[Farm93]

Oh,
That's it.  

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/usc-rev...to-campus/

That probably kills Pac-12 football right here.  Few in-person classes should mean no sports per the NCAA's discussions earlier in the year.   Pac-12 is not going to have a football season without USC.   Can't imagine the Pac-12 will have any sports without USC, but I guess we need a couple of days for that to become final.

COVID wins again.

This is just the beginning of the pain we will all experience from not properly spending the time to crush the curve.
By mid-October worrying about a football season will seem like a quaint trivial matter.

Those that do not recognize the health crisis is the core issue are doomed to learn COVID's power until they get it.   Get ready for SiP 2.0.   I sure wish we would use the down time better this round, but there is no way CA can go into the fall pretending we have found a new normal if COVID cases are out of control in the state's largest city and county.

And if this is CA's reality, I fear for what could happen in other places where the state's politicians are not prepared to acknowledge the fundamental power of COVID to destroy lives and livelihoods.

I tried to find a link that was not tied to subscriptions, but better coverage is available for those with access to some of the Southern California newspaper sites.

[Farm93]

Oh,
That's it.  

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/usc-rev...to-campus/

That probably kills Pac-12 football right here.  Few in-person classes should mean no sports per the NCAA's discussions earlier in the year.   Pac-12 is not going to have a football season without USC.   Can't imagine the Pac-12 will have any sports without USC, but I guess we need a couple of days for that to become final.

COVID wins again.

This is just the beginning of the pain we will all experience from not properly spending the time to crush the curve.
By mid-October worrying about a football season will seem like a quaint trivial matter.

Those that do not recognize the health crisis is the core issue are doomed to learn COVID's power until they get it.   Get ready for SiP 2.0.   I sure wish we would use the down time better this round, but there is no way CA can go into the fall pretending we have found a new normal if COVID cases are out of control in the state's largest city and county.

And if this is CA's reality, I fear for what could happen in other places where the state's politicians are not prepared to acknowledge the fundamental power of COVID to destroy lives and livelihoods.

I tried to find a link that was not tied to subscriptions, but better coverage is available for those with access to some of the Southern California newspaper sites.

[Goose]

Those that do not recognize the health crisis is the core issue are doomed to learn COVID's power until they get it.   Get ready for SiP 2.0. 

That may be the optimistic scenario. It may be that SIP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible. The next question would be if it is deemed possible, would the population do better or worse? After that, would we be able to reopen without losing contain? Right now, it is very unclear to me that we can beat this with "the hammer and the dance". We keep missing with the hammer and nobody appears to be really ready to dance.

[Goose]

Those that do not recognize the health crisis is the core issue are doomed to learn COVID's power until they get it.   Get ready for SiP 2.0. 

That may be the optimistic scenario. It may be that SIP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible. The next question would be if it is deemed possible, would the population do better or worse? After that, would we be able to reopen without losing contain? Right now, it is very unclear to me that we can beat this with "the hammer and the dance". We keep missing with the hammer and nobody appears to be really ready to dance.

[Farm93]

Those that do not recognize the health crisis is the core issue are doomed to learn COVID's power until they get it.   Get ready for SiP 2.0. 

That may be the optimistic scenario. It may be that SIP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible. The next question would be if it is deemed possible, would the population do better or worse? After that, would we be able to reopen without losing contain? Right now, it is very unclear to me that we can beat this with "the hammer and the dance". We keep missing with the hammer and nobody appears to be really ready to dance.

SiP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible, that's why I believe it is coming.

Too many are defeatist at this point.  They just assume our new normal is to have the equivalent of a Stanford Stadium worth of new cases each day, and therefore they don't even try to slow the spread.   If more and more just give up the battle then at some point someone with real authority will have to attempt 2.0 for the good of the nation.

The Alabama Coronavirus parties might exemplify the challenge now.  The idea they exist suggests we need to do a bit more on science and medicine education for our children in the future, and need to require a national shelter in place ASAP.   No questions, no debates, get in your homes for 90 days or else we will get those Italian mayors to yell at you.

My guess is we don't do it at the USA until 2021, but we probably will try a second SiP in CA in mid-July.    Public schools can't open with this rate of new cases in the state.   If schools are not open in the fall, then the economy grinds to a halt anyway as parents would be forced to allocate their time to serving as at home teachers again.

[Farm93]

Those that do not recognize the health crisis is the core issue are doomed to learn COVID's power until they get it.   Get ready for SiP 2.0. 

That may be the optimistic scenario. It may be that SIP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible. The next question would be if it is deemed possible, would the population do better or worse? After that, would we be able to reopen without losing contain? Right now, it is very unclear to me that we can beat this with "the hammer and the dance". We keep missing with the hammer and nobody appears to be really ready to dance.

SiP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible, that's why I believe it is coming.

Too many are defeatist at this point.  They just assume our new normal is to have the equivalent of a Stanford Stadium worth of new cases each day, and therefore they don't even try to slow the spread.   If more and more just give up the battle then at some point someone with real authority will have to attempt 2.0 for the good of the nation.

The Alabama Coronavirus parties might exemplify the challenge now.  The idea they exist suggests we need to do a bit more on science and medicine education for our children in the future, and need to require a national shelter in place ASAP.   No questions, no debates, get in your homes for 90 days or else we will get those Italian mayors to yell at you.

My guess is we don't do it at the USA until 2021, but we probably will try a second SiP in CA in mid-July.    Public schools can't open with this rate of new cases in the state.   If schools are not open in the fall, then the economy grinds to a halt anyway as parents would be forced to allocate their time to serving as at home teachers again.

[Goose]

SiP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible, that's why I believe it is coming.

Too many are defeatist at this point.  They just assume our new normal is to have the equivalent of a Stanford Stadium worth of new cases each day, and therefore they don't even try to slow the spread.   If more and more just give up the battle then at some point someone with real authority will have to attempt 2.0 for the good of the nation.

