sign that his high rating wasn't as well substantiated?

[Hurlburt88]

I believe KC threw more long balls thus the higher QBR with lower completion rate.  Maybe the offense in which Costello thrived translates better to our system also? 

[Hurlburt88]

I believe KC threw more long balls thus the higher QBR with lower completion rate.  Maybe the offense in which Costello thrived translates better to our system also? 

[Mick]

[quote author=Goose link=topic=17483.msg202909#msg202909 date=1506397429]
[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=17483.msg202688#msg202688 date=1506301116]
IPlus, Costello had a better completion percentage in high school than Burns or Chryst, against better competition.

I was pretty impressed with this fact, until I looked a bit deeper. Yes, Costello had a higher carer completion percentage than Chryst. HOWEVER, Chryst had a higher quarterback rating than Costello every single year. Chryst also threw for more touchdowns and more yards. For those of you who want to check, look at

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kj-coste...-stats.htm
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/keller-c...-stats.htm

So "cherry-picking" one stat can create a probably misleading impression. What do these stats really mean? Probably very little. I kick myself for paying attention to this red herring. That said, I still hope that they start Costello, but this is a bogus data point.
[/quote]

Can some of that difference be explained by the level of competition they went against? I don't know much about high school football, but I do know the names St. John Bosco, Long Beach Poly, Mater Dei, Oaks Christian, and Servite.

I also recall Chryst underwhelming at the elite 11 camp. True, it's an elite group, but he went in with a very high rating and seemed to drop throughout the week. Perhaps that was a sign that his high rating wasn't as well substantiated?
[/quote]

In his losses, Chryst threw for a 68 rating against St. Francis of Mt. View, a 112 against Mitty and a 94 against Palma.  His remaining opponents were nonentities. 

In his losses, Costello threw for a 66 rating against Mater Dei (chiefly because of 4 INTs, they had no ground game at all), 67 against Servite (2 INTs), 119 against Bosco, 75 against Orange Lutheran, and 59 against Westlake.

After having seen a fair amount of SoCal football and other sports, Mater Dei (Costello's last playoff opponent) is worlds better than St. Francis (Chryst's last playoff opponent).  Costello's running backs gained 5 (five) yards total against Mater Dei.  Costello was 23 of 39 for 346 yards and two TDs with 4 INTs playing for Santa Margarita, a good catholic school, but probably more similar to Palma than Bellarmine or St. Francis.  Costello's two main receivers in high school were Grant Calcaterra (TE) who now does very well for Oklahoma and Kekoa Crawford who is on Michigan's roster.  Costello and Santa Margarita's RBs were tackled 13 times for losses (Costello four sacks for net -23 yards).

Palo Alto had similar inability to run against St. Francis which had seven tackles for loss and four sacks.

Costello and Chryst had similar games against their final playoff opponents.  The big difference?  Santa Margarita's opponents.  Mater Dei was ranked 17th in the country, Servite was #209, Bosco was #4 in the country.  Paly's opponents were St. Francis, who was ranked 1,269th nationally by MaxPreps, Mitty (#334) and Palma (#3,227).  Let's throw in Milpitas (#1,490). 

There's just no comparison in strength of schedule.  Week in and week out, Costello had a much, much tougher schedule.

[Mick]

[quote author=Goose link=topic=17483.msg202909#msg202909 date=1506397429]
[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=17483.msg202688#msg202688 date=1506301116]
IPlus, Costello had a better completion percentage in high school than Burns or Chryst, against better competition.

I was pretty impressed with this fact, until I looked a bit deeper. Yes, Costello had a higher carer completion percentage than Chryst. HOWEVER, Chryst had a higher quarterback rating than Costello every single year. Chryst also threw for more touchdowns and more yards. For those of you who want to check, look at

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kj-coste...-stats.htm
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/keller-c...-stats.htm

So "cherry-picking" one stat can create a probably misleading impression. What do these stats really mean? Probably very little. I kick myself for paying attention to this red herring. That said, I still hope that they start Costello, but this is a bogus data point.
[/quote]

Can some of that difference be explained by the level of competition they went against? I don't know much about high school football, but I do know the names St. John Bosco, Long Beach Poly, Mater Dei, Oaks Christian, and Servite.

I also recall Chryst underwhelming at the elite 11 camp. True, it's an elite group, but he went in with a very high rating and seemed to drop throughout the week. Perhaps that was a sign that his high rating wasn't as well substantiated?
[/quote]

In his losses, Chryst threw for a 68 rating against St. Francis of Mt. View, a 112 against Mitty and a 94 against Palma.  His remaining opponents were nonentities. 

