11-08-2011, 09:32 PM
The suggestion I've seen in some places is that the Stanford secondary is a liability that will be exploited through the air. This is probably incorrect--if the secondary is exploited, it'll be on the ground, since Kelly's offense is basically run-oriented. The other issue is that Darron Thomas has had a wildly bipolar season this year.
Last year, Thomas statistically (passing-wise) had a pretty consistent season. At home he averaged 8.38 yards per attempt, with about 2.5% of his passes going for picks and 9.1% going for touchdowns; on the road, his yards per attempt dipped to 7.49, with about 1.2% of his passes going for picks and 7.3% going for touchdowns. His passing percentage dips more precipitously, from 65.2% at home to 57.1% on the road.
This year, Thomas looks much more volatile. Some might blame Thomas's injury; if that's the case, it makes the dichotomy between his road and home performances all the more amazing. Thomas was injured in the Arizona State game, at Autzen, and played against Wazzu, injured, at Autzen. So the injury should be depressing his home numbers; nevertheless, they are dramatically better than his home numbers. At home, he's a 65.2% passer with an 11 yards per attempt; on the road, he's a 55.6% passer with 5.15 yards per attempt. (his TD/picks percentages, as it does last year, also show precipitous declines to each on the road). To put this in context, Thomas turns into a less-interception-prone Zach Maynard on the road in 2011. (By the way--Thomas's numbers against ranked teams are better: he's a 62% passer but a 6 yards per attempt.)
For whatever reason, Thomas has been pretty mediocre as a passer on the road and against ranked teams, and this hasn't gotten enough attention.
Last year, Thomas statistically (passing-wise) had a pretty consistent season. At home he averaged 8.38 yards per attempt, with about 2.5% of his passes going for picks and 9.1% going for touchdowns; on the road, his yards per attempt dipped to 7.49, with about 1.2% of his passes going for picks and 7.3% going for touchdowns. His passing percentage dips more precipitously, from 65.2% at home to 57.1% on the road.
This year, Thomas looks much more volatile. Some might blame Thomas's injury; if that's the case, it makes the dichotomy between his road and home performances all the more amazing. Thomas was injured in the Arizona State game, at Autzen, and played against Wazzu, injured, at Autzen. So the injury should be depressing his home numbers; nevertheless, they are dramatically better than his home numbers. At home, he's a 65.2% passer with an 11 yards per attempt; on the road, he's a 55.6% passer with 5.15 yards per attempt. (his TD/picks percentages, as it does last year, also show precipitous declines to each on the road). To put this in context, Thomas turns into a less-interception-prone Zach Maynard on the road in 2011. (By the way--Thomas's numbers against ranked teams are better: he's a 62% passer but a 6 yards per attempt.)
For whatever reason, Thomas has been pretty mediocre as a passer on the road and against ranked teams, and this hasn't gotten enough attention.