The Alabama Coronavirus parties might exemplify the challenge now.  The idea they exist suggests we need to do a bit more on science and medicine education for our children in the future, and need to require a national shelter in place ASAP.   No questions, no debates, get in your homes for 90 days or else we will get those Italian mayors to yell at you.

The Federal Government has no authority to do such a thing, but if they advocated it strongly enough the States would (probably) comply. However, the mayors yelling wasn't enough (and be aware that one of the "mayors" in the video was actually the governor  of Campagna). It took troops in the streets (and those troops are still there). You still need paperwork to cross state lines. Previously you needed it to be more than 5k from home. Same thing in France. Does Newsom have that kind of resolve? I doubt it, and even if he did I don't think the rest of the politicians would support him.

I think the far more probable scenarios are a) we limp along as is for a long time, and then go pure Sweden, or b) we do what it takes to set up a very large and draconian track and trace program. That program would have wide enforcement power and would use it. That would be more politically palatable because it would affect many fewer people. Really, if the population doesn't want to cooperate adequately in flattening the curve, that is the only choice that could work IMHO.

The third scenario is what Trump bet on, namely that we get lucky. So far, isn't looking good.

[Goose]

SiP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible, that's why I believe it is coming.

Too many are defeatist at this point.  They just assume our new normal is to have the equivalent of a Stanford Stadium worth of new cases each day, and therefore they don't even try to slow the spread.   If more and more just give up the battle then at some point someone with real authority will have to attempt 2.0 for the good of the nation.

The Alabama Coronavirus parties might exemplify the challenge now.  The idea they exist suggests we need to do a bit more on science and medicine education for our children in the future, and need to require a national shelter in place ASAP.   No questions, no debates, get in your homes for 90 days or else we will get those Italian mayors to yell at you.

The Federal Government has no authority to do such a thing, but if they advocated it strongly enough the States would (probably) comply. However, the mayors yelling wasn't enough (and be aware that one of the "mayors" in the video was actually the governor  of Campagna). It took troops in the streets (and those troops are still there). You still need paperwork to cross state lines. Previously you needed it to be more than 5k from home. Same thing in France. Does Newsom have that kind of resolve? I doubt it, and even if he did I don't think the rest of the politicians would support him.

I think the far more probable scenarios are a) we limp along as is for a long time, and then go pure Sweden, or b) we do what it takes to set up a very large and draconian track and trace program. That program would have wide enforcement power and would use it. That would be more politically palatable because it would affect many fewer people. Really, if the population doesn't want to cooperate adequately in flattening the curve, that is the only choice that could work IMHO.

The third scenario is what Trump bet on, namely that we get lucky. So far, isn't looking good.

[Farm93]

SiP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible, that's why I believe it is coming.

Too many are defeatist at this point.  They just assume our new normal is to have the equivalent of a Stanford Stadium worth of new cases each day, and therefore they don't even try to slow the spread.   If more and more just give up the battle then at some point someone with real authority will have to attempt 2.0 for the good of the nation.

The Alabama Coronavirus parties might exemplify the challenge now.  The idea they exist suggests we need to do a bit more on science and medicine education for our children in the future, and need to require a national shelter in place ASAP.   No questions, no debates, get in your homes for 90 days or else we will get those Italian mayors to yell at you.

The Federal Government has no authority to do such a thing, but if they advocated it strongly enough the States would (probably) comply. However, the mayors yelling wasn't enough (and be aware that one of the "mayors" in the video was actually the governor  of Campagna). It took troops in the streets (and those troops are still there). You still need paperwork to cross state lines. Previously you needed it to be more than 5k from home. Same thing in France. Does Newsom have that kind of resolve? I doubt it, and even if he did I don't think the rest of the politicians would support him.

I think the far more probable scenarios are a) we limp along as is for a long time, and then go pure Sweden, or b) we do what it takes to set up a very large and draconian track and trace program. That program would have wide enforcement power and would use it. That would be more politically palatable because it would affect many fewer people. Really, if the population doesn't want to cooperate adequately in flattening the curve, that is the only choice that could work IMHO.

The third scenario is what Trump bet on, namely that we get lucky. So far, isn't looking good.

Goose, yes we all know the states have the final power.   Like any POTUS, President Trump can influence that direction and encourage everyone to pick a successful path rather than pray for a miracle.

President Trump could get up in an Oval Office speech and request every state with more than set up Shelter in Place orders between July 3 and August 15.  Why?   Because we just can't continue to risk the viability of the upcoming school year.   Most adults will sacrifice if it is for their kids. 

His authority would be to recommend a single course of action, request compliance and offer incentives, potentially through executive orders, to get that behavior.  

It would also not necessarily need to come from him.   The CDC has the power to do far more in than they have done to date too.

Ultimately, we will keep making choices that leave us isolated with loads of deaths until we realize that is a bad place to be for economic health and growth because fundamentally this is not an economic crisis.   It is a health crisis.

As they say in medicine...don't treat the symptoms (economics), treat the cause (pandemic).  

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

[Farm93]

SiP 2.0 is believed to be politically impossible, that's why I believe it is coming.

Too many are defeatist at this point.  They just assume our new normal is to have the equivalent of a Stanford Stadium worth of new cases each day, and therefore they don't even try to slow the spread.   If more and more just give up the battle then at some point someone with real authority will have to attempt 2.0 for the good of the nation.

The Alabama Coronavirus parties might exemplify the challenge now.  The idea they exist suggests we need to do a bit more on science and medicine education for our children in the future, and need to require a national shelter in place ASAP.   No questions, no debates, get in your homes for 90 days or else we will get those Italian mayors to yell at you.

