12-16-2017, 02:08 PM
We've been devoting a lot of brainspace recently to whether the Stanford offense is fragile, or not, and if so, how it might be corrected. However, I wonder if the fragility has been healed recently.
As we all know, Bryce Love spent the latter half of the season injured. That injury meant his recent performances were among the most impressive by a Stanford running back. But I think it's worth dwelling on an important analytical distinction: that aesthetics don't equal effectiveness. That is, we recognize certain athletic performances as rich, inspiring, cool ones for certain aesthetic reasons -- but it doesn't mean they're actually, objectively, when you rank it, effective.
As a shorthand: Willis Reed only had four points in his famous Game 7 performance on a torn thigh muscle. An amazing display of human perseverance? Yes. But, analytically, only a modest boost to performance. That is, Reed might have boosted the Knicks over the top (and is worth celebrating) but it wasn't in of itself a terribly comprehensive performance.
Love was a hell of a lot more impactful than Reed during the latter half of the season, but the Stanford running game was not all that effective down the stretch. Love had 586 yards down the stretch for 117 yards per game -- good, but not in of themselves overwhelming performances. And he carried the ball 20.4 times per game.
Yet the offense was pretty effective on the whole. BCFtoys' game ratings rank every game during that time above the 61st percentile. Obviously losing Love will be a problem, but Stanford's production since Costello began starting suggests it might be less difficult to replace him than a casual viewer would think.
As we all know, Bryce Love spent the latter half of the season injured. That injury meant his recent performances were among the most impressive by a Stanford running back. But I think it's worth dwelling on an important analytical distinction: that aesthetics don't equal effectiveness. That is, we recognize certain athletic performances as rich, inspiring, cool ones for certain aesthetic reasons -- but it doesn't mean they're actually, objectively, when you rank it, effective.
As a shorthand: Willis Reed only had four points in his famous Game 7 performance on a torn thigh muscle. An amazing display of human perseverance? Yes. But, analytically, only a modest boost to performance. That is, Reed might have boosted the Knicks over the top (and is worth celebrating) but it wasn't in of itself a terribly comprehensive performance.
Love was a hell of a lot more impactful than Reed during the latter half of the season, but the Stanford running game was not all that effective down the stretch. Love had 586 yards down the stretch for 117 yards per game -- good, but not in of themselves overwhelming performances. And he carried the ball 20.4 times per game.
Yet the offense was pretty effective on the whole. BCFtoys' game ratings rank every game during that time above the 61st percentile. Obviously losing Love will be a problem, but Stanford's production since Costello began starting suggests it might be less difficult to replace him than a casual viewer would think.
