[yvonne]

The writer of this Stanford preview claims his name Bill Connolly, but I suspect it's Terry writing under an assumed name with a fake photo and bio.

http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/20...l-football

[yvonne]

The writer of this Stanford preview claims his name Bill Connolly, but I suspect it's Terry writing under an assumed name with a fake photo and bio.

http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/20...l-football

[terry]

Pretty good analysis in the narrative. But some of the quantitative analysis is impenetrable to me. I don't see how we can pitch a shutout against UCLA, yet give up 26 "adjusted points." How do you adjust a shutout? And we apparently had an "adjusted" loss to WSU because of some garbage time TDs, which doesn't make a lot of sense. But at least we had an "adjusted" win over Oregon, so we have that going for us. . .

[terry]

Pretty good analysis in the narrative. But some of the quantitative analysis is impenetrable to me. I don't see how we can pitch a shutout against UCLA, yet give up 26 "adjusted points." How do you adjust a shutout? And we apparently had an "adjusted" loss to WSU because of some garbage time TDs, which doesn't make a lot of sense. But at least we had an "adjusted" win over Oregon, so we have that going for us. . .

[washingtonismoney]

I'm guessing they're adjusting for yards or yards/play (and adjusting for average luck in fumbles recovered, for example), and then inferring what the score "should" be.

[washingtonismoney]

I'm guessing they're adjusting for yards or yards/play (and adjusting for average luck in fumbles recovered, for example), and then inferring what the score "should" be.

[Leftcoast]

How's a shutout ever get adjusted to a loss no matter what formula you use? 

I remember watching the game and thinking Stanford was very lucky to hold on to the shutout as the UCLA QB squandered opportunity after opportunity.    Regardless, it was clear to everyone watching that the best team won.

[Leftcoast]

How's a shutout ever get adjusted to a loss no matter what formula you use? 

I remember watching the game and thinking Stanford was very lucky to hold on to the shutout as the UCLA QB squandered opportunity after opportunity.    Regardless, it was clear to everyone watching that the best team won.

[yvonne]

Maybe Stanford should have allowed fewer than 0 points.  ;)

[yvonne]

Maybe Stanford should have allowed fewer than 0 points.  ;)

[Redrum]

the whole concept is just silly.

At least betting lines have some tiny thread of legitimate methodology.  The bets for and against the margin of victory and defeat are validation by a real population of risk takers.  Statistically at least it has some anchor in reality.      These 'adjustments' sound like a bunch of teenagers trying to renegotiate their own ability factors of  EA Sports NCAA Football video game.

[Redrum]

the whole concept is just silly.

At least betting lines have some tiny thread of legitimate methodology.  The bets for and against the margin of victory and defeat are validation by a real population of risk takers.  Statistically at least it has some anchor in reality.      These 'adjustments' sound like a bunch of teenagers trying to renegotiate their own ability factors of  EA Sports NCAA Football video game.

[yvonne]

OK, I confess. I wrote the headline after looking at the quantity of stats and charts, without actually reading them.

Terry would never post something with such thoroughly illogical results.

[yvonne]

OK, I confess. I wrote the headline after looking at the quantity of stats and charts, without actually reading them.

Terry would never post something with such thoroughly illogical results.