The Federal Government has no authority to do such a thing, but if they advocated it strongly enough the States would (probably) comply. However, the mayors yelling wasn't enough (and be aware that one of the "mayors" in the video was actually the governor  of Campagna). It took troops in the streets (and those troops are still there). You still need paperwork to cross state lines. Previously you needed it to be more than 5k from home. Same thing in France. Does Newsom have that kind of resolve? I doubt it, and even if he did I don't think the rest of the politicians would support him.

I think the far more probable scenarios are a) we limp along as is for a long time, and then go pure Sweden, or b) we do what it takes to set up a very large and draconian track and trace program. That program would have wide enforcement power and would use it. That would be more politically palatable because it would affect many fewer people. Really, if the population doesn't want to cooperate adequately in flattening the curve, that is the only choice that could work IMHO.

The third scenario is what Trump bet on, namely that we get lucky. So far, isn't looking good.

Goose, yes we all know the states have the final power.   Like any POTUS, President Trump can influence that direction and encourage everyone to pick a successful path rather than pray for a miracle.

President Trump could get up in an Oval Office speech and request every state with more than set up Shelter in Place orders between July 3 and August 15.  Why?   Because we just can't continue to risk the viability of the upcoming school year.   Most adults will sacrifice if it is for their kids. 

His authority would be to recommend a single course of action, request compliance and offer incentives, potentially through executive orders, to get that behavior.  

It would also not necessarily need to come from him.   The CDC has the power to do far more in than they have done to date too.

Ultimately, we will keep making choices that leave us isolated with loads of deaths until we realize that is a bad place to be for economic health and growth because fundamentally this is not an economic crisis.   It is a health crisis.

As they say in medicine...don't treat the symptoms (economics), treat the cause (pandemic).  

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

[Goose]

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

Indeed it would. I do not expect that to happen, but it would be great if it did. However, since the place where the rubber will meet the road is at the County and State level, that is where I think the focus of concern should be. You and I both agree (I think) that the State of California opened up way too early. If we are to reverse that and have SIP 2.0 one has to believe that a)Newsom will issue such an order, b) It will be complied with adequately and/or enforced adequately, and c) the above will result in a low enough case load that California will reopen successfully. I personally believe a is possible. Newsom might issue such an order. I question seriously whether b is possible. I don't think Newsom or the Counties have any plans to enforce anything. They will rely mostly on voluntary compliance. Unless a much better sell job with a plausible end game is presented to the public, they won't get that compliance, IMHO.

Even if they do a good sell job, I believe that the odds will be heavily against them. The attitude will be "Did that, didn't work, not going to do it again". That is why I believe contact tracing and tracking with the associated teeth is the only hope. It doesn't require perfect compliance until/unless you get COVID-19. Then forcing people who are positive and their contacts to comply would only affect less than 1% of the population. That may be politically feasible. Yes, everybody else would need social distancing and masks, but not full SIP. That possibly could be made to work. SIP 2.0, I don't think can.

[Goose]

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

Indeed it would. I do not expect that to happen, but it would be great if it did. However, since the place where the rubber will meet the road is at the County and State level, that is where I think the focus of concern should be. You and I both agree (I think) that the State of California opened up way too early. If we are to reverse that and have SIP 2.0 one has to believe that a)Newsom will issue such an order, b) It will be complied with adequately and/or enforced adequately, and c) the above will result in a low enough case load that California will reopen successfully. I personally believe a is possible. Newsom might issue such an order. I question seriously whether b is possible. I don't think Newsom or the Counties have any plans to enforce anything. They will rely mostly on voluntary compliance. Unless a much better sell job with a plausible end game is presented to the public, they won't get that compliance, IMHO.

Even if they do a good sell job, I believe that the odds will be heavily against them. The attitude will be "Did that, didn't work, not going to do it again". That is why I believe contact tracing and tracking with the associated teeth is the only hope. It doesn't require perfect compliance until/unless you get COVID-19. Then forcing people who are positive and their contacts to comply would only affect less than 1% of the population. That may be politically feasible. Yes, everybody else would need social distancing and masks, but not full SIP. That possibly could be made to work. SIP 2.0, I don't think can.

[Mick]

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

I think we're headed for door #3, brother.  At that point, our COVID-19 ship will have run aground.

[Mick]

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

I think we're headed for door #3, brother.  At that point, our COVID-19 ship will have run aground.

[Farm93]

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

I think we're headed for door #3, brother.  At that point, our COVID-19 ship will have run aground.

Door #3 is quite a bit down the road.   I know that is where we are headed and it makes me very sad.

I am also distressed by the idea that a very good vaccine might have an efficacy rate of 60% or 70%, and the USA will be one of the few places where the vaccine lives on for a number of years because of our relatively large anti-vaccination population.

Sorry to be a big downer today, but getting a parent review of the CIF COVID rules and the general COVID action plan yesterday was depressing.  

I was led to believe the COVID plan for schools was similar and that was also depressing.

There were so many flaws and obvious gaps that it was hard to imagine it will work even if everyone uses PPE and avoids unnecessary social contact.

My concerns included - 
Incentives to discount, dismiss or hide possible symptoms by parents and students
Insufficient timely access to MDs in my area
MDs certain lack of interest to schedule student health checks all day,
MD visit copay costs for families with few resources
Impact of uninsured students and families on the plan
Limited number of COVID tests in CA
Turnaround time for test results

At the end of the parent team meeting I was just so devastated because what I saw was the best case plan for student-athletes in CA and probably the school district too. 

I left that Zoom meeting suspecting that while everyone is trying hard in my school district, the USA system has too many gaps in healthcare and COVID management for the academic year to be completed without large periods of virtual learning.  

Big downer - sorry everyone - 

Go Card!
Oh, and avoid visiting Southern California, the region and the school, for the next few months

[Farm93]

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

I think we're headed for door #3, brother.  At that point, our COVID-19 ship will have run aground.

