10-27-2017, 08:48 AM
"The only QB who can truly run this offense is Mills."
From an ex-Stanford coach
10-27-2017, 08:58 AM
I feel pretty comfortable saying Davis Mills will never play worse in a game for Stanford than Chryst did in Corvallis on October 26, 2017.
I feel pretty comfortable saying Davis Mills will never play worse in a game for Stanford than Chryst did in Corvallis on October 26, 2017.
10-27-2017, 09:12 AM
(10-27-2017, 08:58 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:I feel pretty comfortable saying Davis Mills will never play worse in a game for Stanford than Chryst did in Corvallis on October 26, 2017.
Or SDSU. At least in Corvallis Chryst made the throws he had to when the game was on the line. With SDSU he couldn't.
(10-27-2017, 08:58 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:I feel pretty comfortable saying Davis Mills will never play worse in a game for Stanford than Chryst did in Corvallis on October 26, 2017.
Or SDSU. At least in Corvallis Chryst made the throws he had to when the game was on the line. With SDSU he couldn't.
10-27-2017, 09:47 AM
(10-27-2017, 09:12 AM)JPRI link Wrote:At least in Corvallis Chryst made the throws he had to when the game was on the line. With SDSU he couldn't.Minor quibble. Without a majorly great defensive play (the strip), and probably a lot of luck(recovering the stripped ball), OSU runs out the clock. It could be well argued that the "must do" series was the one before, and Chryst didn't. No way should Stanford have gotten another shot.
(10-27-2017, 09:12 AM)JPRI link Wrote:At least in Corvallis Chryst made the throws he had to when the game was on the line. With SDSU he couldn't.Minor quibble. Without a majorly great defensive play (the strip), and probably a lot of luck(recovering the stripped ball), OSU runs out the clock. It could be well argued that the "must do" series was the one before, and Chryst didn't. No way should Stanford have gotten another shot.
10-27-2017, 10:39 AM
Has anyone on this board seen Mills play in person? I don't know much about him.
Pax et Bonum
Has anyone on this board seen Mills play in person? I don't know much about him.
Pax et Bonum
10-27-2017, 10:55 AM
Not in person, but here are some highlights from high school:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wpWmGbJL84
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wpWmGbJL84
Not in person, but here are some highlights from high school:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wpWmGbJL84
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wpWmGbJL84
10-27-2017, 11:11 AM
The posts above strike me as the triumph of hope over experience. While it may be true that "the only QB who can truly run this offense is Mills" and that "Mills will never play worse in a game for Stanford than Chryst did in Corvallis on October 26, 2017," will he ever get the chance? And if he does get the chance, will he actually have gotten better by that time?
I like many things about Shaw but I dislike some things as well. One of his greatest weaknesses IMO may be QB evaluation (he passed on Luck but was overridden by Harbaugh, and he passed on Rosen) and "development". I put development in quotes because with only one exception, the pattern has been for Stanford QBs to regress and get worse the longer they are in the system. The exception is Hogan, who was the lowest rated coming out of HS but who got better and better, I believe because he had the qualities in him and not because of coaching. Otherwise, the pattern is ominous. Luck was not as good as a senior as he had been before. Multiple other very highly regarded recruits with elite program offers (Nunes, Nottingham, Burns and now Chryst) either did not progress or actually seemed to regress the longer they were in the program.Â
For the oldtimers on the board, as far as QB coaching goes, is Shaw the second coming of Jack Christiansen?
I like many things about Shaw but I dislike some things as well. One of his greatest weaknesses IMO may be QB evaluation (he passed on Luck but was overridden by Harbaugh, and he passed on Rosen) and "development". I put development in quotes because with only one exception, the pattern has been for Stanford QBs to regress and get worse the longer they are in the system. The exception is Hogan, who was the lowest rated coming out of HS but who got better and better, I believe because he had the qualities in him and not because of coaching. Otherwise, the pattern is ominous. Luck was not as good as a senior as he had been before. Multiple other very highly regarded recruits with elite program offers (Nunes, Nottingham, Burns and now Chryst) either did not progress or actually seemed to regress the longer they were in the program.Â
For the oldtimers on the board, as far as QB coaching goes, is Shaw the second coming of Jack Christiansen?