In his losses, Costello threw for a 66 rating against Mater Dei (chiefly because of 4 INTs, they had no ground game at all), 67 against Servite (2 INTs), 119 against Bosco, 75 against Orange Lutheran, and 59 against Westlake.

After having seen a fair amount of SoCal football and other sports, Mater Dei (Costello's last playoff opponent) is worlds better than St. Francis (Chryst's last playoff opponent).  Costello's running backs gained 5 (five) yards total against Mater Dei.  Costello was 23 of 39 for 346 yards and two TDs with 4 INTs playing for Santa Margarita, a good catholic school, but probably more similar to Palma than Bellarmine or St. Francis.  Costello's two main receivers in high school were Grant Calcaterra (TE) who now does very well for Oklahoma and Kekoa Crawford who is on Michigan's roster.  Costello and Santa Margarita's RBs were tackled 13 times for losses (Costello four sacks for net -23 yards).

Palo Alto had similar inability to run against St. Francis which had seven tackles for loss and four sacks.

Costello and Chryst had similar games against their final playoff opponents.  The big difference?  Santa Margarita's opponents.  Mater Dei was ranked 17th in the country, Servite was #209, Bosco was #4 in the country.  Paly's opponents were St. Francis, who was ranked 1,269th nationally by MaxPreps, Mitty (#334) and Palma (#3,227).  Let's throw in Milpitas (#1,490). 

There's just no comparison in strength of schedule.  Week in and week out, Costello had a much, much tougher schedule.

[FarmBoy]

[quote author=FarmBoy link=topic=17483.msg202911#msg202911 date=1506399519]
[quote author=Goose link=topic=17483.msg202909#msg202909 date=1506397429]
[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=17483.msg202688#msg202688 date=1506301116]
IPlus, Costello had a better completion percentage in high school than Burns or Chryst, against better competition.

I was pretty impressed with this fact, until I looked a bit deeper. Yes, Costello had a higher carer completion percentage than Chryst. HOWEVER, Chryst had a higher quarterback rating than Costello every single year. Chryst also threw for more touchdowns and more yards. For those of you who want to check, look at

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kj-coste...-stats.htm
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/keller-c...-stats.htm

So "cherry-picking" one stat can create a probably misleading impression. What do these stats really mean? Probably very little. I kick myself for paying attention to this red herring. That said, I still hope that they start Costello, but this is a bogus data point.
[/quote]

Can some of that difference be explained by the level of competition they went against? I don't know much about high school football, but I do know the names St. John Bosco, Long Beach Poly, Mater Dei, Oaks Christian, and Servite.

I also recall Chryst underwhelming at the elite 11 camp. True, it's an elite group, but he went in with a very high rating and seemed to drop throughout the week. Perhaps that was a sign that his high rating wasn't as well substantiated?
[/quote]

In his losses, Chryst threw for a 68 rating against St. Francis of Mt. View, a 112 against Mitty and a 94 against Palma.  His remaining opponents were nonentities. 

In his losses, Costello threw for a 66 rating against Mater Dei (chiefly because of 4 INTs, they had no ground game at all), 67 against Servite (2 INTs), 119 against Bosco, 75 against Orange Lutheran, and 59 against Westlake.

After having seen a fair amount of SoCal football and other sports, Mater Dei (Costello's last playoff opponent) is worlds better than St. Francis (Chryst's last playoff opponent).  Costello's running backs gained 5 (five) yards total against Mater Dei.  Costello was 23 of 39 for 346 yards and two TDs with 4 INTs playing for Santa Margarita, a good catholic school, but probably more similar to Palma than Bellarmine or St. Francis.  Costello's two main receivers in high school were Grant Calcaterra (TE) who now does very well for Oklahoma and Kekoa Crawford who is on Michigan's roster.  Costello and Santa Margarita's RBs were tackled 13 times for losses (Costello four sacks for net -23 yards).

Palo Alto had similar inability to run against St. Francis which had seven tackles for loss and four sacks.

Costello and Chryst had similar games against their final playoff opponents.  The big difference?  Santa Margarita's opponents.  Mater Dei was ranked 17th in the country, Servite was #209, Bosco was #4 in the country.  Paly's opponents were St. Francis, who was ranked 1,269th nationally by MaxPreps, Mitty (#334) and Palma (#3,227).  Let's throw in Milpitas (#1,490). 

There's just no comparison in strength of schedule.  Week in and week out, Costello had a much, much tougher schedule.
[/quote]

Thanks for the detailed response, Mick. Perhaps this is truly a case of iron sharpens iron. If Chryst built his rep playing cupcakes, it's not as big a surprise his game didn't translate. I assume that Luck had a lot of competition against teams in Houston. Not sure what kind of competition Hogan had in DC so maybe it doesn't always hold.