Door #3 is quite a bit down the road.   I know that is where we are headed and it makes me very sad.

I am also distressed by the idea that a very good vaccine might have an efficacy rate of 60% or 70%, and the USA will be one of the few places where the vaccine lives on for a number of years because of our relatively large anti-vaccination population.

Sorry to be a big downer today, but getting a parent review of the CIF COVID rules and the general COVID action plan yesterday was depressing.  

I was led to believe the COVID plan for schools was similar and that was also depressing.

There were so many flaws and obvious gaps that it was hard to imagine it will work even if everyone uses PPE and avoids unnecessary social contact.

My concerns included - 
Incentives to discount, dismiss or hide possible symptoms by parents and students
Insufficient timely access to MDs in my area
MDs certain lack of interest to schedule student health checks all day,
MD visit copay costs for families with few resources
Impact of uninsured students and families on the plan
Limited number of COVID tests in CA
Turnaround time for test results

At the end of the parent team meeting I was just so devastated because what I saw was the best case plan for student-athletes in CA and probably the school district too. 

I left that Zoom meeting suspecting that while everyone is trying hard in my school district, the USA system has too many gaps in healthcare and COVID management for the academic year to be completed without large periods of virtual learning.  

Big downer - sorry everyone - 

Go Card!
Oh, and avoid visiting Southern California, the region and the school, for the next few months

[akiddoc]

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

I think we're headed for door #3, brother.  At that point, our COVID-19 ship will have run aground.

Door #3 is quite a bit down the road.   I know that is where we are headed and it makes me very sad.

I am also distressed by the idea that a very good vaccine might have an efficacy rate of 60% or 70%, and the USA will be one of the few places where the vaccine lives on for a number of years because of our relatively large anti-vaccination population.

Sorry to be a big downer today, but getting a parent review of the CIF COVID rules and the general COVID action plan yesterday was depressing.  

I was led to believe the COVID plan for schools was similar and that was also depressing.

There were so many flaws and obvious gaps that it was hard to imagine it will work even if everyone uses PPE and avoids unnecessary social contact.

My concerns included - 
Incentives to discount, dismiss or hide possible symptoms by parents and students
Insufficient timely access to MDs in my area
MDs certain lack of interest to schedule student health checks all day,
MD visit copay costs for families with few resources
Impact of uninsured students and families on the plan
Limited number of COVID tests in CA
Turnaround time for test results

At the end of the parent team meeting I was just so devastated because what I saw was the best case plan for student-athletes in CA and probably the school district too. 

I left that Zoom meeting suspecting that while everyone is trying hard in my school district, the USA system has too many gaps in healthcare and COVID management for the academic year to be completed without large periods of virtual learning.  

Big downer - sorry everyone - 

Go Card!
Oh, and avoid visiting Southern California, the region and the school, for the next few months

There will not be a lack of interest among Pediatricians in doing health checks all day. Most medical practices are in danger of going under, especially Pediatric practices. Any business at all will make them happy.
It is difficult to NOT have medical coverage in California right now. And if you don't have coverage, you can go to a community clinic and get everything done at a rate commensurate with your income. We do sports checks including vaccines for as little as $25 and for a maximum of $125 at my community clinic job.
We can test far more patients in both of my jobs than we are currently testing. Capacity is high at this time.
We're turning Covid tests around in 12 hours at my clinic job and 18 hours at my other job. Maybe that isn't the situation where you are, but in Alameda County it's quick.

[akiddoc]

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

I think we're headed for door #3, brother.  At that point, our COVID-19 ship will have run aground.

Door #3 is quite a bit down the road.   I know that is where we are headed and it makes me very sad.

I am also distressed by the idea that a very good vaccine might have an efficacy rate of 60% or 70%, and the USA will be one of the few places where the vaccine lives on for a number of years because of our relatively large anti-vaccination population.

Sorry to be a big downer today, but getting a parent review of the CIF COVID rules and the general COVID action plan yesterday was depressing.  

I was led to believe the COVID plan for schools was similar and that was also depressing.

There were so many flaws and obvious gaps that it was hard to imagine it will work even if everyone uses PPE and avoids unnecessary social contact.

My concerns included - 
Incentives to discount, dismiss or hide possible symptoms by parents and students
Insufficient timely access to MDs in my area
MDs certain lack of interest to schedule student health checks all day,
MD visit copay costs for families with few resources
Impact of uninsured students and families on the plan
Limited number of COVID tests in CA
Turnaround time for test results

At the end of the parent team meeting I was just so devastated because what I saw was the best case plan for student-athletes in CA and probably the school district too. 

I left that Zoom meeting suspecting that while everyone is trying hard in my school district, the USA system has too many gaps in healthcare and COVID management for the academic year to be completed without large periods of virtual learning.  

Big downer - sorry everyone - 

Go Card!
Oh, and avoid visiting Southern California, the region and the school, for the next few months

There will not be a lack of interest among Pediatricians in doing health checks all day. Most medical practices are in danger of going under, especially Pediatric practices. Any business at all will make them happy.
It is difficult to NOT have medical coverage in California right now. And if you don't have coverage, you can go to a community clinic and get everything done at a rate commensurate with your income. We do sports checks including vaccines for as little as $25 and for a maximum of $125 at my community clinic job.
We can test far more patients in both of my jobs than we are currently testing. Capacity is high at this time.
We're turning Covid tests around in 12 hours at my clinic job and 18 hours at my other job. Maybe that isn't the situation where you are, but in Alameda County it's quick.

[OutsiderFan]

In March, my mantra was everyone should wear a mask. It took a little while (far too long that it should), but now it seems even the most pig-headed politicians like Texas Governor Greg Abbott have got the religion about them.