The posts above strike me as the triumph of hope over experience. While it may be true that "the only QB who can truly run this offense is Mills" and that "Mills will never play worse in a game for Stanford than Chryst did in Corvallis on October 26, 2017," will he ever get the chance? And if he does get the chance, will he actually have gotten better by that time?
I like many things about Shaw but I dislike some things as well. One of his greatest weaknesses IMO may be QB evaluation (he passed on Luck but was overridden by Harbaugh, and he passed on Rosen) and "development". I put development in quotes because with only one exception, the pattern has been for Stanford QBs to regress and get worse the longer they are in the system. The exception is Hogan, who was the lowest rated coming out of HS but who got better and better, I believe because he had the qualities in him and not because of coaching. Otherwise, the pattern is ominous. Luck was not as good as a senior as he had been before. Multiple other very highly regarded recruits with elite program offers (Nunes, Nottingham, Burns and now Chryst) either did not progress or actually seemed to regress the longer they were in the program.Â
For the oldtimers on the board, as far as QB coaching goes, is Shaw the second coming of Jack Christiansen?
I like many things about Shaw but I dislike some things as well. One of his greatest weaknesses IMO may be QB evaluation (he passed on Luck but was overridden by Harbaugh, and he passed on Rosen) and "development". I put development in quotes because with only one exception, the pattern has been for Stanford QBs to regress and get worse the longer they are in the system. The exception is Hogan, who was the lowest rated coming out of HS but who got better and better, I believe because he had the qualities in him and not because of coaching. Otherwise, the pattern is ominous. Luck was not as good as a senior as he had been before. Multiple other very highly regarded recruits with elite program offers (Nunes, Nottingham, Burns and now Chryst) either did not progress or actually seemed to regress the longer they were in the program.Â
For the oldtimers on the board, as far as QB coaching goes, is Shaw the second coming of Jack Christiansen?
10-27-2017, 11:35 AM
(10-27-2017, 11:14 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:Hogan had his best season (on par with Luck) as a senior.
BC
Yeah, Hogan added stuff to his game throughout his career, and turned into a fifth-round draft pick. I don't want to poor-mouth Hogan too much but that strikes me as impressive work given that he doesn't have the biggest arm and is only a good, not great, athlete.
I think Shaw's QB development problem is a bit more subtle: he seems to have great quarterbacks, bad quarterbacks, and no in-between. A bit puzzling given Stanford's generally successful recruiting at the position. If you had, say, perfectly adequate Sean Mannion starting the past two years I'd bet Shaw would have two more wins to his credit in his overall record -- which would bigly enhance Love's H-trophy quest and make the team a decent playoff contender.
(10-27-2017, 11:14 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:Hogan had his best season (on par with Luck) as a senior.
BC
Yeah, Hogan added stuff to his game throughout his career, and turned into a fifth-round draft pick. I don't want to poor-mouth Hogan too much but that strikes me as impressive work given that he doesn't have the biggest arm and is only a good, not great, athlete.
I think Shaw's QB development problem is a bit more subtle: he seems to have great quarterbacks, bad quarterbacks, and no in-between. A bit puzzling given Stanford's generally successful recruiting at the position. If you had, say, perfectly adequate Sean Mannion starting the past two years I'd bet Shaw would have two more wins to his credit in his overall record -- which would bigly enhance Love's H-trophy quest and make the team a decent playoff contender.
10-27-2017, 01:34 PM
(10-27-2017, 11:11 AM)doug link Wrote:he passed on Luck but was overridden by Harbaugh
This is the first I'm hearing about this. From most accounts I've read recruiting was pretty solidly Harbaugh's area, and there wouldn't be anything to overrule.