I really feel bad for a gy like Chryst. He's been preparing his whole life to play QB in college and likely in the NFL. He's been highly touted which probably increased his self expectations for success. If Costello truly surpasses him, he'll have to pull together a plan B pretty quick.

[FarmBoy]

[quote author=FarmBoy link=topic=17483.msg202911#msg202911 date=1506399519]
[quote author=Goose link=topic=17483.msg202909#msg202909 date=1506397429]
[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=17483.msg202688#msg202688 date=1506301116]
IPlus, Costello had a better completion percentage in high school than Burns or Chryst, against better competition.

I was pretty impressed with this fact, until I looked a bit deeper. Yes, Costello had a higher carer completion percentage than Chryst. HOWEVER, Chryst had a higher quarterback rating than Costello every single year. Chryst also threw for more touchdowns and more yards. For those of you who want to check, look at

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kj-coste...-stats.htm
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/keller-c...-stats.htm

So "cherry-picking" one stat can create a probably misleading impression. What do these stats really mean? Probably very little. I kick myself for paying attention to this red herring. That said, I still hope that they start Costello, but this is a bogus data point.
[/quote]

Can some of that difference be explained by the level of competition they went against? I don't know much about high school football, but I do know the names St. John Bosco, Long Beach Poly, Mater Dei, Oaks Christian, and Servite.

I also recall Chryst underwhelming at the elite 11 camp. True, it's an elite group, but he went in with a very high rating and seemed to drop throughout the week. Perhaps that was a sign that his high rating wasn't as well substantiated?
[/quote]

In his losses, Chryst threw for a 68 rating against St. Francis of Mt. View, a 112 against Mitty and a 94 against Palma.  His remaining opponents were nonentities. 

In his losses, Costello threw for a 66 rating against Mater Dei (chiefly because of 4 INTs, they had no ground game at all), 67 against Servite (2 INTs), 119 against Bosco, 75 against Orange Lutheran, and 59 against Westlake.

After having seen a fair amount of SoCal football and other sports, Mater Dei (Costello's last playoff opponent) is worlds better than St. Francis (Chryst's last playoff opponent).  Costello's running backs gained 5 (five) yards total against Mater Dei.  Costello was 23 of 39 for 346 yards and two TDs with 4 INTs playing for Santa Margarita, a good catholic school, but probably more similar to Palma than Bellarmine or St. Francis.  Costello's two main receivers in high school were Grant Calcaterra (TE) who now does very well for Oklahoma and Kekoa Crawford who is on Michigan's roster.  Costello and Santa Margarita's RBs were tackled 13 times for losses (Costello four sacks for net -23 yards).

Palo Alto had similar inability to run against St. Francis which had seven tackles for loss and four sacks.

Costello and Chryst had similar games against their final playoff opponents.  The big difference?  Santa Margarita's opponents.  Mater Dei was ranked 17th in the country, Servite was #209, Bosco was #4 in the country.  Paly's opponents were St. Francis, who was ranked 1,269th nationally by MaxPreps, Mitty (#334) and Palma (#3,227).  Let's throw in Milpitas (#1,490). 

There's just no comparison in strength of schedule.  Week in and week out, Costello had a much, much tougher schedule.
[/quote]

Thanks for the detailed response, Mick. Perhaps this is truly a case of iron sharpens iron. If Chryst built his rep playing cupcakes, it's not as big a surprise his game didn't translate. I assume that Luck had a lot of competition against teams in Houston. Not sure what kind of competition Hogan had in DC so maybe it doesn't always hold.

I really feel bad for a gy like Chryst. He's been preparing his whole life to play QB in college and likely in the NFL. He's been highly touted which probably increased his self expectations for success. If Costello truly surpasses him, he'll have to pull together a plan B pretty quick.

[Goose]

There's just no comparison in strength of schedule.  Week in and week out, Costello had a much, much tougher schedule.

I think the first four (Thanks, CTcard) words are the operative ones. It is literally true you can't compare apples and oranges. Costello's stronger competition may have been negated by a better OL, or better coaching, or by being south of San Jose. It also doesn't much matter, as we have both of them. We now just need to choose the one that will win the most games. Those old stats won't help us (at all) to do that, IMHO.

[Goose]

There's just no comparison in strength of schedule.  Week in and week out, Costello had a much, much tougher schedule.

I think the first four (Thanks, CTcard) words are the operative ones. It is literally true you can't compare apples and oranges. Costello's stronger competition may have been negated by a better OL, or better coaching, or by being south of San Jose. It also doesn't much matter, as we have both of them. We now just need to choose the one that will win the most games. Those old stats won't help us (at all) to do that, IMHO.