Now, my mantra is forget vaccine as solution. I have talked with three close friends about a vaccine, and between the 4 of us, none of us are going to get any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine unless it is proven effective and proves to have no side effects over at least a year after phase 3 trials. We are not anti-vaxers. We celebrate science and facts and hate anti-vax crowd in general. But we do not think it makes logical sense to get a vaccine that was rushed out and we literally don't have any evidence for its impact over enough time, when we don't even have great insight on long-term Covid-19 impacts. And, we all know if we are cautious and reduce risky behavior, we can avoid infection, because we have and don't intend to change our behavior any time soon. Even if restaurants and bars were open, we wouldn't be going to them. And none of us are going into offices or getting on planes either. I'm sure there are many, many people who think like these friends do, and then there are anti-vaxers on top of this. It's hard to imagine, even if enough vaccine was created and made available, that we could ever reach herd immunity needed for it to work.

What is this "Door #3" y'all are referencing?

[OutsiderFan]

In March, my mantra was everyone should wear a mask. It took a little while (far too long that it should), but now it seems even the most pig-headed politicians like Texas Governor Greg Abbott have got the religion about them.

Now, my mantra is forget vaccine as solution. I have talked with three close friends about a vaccine, and between the 4 of us, none of us are going to get any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine unless it is proven effective and proves to have no side effects over at least a year after phase 3 trials. We are not anti-vaxers. We celebrate science and facts and hate anti-vax crowd in general. But we do not think it makes logical sense to get a vaccine that was rushed out and we literally don't have any evidence for its impact over enough time, when we don't even have great insight on long-term Covid-19 impacts. And, we all know if we are cautious and reduce risky behavior, we can avoid infection, because we have and don't intend to change our behavior any time soon. Even if restaurants and bars were open, we wouldn't be going to them. And none of us are going into offices or getting on planes either. I'm sure there are many, many people who think like these friends do, and then there are anti-vaxers on top of this. It's hard to imagine, even if enough vaccine was created and made available, that we could ever reach herd immunity needed for it to work.

What is this "Door #3" y'all are referencing?

[Mick]

Oh, and avoid visiting Southern California, the region and the school, for the next few months

I'll inform my son.  He lives in Santa Monica.  417 cases in that city, 29 deaths.  12,947 tested.

In LA county, 107,887 COVID cases and 3,454 deaths as of yesterday.  Only 21 countries have had more deaths.

[Mick]

Oh, and avoid visiting Southern California, the region and the school, for the next few months

I'll inform my son.  He lives in Santa Monica.  417 cases in that city, 29 deaths.  12,947 tested.

In LA county, 107,887 COVID cases and 3,454 deaths as of yesterday.  Only 21 countries have had more deaths.

[dabigv13]

In March, my mantra was everyone should wear a mask. It took a little while (far too long that it should), but now it seems even the most pig-headed politicians like Texas Governor Greg Abbott have got the religion about them.

Now, my mantra is forget vaccine as solution. I have talked with three close friends about a vaccine, and between the 4 of us, none of us are going to get any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine unless it is proven effective and proves to have no side effects over at least a year after phase 3 trials. We are not anti-vaxers. We celebrate science and facts and hate anti-vax crowd in general. But we do not think it makes logical sense to get a vaccine that was rushed out and we literally don't have any evidence for its impact over enough time, when we don't even have great insight on long-term Covid-19 impacts. And, we all know if we are cautious and reduce risky behavior, we can avoid infection, because we have and don't intend to change our behavior any time soon. Even if restaurants and bars were open, we wouldn't be going to them. And none of us are going into offices or getting on planes either. I'm sure there are many, many people who think like these friends do, and then there are anti-vaxers on top of this. It's hard to imagine, even if enough vaccine was created and made available, that we could ever reach herd immunity needed for it to work.

What is this "Door #3" y'all are referencing?

This is ludicrous. You won't grow a third arm from getting the vaccine. You might have a fever or a rash.

[dabigv13]

In March, my mantra was everyone should wear a mask. It took a little while (far too long that it should), but now it seems even the most pig-headed politicians like Texas Governor Greg Abbott have got the religion about them.

Now, my mantra is forget vaccine as solution. I have talked with three close friends about a vaccine, and between the 4 of us, none of us are going to get any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine unless it is proven effective and proves to have no side effects over at least a year after phase 3 trials. We are not anti-vaxers. We celebrate science and facts and hate anti-vax crowd in general. But we do not think it makes logical sense to get a vaccine that was rushed out and we literally don't have any evidence for its impact over enough time, when we don't even have great insight on long-term Covid-19 impacts. And, we all know if we are cautious and reduce risky behavior, we can avoid infection, because we have and don't intend to change our behavior any time soon. Even if restaurants and bars were open, we wouldn't be going to them. And none of us are going into offices or getting on planes either. I'm sure there are many, many people who think like these friends do, and then there are anti-vaxers on top of this. It's hard to imagine, even if enough vaccine was created and made available, that we could ever reach herd immunity needed for it to work.

What is this "Door #3" y'all are referencing?

This is ludicrous. You won't grow a third arm from getting the vaccine. You might have a fever or a rash.

[Farm93]

There will not be a lack of interest among Pediatricians in doing health checks all day. Most medical practices are in danger of going under, especially Pediatric practices. Any business at all will make them happy.
It is difficult to NOT have medical coverage in California right now. And if you don't have coverage, you can go to a community clinic and get everything done at a rate commensurate with your income. We do sports checks including vaccines for as little as $25 and for a maximum of $125 at my community clinic job.
We can test far more patients in both of my jobs than we are currently testing. Capacity is high at this time.
We're turning Covid tests around in 12 hours at my clinic job and 18 hours at my other job. Maybe that isn't the situation where you are, but in Alameda County it's quick.