Anyway I'm not sure "our guy didn't recruit that guy who turned out good" is really a meaningful gauge of anything since QB recruiting is pretty evidently a crapshoot, judging it by results is tricky because of hindsight bias. I think one thing you can say for sure is that you should never, ever skip taking a QB, which Shaw has done (and I think has since realized it was a mistake, since the logic he gave at the time would've meant skipping last year or this year).
(10-27-2017, 11:11 AM)doug link Wrote:he passed on Luck but was overridden by Harbaugh
This is the first I'm hearing about this. From most accounts I've read recruiting was pretty solidly Harbaugh's area, and there wouldn't be anything to overrule.
Anyway I'm not sure "our guy didn't recruit that guy who turned out good" is really a meaningful gauge of anything since QB recruiting is pretty evidently a crapshoot, judging it by results is tricky because of hindsight bias. I think one thing you can say for sure is that you should never, ever skip taking a QB, which Shaw has done (and I think has since realized it was a mistake, since the logic he gave at the time would've meant skipping last year or this year).
10-27-2017, 01:58 PM
(10-27-2017, 01:34 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=doug link=topic=17804.msg208699#msg208699 date=1509127875]he passed on Luck but was overridden by Harbaugh
This is the first I'm hearing about this. From most accounts I've read recruiting was pretty solidly Harbaugh's area, and there wouldn't be anything to overrule.
Anyway I'm not sure "our guy didn't recruit that guy who turned out good" is really a meaningful gauge of anything since QB recruiting is pretty evidently a crapshoot, judging it by results is tricky because of hindsight bias. I think one thing you can say for sure is that you should never, ever skip taking a QB, which Shaw has done (and I think has since realized it was a mistake, since the logic he gave at the time would've meant skipping last year or this year).
[/quote]
Yeah, this story has been floating around for a while. Usually left unsaid is that Luck was like the third choice (or whatever) of Harbaugh; he went after Landry Jones as his first choice IIRC. So, at least insofar as any long-told apocryphal anecdote has credibility, this one does.
Again, I think this reinforces your second point, which is that evaluating, recruiting, and developing quarterbacks is highly variable and you need to take as many raffle tickets as possible. (Indeed, you might properly evaluate and recruit a QB but fail to place him in the proper environment to let him grow. For example I think DeShone Kizer would've been a star in other contexts, as opposed to Brian Kelly's sometimes...iffy coaching.)
(10-27-2017, 01:34 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=doug link=topic=17804.msg208699#msg208699 date=1509127875]he passed on Luck but was overridden by Harbaugh
This is the first I'm hearing about this. From most accounts I've read recruiting was pretty solidly Harbaugh's area, and there wouldn't be anything to overrule.
Anyway I'm not sure "our guy didn't recruit that guy who turned out good" is really a meaningful gauge of anything since QB recruiting is pretty evidently a crapshoot, judging it by results is tricky because of hindsight bias. I think one thing you can say for sure is that you should never, ever skip taking a QB, which Shaw has done (and I think has since realized it was a mistake, since the logic he gave at the time would've meant skipping last year or this year).
[/quote]
Yeah, this story has been floating around for a while. Usually left unsaid is that Luck was like the third choice (or whatever) of Harbaugh; he went after Landry Jones as his first choice IIRC. So, at least insofar as any long-told apocryphal anecdote has credibility, this one does.
Again, I think this reinforces your second point, which is that evaluating, recruiting, and developing quarterbacks is highly variable and you need to take as many raffle tickets as possible. (Indeed, you might properly evaluate and recruit a QB but fail to place him in the proper environment to let him grow. For example I think DeShone Kizer would've been a star in other contexts, as opposed to Brian Kelly's sometimes...iffy coaching.)
10-27-2017, 04:53 PM
(10-27-2017, 11:08 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:I think slide might have. He's out in Georgia.
BC
only once in person as a JR iirc. I watched a lot of his SR games on tv. very high on him. really good pocket presence, good release, throws receivers only, doesn't force the ball (i.e. avoids INTs). I just hope he is and can stay healthy.
