01-27-2022, 12:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-27-2022, 02:57 PM by ColoradoTree.)
The #16 Stanford women's tennis team kicks off the spring season in earnest this weekend (sorry, UC Davis, no offense), as they travel to Charlottesville, VA for two matches. Up first is Arkansas, who is unranked as a team but is usually on the NCAA bubble, so they're no pushover. If Stanford wins, they'll play the winner of 9th-ranked and host UVA and James Madison (so, UVA). At stake is one berth at the ITA Indoor Nationals, hosted by the University of Wisconsin on February 11-14, 2022. Making it to Indoor Nationals and then doing reasonably well there is one of those scheduling bets that Lele has been making the last few years to ensure a good ranking heading into NCAAs, since our non-conference schedule is often lighter than most other top teams. (That said, with the Pac-12 looking tougher than usual this year, the fact that we'll play UVA/Texas/Pepperdine out of conference is probably enough good matches, depending on how well we do in them.)
Arkansas (3-0)
Friday, Jan. 28 at 6pm ET/3pm PT
The Razorbacks are undefeated, but they haven't really played anybody, either. There's a reason this is called Kick-Off Weekend; teams usually come in with some warm-up matches under their belts, but it's rare to have a match of the caliber of Cal-Pepperdine having already been played. Arkansas does not currently have any ranked singles players or doubles teams, but English sophomore Indianna Spink was ranked #26 in the preseason. Spink played #1 last year as a freshman, but this year she's been playing #2, so Yepifanova will have her work cut out for her. At #1 is 5th year Tatum Rice, who played #3 singles for the Razorbacks last season but who has played #1 in the past for them. Junior Kelley Keller, last year's #2, is now playing #3, so a little bit of shuffling atop that lineup.
Prediction: Stanford wins 4-0. I figure doubles and depth will get us to four even if some of the top matches remain undecided. But I feel like every player in our singles lineup should win--whether they do is obviously a different matter.
Live video: https://virginiasports.com/womens-live-tennis-video/
Live stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=381665
#9 Virginia (3-0)
If we beat Arkansas, this match will be Saturday, Jan. 28 at 3:30pm ET/12:30pm PT
UVA is one of the very best teams in the country, and it starts with the top of their lineup--the preseason #1 player and reigning NCAA singles champion, sophomore Emma Navarro. She's currently unranked, but that's due to her playing pro events in the fall rather than the usual fall college slate. Their singles lineup is outstanding at the top:
1. Emma Navarro (So., preseason #1)
2. #90 Elaine Chervinsky (Fr.)
3. #29 Natasha Subhash (Jr., preseason #8)
And that's not including #66 Melodie Collard, who is the 3rd-ranked newcomer and came in an even higher-ranked recruit than Chervinsky, but who hasn't played in one of the Hoos' three dual matches so far this year. Not sure if she's hurt, but if she's healthy, I'd expect her to slot in at 2 and push everyone else down. The rest of their lineup isn't bad, by any means, but it's unsettled--lots of movement around.
This is a good doubles team, too. We've got a lot of fresh blood on our team, so who knows how they do, but UVA has had more success with it than we have in recent seasons.
Prediction: Stanford wins 4-3. UVA takes a tight doubles point and ultimately gets wins at #1 and #4, with Navarro and Subhash beating Ma and Xu in tight matches, respectively. (It's hard to imagine Subhash as only the 4th-best player on that team, but she's been behind Chervinsky in all three matches so far.) But our depth saves us, as Yepifanova wins the battle of highly-touted freshmen over Collard at #2, Blake takes care of Chervinsky at line 3, and we get wins from Geller at 5 and either Houghton or Choy at 6. With a win here, Stanford serves notice that they're a force to be reckoned with this year. It would go down as a brobdingnagian upset by some commentators' reckoning, but only a minor one according to others who think this match is more of a pick-'em. Either team could end up winning by 4-1 or so, of course, depending on how doubles goes and how quickly some of the matches go. (We could win the doubles point, and if we do, it obviously opens things up. I suspect we're better at doubles this year than last year.) But if all the matches got played out, this feels like a 4-3 or 5-2 match either way. A massive dual match test for our freshmen, and I'm betting they acquit themselves well--it's just that they'll likely be going up against two preseason top ten players in Navarro and Subhash. My confidence in predicting us to beat Arkansas is sky-high, but this is a very tentative prediction from me. Even if you view Stanford as better than #16, this is still a coin flip kind of match, and it's on UVA's home court. They have to be the favorite coming in, but we've got a good chance. The fun thing about freshmen is that you never know, and the terrifying thing about freshmen is that you never know. Could Ma beat Navarro? Sure! I'd be surprised but not shocked--Ma is terrific. Could Xu beat Subhash? Maybe! Yepifanova beat Subhash 6-3, 6-3 in the consolation semifinals at ITA Fall Nationals, so no reason to think it won't be at least competitive.