Quick comment before the full run. 
We all have to stop using the SF Bay Area as the USA norm.   There are many places in the USA where COVID results take multiple days.   COVID will spread first and best in the areas with weak infrastructure on COVID. 

So let's imagine we are somewhere in the Inland Empire where loads of workers shouldn't really be in the USA, and many families don't have $25 to spend on multiple MD checks a month.

I will lay out the scenario, since it is rather likely.

It is October and the flu season is picking up.
Each day your office gets its dozens of daily cough check requests too from frustrated parents.
For you see as soon as a child has any symptoms that could be COVID, their children are banned from sports.
(I fear/assume the same will hold true for the classroom).
If an MD clears them they can return after 72 hours.
If an MD does not clear them they must wait two weeks.

Now, as a parent who wants to keep running to an MD every day the child has a cough or two?   

$25 sounds OK, if it was a one time deal.   Imagine your child is a bit prone to coughing from time to time.  You'd be sitting on $25 checks every few weeks, hours of time spent going to the MD with each event AND at least three days of lost practice/school and likely work too.  The child is also losing out on practice/school time too.   The families definitely will start hiding coughs and other cold like symptoms, especially if they think COVID is not a big deal, rather than repeat that cycle more than once or twice.

It is not just the $25.   For many workers they don't get sick pay, they certainly don't get family sick pay.   So there are the costs of the copay, lost wages and likely a termination notice after a few cycles of this.

My children's MD here in OC is booked out for visits at least a week or more, which is not ideal in this situation.   For my older HS child we literally just took a zoom meeting two days out rather than accept an in office appointment 8 days out.   This isn't like a pre-sport physical.   You'd want the MD visit ASAP because until an in office visit the family is losing school/sport time and lost caregiver wages.

If no visit the child must be out for 14 days, so once flagged/identified there would be some urgency to getting cleared ASAP.

The whole system is predicated on the idea that excluding patients with COVID like symptomatic students will be sufficient, which seems flawed since COVID is a more formidable opponent.

So my depression centered on the idea that the system really puts a number of new burdens on families (and doctors) to keep confirming that common child ailments are not COVID.   And with each experience the families will have to pay a copay, miss work and school, and lose wages.  

A lot of families in the USA can't do that financially.  So you'd have to suspect some families will then work diligently to hide or ignore symptoms which would seem to run counter the whole program.

And all of this assumes some level of belief that COVID is a real concern.

We live in a country where 30-50% of the adults find wearing a mask too much of a burden. 

Can you imagine the compliance for something like this? 
I can, hence the depression.

[Farm93]

There will not be a lack of interest among Pediatricians in doing health checks all day. Most medical practices are in danger of going under, especially Pediatric practices. Any business at all will make them happy.
It is difficult to NOT have medical coverage in California right now. And if you don't have coverage, you can go to a community clinic and get everything done at a rate commensurate with your income. We do sports checks including vaccines for as little as $25 and for a maximum of $125 at my community clinic job.
We can test far more patients in both of my jobs than we are currently testing. Capacity is high at this time.
We're turning Covid tests around in 12 hours at my clinic job and 18 hours at my other job. Maybe that isn't the situation where you are, but in Alameda County it's quick.

Quick comment before the full run. 
We all have to stop using the SF Bay Area as the USA norm.   There are many places in the USA where COVID results take multiple days.   COVID will spread first and best in the areas with weak infrastructure on COVID. 

So let's imagine we are somewhere in the Inland Empire where loads of workers shouldn't really be in the USA, and many families don't have $25 to spend on multiple MD checks a month.

I will lay out the scenario, since it is rather likely.

It is October and the flu season is picking up.
Each day your office gets its dozens of daily cough check requests too from frustrated parents.
For you see as soon as a child has any symptoms that could be COVID, their children are banned from sports.
(I fear/assume the same will hold true for the classroom).
If an MD clears them they can return after 72 hours.
If an MD does not clear them they must wait two weeks.

Now, as a parent who wants to keep running to an MD every day the child has a cough or two?   

$25 sounds OK, if it was a one time deal.   Imagine your child is a bit prone to coughing from time to time.  You'd be sitting on $25 checks every few weeks, hours of time spent going to the MD with each event AND at least three days of lost practice/school and likely work too.  The child is also losing out on practice/school time too.   The families definitely will start hiding coughs and other cold like symptoms, especially if they think COVID is not a big deal, rather than repeat that cycle more than once or twice.

It is not just the $25.   For many workers they don't get sick pay, they certainly don't get family sick pay.   So there are the costs of the copay, lost wages and likely a termination notice after a few cycles of this.

My children's MD here in OC is booked out for visits at least a week or more, which is not ideal in this situation.   For my older HS child we literally just took a zoom meeting two days out rather than accept an in office appointment 8 days out.   This isn't like a pre-sport physical.   You'd want the MD visit ASAP because until an in office visit the family is losing school/sport time and lost caregiver wages.

If no visit the child must be out for 14 days, so once flagged/identified there would be some urgency to getting cleared ASAP.

The whole system is predicated on the idea that excluding patients with COVID like symptomatic students will be sufficient, which seems flawed since COVID is a more formidable opponent.

So my depression centered on the idea that the system really puts a number of new burdens on families (and doctors) to keep confirming that common child ailments are not COVID.   And with each experience the families will have to pay a copay, miss work and school, and lose wages.  

A lot of families in the USA can't do that financially.  So you'd have to suspect some families will then work diligently to hide or ignore symptoms which would seem to run counter the whole program.

And all of this assumes some level of belief that COVID is a real concern.

We live in a country where 30-50% of the adults find wearing a mask too much of a burden. 

Can you imagine the compliance for something like this? 
I can, hence the depression.

[Goose]

In March, my mantra was everyone should wear a mask. It took a little while (far too long that it should), but now it seems even the most pig-headed politicians like Texas Governor Greg Abbott have got the religion about them.