(10-27-2017, 11:08 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:I think slide might have. He's out in Georgia.
BC
only once in person as a JR iirc. I watched a lot of his SR games on tv. very high on him. really good pocket presence, good release, throws receivers only, doesn't force the ball (i.e. avoids INTs). I just hope he is and can stay healthy.
10-27-2017, 05:21 PM
(10-27-2017, 04:53 PM)slide link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17804.msg208698#msg208698 date=1509127738]
I think slide might have. He's out in Georgia.
BC
only once in person as a JR iirc. I watched a lot of his SR games on tv. very high on him. really good pocket presence, good release, throws receivers only, doesn't force the ball (i.e. avoids INTs). I just hope he is and can stay healthy.
[/quote]
I assume that's supposed to be "open", correct?
(10-27-2017, 04:53 PM)slide link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17804.msg208698#msg208698 date=1509127738]
I think slide might have. He's out in Georgia.
BC
only once in person as a JR iirc. I watched a lot of his SR games on tv. very high on him. really good pocket presence, good release, throws receivers only, doesn't force the ball (i.e. avoids INTs). I just hope he is and can stay healthy.
[/quote]
I assume that's supposed to be "open", correct?
10-27-2017, 06:01 PM
(10-27-2017, 04:53 PM)slide link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17804.msg208698#msg208698 date=1509127738]
I think slide might have. He's out in Georgia.
BC
only once in person as a JR iirc. I watched a lot of his SR games on tv. very high on him. really good pocket presence, good release, throws receivers only, doesn't force the ball (i.e. avoids INTs). I just hope he is and can stay healthy.
[/quote]
Damned. I was hoping he'd throw footballs too.
BC
(10-27-2017, 04:53 PM)slide link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17804.msg208698#msg208698 date=1509127738]
I think slide might have. He's out in Georgia.
BC
only once in person as a JR iirc. I watched a lot of his SR games on tv. very high on him. really good pocket presence, good release, throws receivers only, doesn't force the ball (i.e. avoids INTs). I just hope he is and can stay healthy.
[/quote]
Damned. I was hoping he'd throw footballs too.
BC
10-27-2017, 08:30 PM
(10-27-2017, 11:35 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17804.msg208700#msg208700 date=1509128054]
Hogan had his best season (on par with Luck) as a senior.
BC
Yeah, Hogan added stuff to his game throughout his career, and turned into a fifth-round draft pick. I don't want to poor-mouth Hogan too much but that strikes me as impressive work given that he doesn't have the biggest arm and is only a good, not great, athlete.
I think Shaw's QB development problem is a bit more subtle: he seems to have great quarterbacks, bad quarterbacks, and no in-between. A bit puzzling given Stanford's generally successful recruiting at the position. If you had, say, perfectly adequate Sean Mannion starting the past two years I'd bet Shaw would have two more wins to his credit in his overall record -- which would bigly enhance Love's H-trophy quest and make the team a decent playoff contender.
[/quote]
Sean Mannion was drafted in the 3rd round and is still in the league. I'd say he was far better than adequate as a P12 QB. I'd be happy if we had that level every year too.
(10-27-2017, 11:35 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=17804.msg208700#msg208700 date=1509128054]
Hogan had his best season (on par with Luck) as a senior.
BC
Yeah, Hogan added stuff to his game throughout his career, and turned into a fifth-round draft pick. I don't want to poor-mouth Hogan too much but that strikes me as impressive work given that he doesn't have the biggest arm and is only a good, not great, athlete.
I think Shaw's QB development problem is a bit more subtle: he seems to have great quarterbacks, bad quarterbacks, and no in-between. A bit puzzling given Stanford's generally successful recruiting at the position. If you had, say, perfectly adequate Sean Mannion starting the past two years I'd bet Shaw would have two more wins to his credit in his overall record -- which would bigly enhance Love's H-trophy quest and make the team a decent playoff contender.