[CTcard]

[quote author=Mick link=topic=17483.msg202937#msg202937 date=1506434068]
There's just no comparison in strength of schedule.  Week in and week out, Costello had a much, much tougher schedule.

I think the first three words are the operative ones.
[/quote]

Well, strictly speaking I think you need four (or five depending on how you count the contraction) - unless you are making a metaphor that we might as well not have had a QB at all just lately.

[CTcard]

[quote author=Mick link=topic=17483.msg202937#msg202937 date=1506434068]
There's just no comparison in strength of schedule.  Week in and week out, Costello had a much, much tougher schedule.

I think the first three words are the operative ones.
[/quote]

Well, strictly speaking I think you need four (or five depending on how you count the contraction) - unless you are making a metaphor that we might as well not have had a QB at all just lately.

[Mick]

[quote author=Mick link=topic=17483.msg202937#msg202937 date=1506434068]
[quote author=FarmBoy link=topic=17483.msg202911#msg202911 date=1506399519]
[quote author=Goose link=topic=17483.msg202909#msg202909 date=1506397429]
[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=17483.msg202688#msg202688 date=1506301116]
IPlus, Costello had a better completion percentage in high school than Burns or Chryst, against better competition.

I was pretty impressed with this fact, until I looked a bit deeper. Yes, Costello had a higher carer completion percentage than Chryst. HOWEVER, Chryst had a higher quarterback rating than Costello every single year. Chryst also threw for more touchdowns and more yards. For those of you who want to check, look at

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kj-coste...-stats.htm
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/keller-c...-stats.htm

So "cherry-picking" one stat can create a probably misleading impression. What do these stats really mean? Probably very little. I kick myself for paying attention to this red herring. That said, I still hope that they start Costello, but this is a bogus data point.
[/quote]

Can some of that difference be explained by the level of competition they went against? I don't know much about high school football, but I do know the names St. John Bosco, Long Beach Poly, Mater Dei, Oaks Christian, and Servite.

I also recall Chryst underwhelming at the elite 11 camp. True, it's an elite group, but he went in with a very high rating and seemed to drop throughout the week. Perhaps that was a sign that his high rating wasn't as well substantiated?
[/quote]

In his losses, Chryst threw for a 68 rating against St. Francis of Mt. View, a 112 against Mitty and a 94 against Palma.  His remaining opponents were nonentities. 

In his losses, Costello threw for a 66 rating against Mater Dei (chiefly because of 4 INTs, they had no ground game at all), 67 against Servite (2 INTs), 119 against Bosco, 75 against Orange Lutheran, and 59 against Westlake.

After having seen a fair amount of SoCal football and other sports, Mater Dei (Costello's last playoff opponent) is worlds better than St. Francis (Chryst's last playoff opponent).  Costello's running backs gained 5 (five) yards total against Mater Dei.  Costello was 23 of 39 for 346 yards and two TDs with 4 INTs playing for Santa Margarita, a good catholic school, but probably more similar to Palma than Bellarmine or St. Francis.  Costello's two main receivers in high school were Grant Calcaterra (TE) who now does very well for Oklahoma and Kekoa Crawford who is on Michigan's roster.  Costello and Santa Margarita's RBs were tackled 13 times for losses (Costello four sacks for net -23 yards).

Palo Alto had similar inability to run against St. Francis which had seven tackles for loss and four sacks.

Costello and Chryst had similar games against their final playoff opponents.  The big difference?  Santa Margarita's opponents.  Mater Dei was ranked 17th in the country, Servite was #209, Bosco was #4 in the country.  Paly's opponents were St. Francis, who was ranked 1,269th nationally by MaxPreps, Mitty (#334) and Palma (#3,227).  Let's throw in Milpitas (#1,490). 

There's just no comparison in strength of schedule.  Week in and week out, Costello had a much, much tougher schedule.
[/quote]

Thanks for the detailed response, Mick. Perhaps this is truly a case of iron sharpens iron. If Chryst built his rep playing cupcakes, it's not as big a surprise his game didn't translate. I assume that Luck had a lot of competition against teams in Houston. Not sure what kind of competition Hogan had in DC so maybe it doesn't always hold.

I really feel bad for a gy like Chryst. He's been preparing his whole life to play QB in college and likely in the NFL. He's been highly touted which probably increased his self expectations for success. If Costello truly surpasses him, he'll have to pull together a plan B pretty quick.
[/quote]

I think part of the challenge is that as a public school in NorCal, Paly has limits as to the opponents it can schedule.  The WCAL schools schedule some very tough off-season opponents to prepare for their season, but SoCal and NorCal competition is very different.