Now, my mantra is forget vaccine as solution. I have talked with three close friends about a vaccine, and between the 4 of us, none of us are going to get any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine unless it is proven effective and proves to have no side effects over at least a year after phase 3 trials. We are not anti-vaxers. We celebrate science and facts and hate anti-vax crowd in general. But we do not think it makes logical sense to get a vaccine that was rushed out and we literally don't have any evidence for its impact over enough time, when we don't even have great insight on long-term Covid-19 impacts. And, we all know if we are cautious and reduce risky behavior, we can avoid infection, because we have and don't intend to change our behavior any time soon. Even if restaurants and bars were open, we wouldn't be going to them. And none of us are going into offices or getting on planes either. I'm sure there are many, many people who think like these friends do, and then there are anti-vaxers on top of this. It's hard to imagine, even if enough vaccine was created and made available, that we could ever reach herd immunity needed for it to work.

What is this "Door #3" y'all are referencing?

OF, I posted the FDA guidelines yesterday. https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19995 I think that if you read them you might have more confidence in the safety of any vaccine(s) that are approved. One reason I posted this reference is exactly what you are saying. Safety is a concern and we need to know that there are no crazy shortcuts being taken in granting approval. The FDA has a tough balancing act on something like this, so it is great they got this out before the pressure to approve just anything is present. That day might come, and they need to stand their ground. Having a stake in the sand early on will certainly help them do that.

That said, I too don't think the nation should pin all, or even most, of our hopes on the development of a vaccine in the very near future. It may happen, but the safety considerations require testing that simply takes time. Fauci has been optimistic on what is possible, but development of virtually anything takes longer than forecast. There will be setbacks. It is always harder than it looks. I don't think our society will wait until 2021 for a "fix", based on what we are seeing to date.

That is why I favor an all-out attempt to contain the virus through massive track and trace. This approach requires some level of cooperation from the public but not perfect cooperation. That lesser level of cooperation we may be able to get. If we can slap a quarantine on everybody who is a contact of each new positive case pretty reliably, we can keep the disease at a manageable level indefinitely. This will be lots bigger than the efforts in Taiwan or Korea etc. , because they are containing a lower level of underlying disease.  We never got down to that level, and appear unable to do so. That is why we are going to need a lot more of a containment effort than other nations. This is the typical US method of doing things. Hit it with overwhelming force after other attempts have failed.

Maybe not the best way to go about it, but it can be made to work. If a vaccine comes along and cuts down on the disease level, so much the better. The public apparently isn't going to deliver the level of cooperation needed to drop the disease level, and the politicians are not willing (or probably able) to deliver enough coercive force to make them do so. It is also economically impractical to SIP until there is a vaccine. So IMHO a big containment force is the only way to go.

[Goose]

In March, my mantra was everyone should wear a mask. It took a little while (far too long that it should), but now it seems even the most pig-headed politicians like Texas Governor Greg Abbott have got the religion about them.

Now, my mantra is forget vaccine as solution. I have talked with three close friends about a vaccine, and between the 4 of us, none of us are going to get any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine unless it is proven effective and proves to have no side effects over at least a year after phase 3 trials. We are not anti-vaxers. We celebrate science and facts and hate anti-vax crowd in general. But we do not think it makes logical sense to get a vaccine that was rushed out and we literally don't have any evidence for its impact over enough time, when we don't even have great insight on long-term Covid-19 impacts. And, we all know if we are cautious and reduce risky behavior, we can avoid infection, because we have and don't intend to change our behavior any time soon. Even if restaurants and bars were open, we wouldn't be going to them. And none of us are going into offices or getting on planes either. I'm sure there are many, many people who think like these friends do, and then there are anti-vaxers on top of this. It's hard to imagine, even if enough vaccine was created and made available, that we could ever reach herd immunity needed for it to work.

What is this "Door #3" y'all are referencing?

OF, I posted the FDA guidelines yesterday. https://thecardboard.org/board/showthread.php?tid=19995 I think that if you read them you might have more confidence in the safety of any vaccine(s) that are approved. One reason I posted this reference is exactly what you are saying. Safety is a concern and we need to know that there are no crazy shortcuts being taken in granting approval. The FDA has a tough balancing act on something like this, so it is great they got this out before the pressure to approve just anything is present. That day might come, and they need to stand their ground. Having a stake in the sand early on will certainly help them do that.

That said, I too don't think the nation should pin all, or even most, of our hopes on the development of a vaccine in the very near future. It may happen, but the safety considerations require testing that simply takes time. Fauci has been optimistic on what is possible, but development of virtually anything takes longer than forecast. There will be setbacks. It is always harder than it looks. I don't think our society will wait until 2021 for a "fix", based on what we are seeing to date.

That is why I favor an all-out attempt to contain the virus through massive track and trace. This approach requires some level of cooperation from the public but not perfect cooperation. That lesser level of cooperation we may be able to get. If we can slap a quarantine on everybody who is a contact of each new positive case pretty reliably, we can keep the disease at a manageable level indefinitely. This will be lots bigger than the efforts in Taiwan or Korea etc. , because they are containing a lower level of underlying disease.  We never got down to that level, and appear unable to do so. That is why we are going to need a lot more of a containment effort than other nations. This is the typical US method of doing things. Hit it with overwhelming force after other attempts have failed.

Maybe not the best way to go about it, but it can be made to work. If a vaccine comes along and cuts down on the disease level, so much the better. The public apparently isn't going to deliver the level of cooperation needed to drop the disease level, and the politicians are not willing (or probably able) to deliver enough coercive force to make them do so. It is also economically impractical to SIP until there is a vaccine. So IMHO a big containment force is the only way to go.

[OutsiderFan]

In March, my mantra was everyone should wear a mask. It took a little while (far too long that it should), but now it seems even the most pig-headed politicians like Texas Governor Greg Abbott have got the religion about them.

