12-07-2017, 09:43 AM
(12-07-2017, 08:54 AM)Remy74 link Wrote:Many project him to be the 2nd-3rd RB drafted in 2018 [in the 1st or 2nd round]. If he runs 4.3x, this will likely be solidified. There is not major improvement to be gained by returning to college. If anything, as a RB, his draft stock will drop due to an additional year of punishment in college as a RB only has so many carries in his body.I agree, but for other reasons. First, will Love have a better year next year than this year? This year, he put up some monster, unheard of numbers. Yes, they would have been better numbers if he was not injured, but is it probable that he will beat those numbers next year? Probably not a good bet. There is some "regression to the mean" expectation here. There are many forces, like KJ's improvement, that may result in Love putting up smaller numbers while actually being as good or better next year than this year. Worse still, like CMAC, he will be measured against what he did this year. If he doesn't do quite as well, it will be labeled "failure".
Second, if he does get hurt again, he will for sure get the "injury prone" tag hung on him. For a smaller sized guy, that is a disaster. His size already works against him. Couple that with a (bogus or not) "fragile" label, his draft stock really drops. The probability of a running back getting "dinged up" is pretty high. Not worth the risk because the downside is much greater than the potential benefit.
Love may not agree with the above evaluation. It is also possible that he agrees with the evaluation, fully understands the risks, and comes back anyway. If he does come back, in my opinion it will not be to improve his draft stock. It will be because he thinks he can help the team, he wants to graduate, and he likes being at Stanford.Â