[Mick]

[quote author=Mick link=topic=17483.msg202937#msg202937 date=1506434068]
[quote author=FarmBoy link=topic=17483.msg202911#msg202911 date=1506399519]
[quote author=Goose link=topic=17483.msg202909#msg202909 date=1506397429]
[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=17483.msg202688#msg202688 date=1506301116]
IPlus, Costello had a better completion percentage in high school than Burns or Chryst, against better competition.

I was pretty impressed with this fact, until I looked a bit deeper. Yes, Costello had a higher carer completion percentage than Chryst. HOWEVER, Chryst had a higher quarterback rating than Costello every single year. Chryst also threw for more touchdowns and more yards. For those of you who want to check, look at

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kj-coste...-stats.htm
http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/keller-c...-stats.htm

So "cherry-picking" one stat can create a probably misleading impression. What do these stats really mean? Probably very little. I kick myself for paying attention to this red herring. That said, I still hope that they start Costello, but this is a bogus data point.
[/quote]

Can some of that difference be explained by the level of competition they went against? I don't know much about high school football, but I do know the names St. John Bosco, Long Beach Poly, Mater Dei, Oaks Christian, and Servite.

I also recall Chryst underwhelming at the elite 11 camp. True, it's an elite group, but he went in with a very high rating and seemed to drop throughout the week. Perhaps that was a sign that his high rating wasn't as well substantiated?
[/quote]

In his losses, Chryst threw for a 68 rating against St. Francis of Mt. View, a 112 against Mitty and a 94 against Palma.  His remaining opponents were nonentities. 

In his losses, Costello threw for a 66 rating against Mater Dei (chiefly because of 4 INTs, they had no ground game at all), 67 against Servite (2 INTs), 119 against Bosco, 75 against Orange Lutheran, and 59 against Westlake.

After having seen a fair amount of SoCal football and other sports, Mater Dei (Costello's last playoff opponent) is worlds better than St. Francis (Chryst's last playoff opponent).  Costello's running backs gained 5 (five) yards total against Mater Dei.  Costello was 23 of 39 for 346 yards and two TDs with 4 INTs playing for Santa Margarita, a good catholic school, but probably more similar to Palma than Bellarmine or St. Francis.  Costello's two main receivers in high school were Grant Calcaterra (TE) who now does very well for Oklahoma and Kekoa Crawford who is on Michigan's roster.  Costello and Santa Margarita's RBs were tackled 13 times for losses (Costello four sacks for net -23 yards).

Palo Alto had similar inability to run against St. Francis which had seven tackles for loss and four sacks.

Costello and Chryst had similar games against their final playoff opponents.  The big difference?  Santa Margarita's opponents.  Mater Dei was ranked 17th in the country, Servite was #209, Bosco was #4 in the country.  Paly's opponents were St. Francis, who was ranked 1,269th nationally by MaxPreps, Mitty (#334) and Palma (#3,227).  Let's throw in Milpitas (#1,490). 

There's just no comparison in strength of schedule.  Week in and week out, Costello had a much, much tougher schedule.
[/quote]

Thanks for the detailed response, Mick. Perhaps this is truly a case of iron sharpens iron. If Chryst built his rep playing cupcakes, it's not as big a surprise his game didn't translate. I assume that Luck had a lot of competition against teams in Houston. Not sure what kind of competition Hogan had in DC so maybe it doesn't always hold.

I really feel bad for a gy like Chryst. He's been preparing his whole life to play QB in college and likely in the NFL. He's been highly touted which probably increased his self expectations for success. If Costello truly surpasses him, he'll have to pull together a plan B pretty quick.
[/quote]

I think part of the challenge is that as a public school in NorCal, Paly has limits as to the opponents it can schedule.  The WCAL schools schedule some very tough off-season opponents to prepare for their season, but SoCal and NorCal competition is very different.

[Goose]

Well, strictly speaking I think you need four (or five depending on how you count the contractino) - unless you are making a metaphor that we might as well not have had a QB at all just lately.

Unfortunately, I was not that clever. I will give you full credit, because indeed it sort of seems that way. In fact, we probably don't yet have one, as we aren't sure about ASU, let alone the rest of the season.

[Goose]

Well, strictly speaking I think you need four (or five depending on how you count the contractino) - unless you are making a metaphor that we might as well not have had a QB at all just lately.

Unfortunately, I was not that clever. I will give you full credit, because indeed it sort of seems that way. In fact, we probably don't yet have one, as we aren't sure about ASU, let alone the rest of the season.