Now, my mantra is forget vaccine as solution. I have talked with three close friends about a vaccine, and between the 4 of us, none of us are going to get any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine unless it is proven effective and proves to have no side effects over at least a year after phase 3 trials. We are not anti-vaxers. We celebrate science and facts and hate anti-vax crowd in general. But we do not think it makes logical sense to get a vaccine that was rushed out and we literally don't have any evidence for its impact over enough time, when we don't even have great insight on long-term Covid-19 impacts. And, we all know if we are cautious and reduce risky behavior, we can avoid infection, because we have and don't intend to change our behavior any time soon. Even if restaurants and bars were open, we wouldn't be going to them. And none of us are going into offices or getting on planes either. I'm sure there are many, many people who think like these friends do, and then there are anti-vaxers on top of this. It's hard to imagine, even if enough vaccine was created and made available, that we could ever reach herd immunity needed for it to work.

What is this "Door #3" y'all are referencing?

This is ludicrous. You won't grow a third arm from getting the vaccine. You might have a fever or a rash.

It may be ludicrous. I'm just trying to be realistic about what is the best path to ending this pandemic. I don't think a vaccine is the answer, and I gave a few reasons why.

[OutsiderFan]

In March, my mantra was everyone should wear a mask. It took a little while (far too long that it should), but now it seems even the most pig-headed politicians like Texas Governor Greg Abbott have got the religion about them.

Now, my mantra is forget vaccine as solution. I have talked with three close friends about a vaccine, and between the 4 of us, none of us are going to get any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine unless it is proven effective and proves to have no side effects over at least a year after phase 3 trials. We are not anti-vaxers. We celebrate science and facts and hate anti-vax crowd in general. But we do not think it makes logical sense to get a vaccine that was rushed out and we literally don't have any evidence for its impact over enough time, when we don't even have great insight on long-term Covid-19 impacts. And, we all know if we are cautious and reduce risky behavior, we can avoid infection, because we have and don't intend to change our behavior any time soon. Even if restaurants and bars were open, we wouldn't be going to them. And none of us are going into offices or getting on planes either. I'm sure there are many, many people who think like these friends do, and then there are anti-vaxers on top of this. It's hard to imagine, even if enough vaccine was created and made available, that we could ever reach herd immunity needed for it to work.

What is this "Door #3" y'all are referencing?

This is ludicrous. You won't grow a third arm from getting the vaccine. You might have a fever or a rash.

It may be ludicrous. I'm just trying to be realistic about what is the best path to ending this pandemic. I don't think a vaccine is the answer, and I gave a few reasons why.

[UltimateCard]

Might this be reason for optimism - cheap, in-home paper strip test for the virus?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/opini...tests.html

[UltimateCard]

Might this be reason for optimism - cheap, in-home paper strip test for the virus?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/opini...tests.html

[Mick]

In March, my mantra was everyone should wear a mask. It took a little while (far too long that it should), but now it seems even the most pig-headed politicians like Texas Governor Greg Abbott have got the religion about them.

Now, my mantra is forget vaccine as solution. I have talked with three close friends about a vaccine, and between the 4 of us, none of us are going to get any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine unless it is proven effective and proves to have no side effects over at least a year after phase 3 trials. We are not anti-vaxers. We celebrate science and facts and hate anti-vax crowd in general. But we do not think it makes logical sense to get a vaccine that was rushed out and we literally don't have any evidence for its impact over enough time, when we don't even have great insight on long-term Covid-19 impacts. And, we all know if we are cautious and reduce risky behavior, we can avoid infection, because we have and don't intend to change our behavior any time soon. Even if restaurants and bars were open, we wouldn't be going to them. And none of us are going into offices or getting on planes either. I'm sure there are many, many people who think like these friends do, and then there are anti-vaxers on top of this. It's hard to imagine, even if enough vaccine was created and made available, that we could ever reach herd immunity needed for it to work.

What is this "Door #3" y'all are referencing?

I highlighted Farm93's three options in red:
 1) Wait for a miracle
 2) A vaccine
 3) A new POTUS (a/k/a "door #3)

Mick Wrote:  

(Yesterday, 03:24 am)Farm93 Wrote:  The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

I think we're headed for door #3, brother.  At that point, our COVID-19 ship will have run aground.

[Mick]

In March, my mantra was everyone should wear a mask. It took a little while (far too long that it should), but now it seems even the most pig-headed politicians like Texas Governor Greg Abbott have got the religion about them.

Now, my mantra is forget vaccine as solution. I have talked with three close friends about a vaccine, and between the 4 of us, none of us are going to get any SARS-CoV-2 vaccine unless it is proven effective and proves to have no side effects over at least a year after phase 3 trials. We are not anti-vaxers. We celebrate science and facts and hate anti-vax crowd in general. But we do not think it makes logical sense to get a vaccine that was rushed out and we literally don't have any evidence for its impact over enough time, when we don't even have great insight on long-term Covid-19 impacts. And, we all know if we are cautious and reduce risky behavior, we can avoid infection, because we have and don't intend to change our behavior any time soon. Even if restaurants and bars were open, we wouldn't be going to them. And none of us are going into offices or getting on planes either. I'm sure there are many, many people who think like these friends do, and then there are anti-vaxers on top of this. It's hard to imagine, even if enough vaccine was created and made available, that we could ever reach herd immunity needed for it to work.

What is this "Door #3" y'all are referencing?

I highlighted Farm93's three options in red:
 1) Wait for a miracle
 2) A vaccine
 3) A new POTUS (a/k/a "door #3)

Mick Wrote:  

(Yesterday, 03:24 am)Farm93 Wrote:  The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

I think we're headed for door #3, brother.  At that point, our COVID-19 ship will have run aground.