[/quote]
Sean Mannion was drafted in the 3rd round and is still in the league. I'd say he was far better than adequate as a P12 QB. I'd be happy if we had that level every year too.
10-27-2017, 08:33 PM
(10-27-2017, 11:35 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:I think Shaw's QB development problem is a bit more subtle: he seems to have great quarterbacks, bad quarterbacks, and no in-between.I respectfully disagree. Chryst is a mediocre QB. He can lead this team to an 8- or 9-win season but that's the top end. And doubtful a team he leads would win fewer than 6.
(10-27-2017, 11:35 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:I think Shaw's QB development problem is a bit more subtle: he seems to have great quarterbacks, bad quarterbacks, and no in-between.I respectfully disagree. Chryst is a mediocre QB. He can lead this team to an 8- or 9-win season but that's the top end. And doubtful a team he leads would win fewer than 6.
10-27-2017, 08:41 PM
(10-27-2017, 08:30 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Sean Mannion was drafted in the 3rd round and is still in the league. I'd say he was far better than adequate as a P12 QB. I'd be happy if we had that level every year too.
To be honest...I don't really take NFL evaluations of QBs terribly seriously. They seem very rules-obsessed (let's find a tall dude!) and don't really explore beyond their preferred archetypes. Mannion fits 'em so, pick 'em high! Mannion had a 7.4 yards per attempt for his career, and a 135 QB rating -- which is practically the dictionary definition of "average."
Like, Cody Kessler and Mannion were both 3rd round picks. But I'd take Hogan over both of them in a second.
(10-27-2017, 08:30 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Sean Mannion was drafted in the 3rd round and is still in the league. I'd say he was far better than adequate as a P12 QB. I'd be happy if we had that level every year too.
To be honest...I don't really take NFL evaluations of QBs terribly seriously. They seem very rules-obsessed (let's find a tall dude!) and don't really explore beyond their preferred archetypes. Mannion fits 'em so, pick 'em high! Mannion had a 7.4 yards per attempt for his career, and a 135 QB rating -- which is practically the dictionary definition of "average."
Like, Cody Kessler and Mannion were both 3rd round picks. But I'd take Hogan over both of them in a second.
10-27-2017, 08:53 PM
I think Hogan had an extraordinary senior season. I think his other seasons were merely good (not great). Using PER as an ok proxy for effectiveness, Hogan's PER was 151 in 2013 and 145 in 2014. That's good for 21st and 25th in the country, respectively. That's comparable to Brett Hundley in 2013 and Taylor Kelly in 2014. Good, solid QB's but definitely a step below the top QB's in the NCAA. It was only in 2015, when he had a PER of 171, just behind Baker Mayfield, that Hogan was really great.
Mannion, by the way, was 28th in the country in 2013 with a PER of 147, not all that dissimilar for Hogan his first three years here.
BC
Mannion, by the way, was 28th in the country in 2013 with a PER of 147, not all that dissimilar for Hogan his first three years here.
BC
I think Hogan had an extraordinary senior season. I think his other seasons were merely good (not great). Using PER as an ok proxy for effectiveness, Hogan's PER was 151 in 2013 and 145 in 2014. That's good for 21st and 25th in the country, respectively. That's comparable to Brett Hundley in 2013 and Taylor Kelly in 2014. Good, solid QB's but definitely a step below the top QB's in the NCAA. It was only in 2015, when he had a PER of 171, just behind Baker Mayfield, that Hogan was really great.
Mannion, by the way, was 28th in the country in 2013 with a PER of 147, not all that dissimilar for Hogan his first three years here.
BC
Mannion, by the way, was 28th in the country in 2013 with a PER of 147, not all that dissimilar for Hogan his first three years here.
BC
10-27-2017, 09:09 PM
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Shaw already knows that Mills is the second coming of Andrew Luck and that Mills will be his quarterback next year. Would that in any way affect Shaw's behavior this year, who he plays between Chryst and Costello, etc.?
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