Posts: 576
Threads: 4
Joined: Nov 2021
The teams in the Final Four should provide compelling entertaining, high -evel basketball, perhaps better than some random midseason Orlando Magic v. Charlotte Hornets game. The best paid college players do not make anything close to the best paid NBA players, but are paid better than UDFAs, so why not hop and shop schools as long as you can?
I've stopped watching college hoops other than when it just happens to be on in the background (bar, restaurant) so when we did our brackets, I looked for a way to fill it out without knowing much about the state of college basketball. I mean how does one stand a chance against Kathleen from accounting who knows nothing about basketball and just picks chalk. Yeah, she won last year and will win this year.
I've tried coin flips beyond the 1/16 matchup. Less than 50% success rate. I tried joining forces with the engineers who helped me develop Markov models for stochastic rainfall, repurposing 12-hour storm duration libraries for 12-seed historic performances randomly sampled with power indices. What a waste of time. I had my granddaughter pick last year and she had both of the packs of wolves going all the way before picking blue over red because wolves are in many of her books and Bluey! She did not do horribly, but out of the money.
This year, I went 20 years in the past, filled the bracket in how it happened then based solely on region and seed (like one sample out of all the random distributions I could have spent more than five minutes putting together), and then filled in this year's teams by seed and region. So, a Final Four of Michigan, Maryland, Duke, and Houston with some juicy upsets like McNeese (where per our bracket things are won or lost) along the way. Totally plausible and based on historic performance. It placed a lot of faith in seeding and wasn't intended to get it right, just more right than everyone else.
I am currently in 13th place near the top of the red shading for "eliminated from contention." What worked two decades ago no longer applies. College sport is basically all Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers, all the time. They are quickly figuring out how to kill what once made it great, which lead to all that loose change in the first place.