Arkansas (3-0)
Friday, Jan. 28 at 6pm ET/3pm PT
The Razorbacks are undefeated, but they haven't really played anybody, either. There's a reason this is called Kick-Off Weekend; teams usually come in with some warm-up matches under their belts, but it's rare to have a match of the caliber of Cal-Pepperdine having already been played. Arkansas does not currently have any ranked singles players or doubles teams, but English sophomore Indianna Spink was ranked #26 in the preseason. Spink played #1 last year as a freshman, but this year she's been playing #2, so Yepifanova will have her work cut out for her. At #1 is 5th year Tatum Rice, who played #3 singles for the Razorbacks last season but who has played #1 in the past for them. Junior Kelley Keller, last year's #2, is now playing #3, so a little bit of shuffling atop that lineup.
Prediction: Stanford wins 4-0. I figure doubles and depth will get us to four even if some of the top matches remain undecided. But I feel like every player in our singles lineup should win--whether they do is obviously a different matter.
Live video: https://virginiasports.com/womens-live-tennis-video/
Live stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=381665
#9 Virginia (3-0)
If we beat Arkansas, this match will be Saturday, Jan. 28 at 3:30pm ET/12:30pm PT
UVA is one of the very best teams in the country, and it starts with the top of their lineup--the preseason #1 player and reigning NCAA singles champion, sophomore Emma Navarro. She's currently unranked, but that's due to her playing pro events in the fall rather than the usual fall college slate. Their singles lineup is outstanding at the top:
1. Emma Navarro (So., preseason #1)
2. #90 Elaine Chervinsky (Fr.)
3. #29 Natasha Subhash (Jr., preseason #8)
And that's not including #66 Melodie Collard, who is the 3rd-ranked newcomer and came in an even higher-ranked recruit than Chervinsky, but who hasn't played in one of the Hoos' three dual matches so far this year. Not sure if she's hurt, but if she's healthy, I'd expect her to slot in at 2 and push everyone else down. The rest of their lineup isn't bad, by any means, but it's unsettled--lots of movement around.
This is a good doubles team, too. We've got a lot of fresh blood on our team, so who knows how they do, but UVA has had more success with it than we have in recent seasons.
Prediction: Stanford wins 4-3. UVA takes a tight doubles point and ultimately gets wins at #1 and #4, with Navarro and Subhash beating Ma and Xu in tight matches, respectively. (It's hard to imagine Subhash as only the 4th-best player on that team, but she's been behind Chervinsky in all three matches so far.) But our depth saves us, as Yepifanova wins the battle of highly-touted freshmen over Collard at #2, Blake takes care of Chervinsky at line 3, and we get wins from Geller at 5 and either Houghton or Choy at 6. With a win here, Stanford serves notice that they're a force to be reckoned with this year. It would go down as a brobdingnagian upset by some commentators' reckoning, but only a minor one according to others who think this match is more of a pick-'em. Either team could end up winning by 4-1 or so, of course, depending on how doubles goes and how quickly some of the matches go. (We could win the doubles point, and if we do, it obviously opens things up. I suspect we're better at doubles this year than last year.) But if all the matches got played out, this feels like a 4-3 or 5-2 match either way. A massive dual match test for our freshmen, and I'm betting they acquit themselves well--it's just that they'll likely be going up against two preseason top ten players in Navarro and Subhash. My confidence in predicting us to beat Arkansas is sky-high, but this is a very tentative prediction from me. Even if you view Stanford as better than #16, this is still a coin flip kind of match, and it's on UVA's home court. They have to be the favorite coming in, but we've got a good chance. The fun thing about freshmen is that you never know, and the terrifying thing about freshmen is that you never know. Could Ma beat Navarro? Sure! I'd be surprised but not shocked--Ma is terrific. Could Xu beat Subhash? Maybe! Yepifanova beat Subhash 6-3, 6-3 in the consolation semifinals at ITA Fall Nationals, so no reason to think it won't be at least competitive.
